Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
424 am EST Tuesday Dec 1 2015
a ridge of high pressure will move east of the region today. A
warm front will move northeast from the Middle Atlantic States and
will bring rain to the north country later today and tonight. A
frontal system will move into the region on Wednesday and will
stall as a wave of low pressure moves northeast from the Middle
Atlantic States. This low pressure area will bring more rain to
the north country Wednesday and Wednesday night. A closed upper
low will move east from the Great Lakes Wednesday night and will
be over the north country on Thursday. This upper low will bring
in colder air aloft late Wednesday night and Thursday...with rain
changing to snow over the higher elevations late Wednesday night.
There will be a chance of rain and snow showers on Thursday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 424 am EST Tuesday...skies will start out partly sunny
early this morning...but with increasing cloudiness through the
day as warm front moves northeast from the Middle Atlantic States.
Composite radar loop showing precipitation across the lower Hudson
Valley in New York at this time. This will be slow to move
northward as it encounters drier air further north. Precipitation
could start as a brief period of sleet or freezing rain across
southern Vermont and a portion of the Adirondacks late this
morning...but this should quickly change over to plain rain as
surface temperatures warm above freezing and warmer air aloft also
coming in as well. Thus...have not put up any advisories at this
time...as any mixed precipitation likely to be very brief. Any
mixed precipitation could be handled by a Special Weather
Statement if needed. Expecting most of the precipitation will
arrive into the region this afternoon...and by that time surface
temperatures will likely be above freezing in most areas.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday/...
as of 424 am EST Tuesday...expecting rain across the region with
temperatures remaining above freezing and a frontal system moves
into the region from the Great Lakes. This frontal system will
stall across the region on Wednesday as a wave of low pressure
moves northeast from the Middle Atlantic States on
Wednesday...bringing more rain to the north country. Rain is
expected to linger into Wednesday night...but will change to snow
late Wednesday night across the higher elevations of the
Adirondacks and Green Mountains as a closed upper low moving east
from the Great Lakes will provide dynamical cooling aloft. This
closed upper low will be over the north country on Thursday...with
snow showers over the higher elevations and rain and snow showers
in valley locations on Thursday.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 316 am EST Tuesday...Thursday night through Monday
night...mild and dry weather overall for the extended portion of
the forecast. On Thursday night there will be some lingering
upslope northwesterly flow snow showers as low continues to move
eastward and away from the region. A weak shortwave passes across
our northern zones Friday...and have continued with mention of
chance snow showers in the higher elevations. Upper level dynamics
are weak though...so only expect some scattered snow showers and
not really producing much accumulations. Large scale surface and
upper level ridge will then build into the region from Saturday
Onward. This will provide the north country with mild and dry
weather. Temperatures will run at least five degrees above normal
through the period.
Aviation /09z Tuesday through Saturday/...
through 06z Wednesday...clouds increase today from the
south/southwest ahead of our next system but remain VFR until
around 18z. After that MVFR ceilings will start to move in and
could become IFR during the heaviest rain this afternoon and
evening. Along with this rain will move into the area around 15z-
17z and could have impacts on visibility very late in the period.
There is a potential for a short lived period of freezing rain at
mpv/slk as the rain first starts but should switch over to rain as
the temperatures warm slightly with the southwesterly flow. Winds
are light and variable overnight, then increasing to 5-10 knots
from the south/southwest after 14z Tuesday.
Outlook 00z Wednesday through Saturday... 06z Thursday - 00z Friday...VFR
deteriorating to MVFR/IFR as low pressure system tracks through
the region. Rain transitions to snow showers Wednesday night through
Thursday before ending.
00z Friday - 12z Friday...mainly VFR under brief high pressure.
12z Friday - 12z Sat...MVFR/local IFR in scattered snow showers.
12z Sat - 00z sun...trending to VFR under building high pressure.