Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
815 PM EDT Friday Sep 19 2014
high pressure will continue to bring dry weather to the north
country tonight...but temperatures will not be as cold as last
night. Looking for warmer...windier...and wetter conditions this
weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 60s to lower
70s. Winds will be increasing during the day on Saturday with
gusts in the 30 to 40 miles per hour range. Eventually rain will move in late
Saturday night and especially throughout the day on Sunday with
widespread rain expected Sunday afternoon and night.
Near term /until 8 am Saturday morning/...
as of 730 PM EDT Friday...forecast remains in good shape as we
progress into the evening hours. Clear skies will gradually give
way to some high clouds (especially north) overnight as surface
high pressure slides offshore as south/southwesterly return flow
begins in earnest aloft...not as much at the surface. Nonetheless
readings will be milder tonight than last night given warm thermal
response through the 925-850 mb level. Stuck close to latest rap
500 mb relative humidity forecasts which appears to be handling thicker middle level
clouds off to our north...and its subsequent progression rather
well this evening. Lows remain on track...ranging from the middle to
upper 30s in eastern Vermont...upper 30s to lower 40s dacks...and solidly
in the 40s for the Champlain and St Lawrence valleys. Have a great
Short term /8 am Saturday morning through Sunday night/...
as of 336 PM EDT Friday...pressure gradient will continue to
strengthen from the south and southwest during the day on
Saturday. While this will promote low level warm air
advection...breezy to windy conditions will develop. So while
highs will be in the middle 60s to the lower 70s...the winds will not
allow for it to feel that warm with gusts in the 25 to 35 miles per hour
range and even some 40 miles per hour gusts in the Saint Lawrence valley. Dry
weather is expected during the day on Saturday...but that will
change as an upper level trough of low pressure develops over the
upper Midwest. This feature will begin to sharpen up Saturday
night which will ultimately slow the onset of the precipitation
down. Can see a chance of showers late Saturday night over
northern New York...but the steadier and more widespread showers
will not move into the entire area until later Sunday morning
through Sunday night. The clouds and gusty winds Saturday night
will keep low temperatures well above normal...so it will not take
much on Sunday for highs to get right back into the middle 60s to
lower 70s. The upper trough will be slow to move east of the area
Sunday night...so showers should be fairly widespread Sunday
evening before gradually tapering off after midnight.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
as of 336 PM EDT Friday...northwest flow aloft will exist over the
area Monday and Tuesday. There may be some lingering showers
Monday morning...especially over Vermont...but drier weather is
expected to develop Monday afternoon through Tuesday. The
northwest flow aloft will result in below normal high
temperatures. Large upper level ridge builds into the region
Wednesday through Friday. This will result in a warming trend with
high temperatures at or above seasonal normals Thursday and
Friday. Dry weather will also exist Wednesday through Friday.
Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
through 00z Sunday...VFR conditions expected through the period.
A high pressure area will continue to slide east off the New
England coast overnight. This will alow for southerly surface
winds to develop across the region overnight into Saturday.
Satellite loop also showing high cirrus clouds will continue to
stream east-southeast from Canada overnight. Model guidance continues
to hint at low level moisture in the form of low clouds over the
Middle-Atlantic States will move north into the region overnight and Saturday.
Thus...have put in a VFR low cloud deck across the region between
08z-12z Saturday. Surface pressure gradient to tighten overnight
and during the day on Saturday. This will result in south to
southwest surface winds gusting to 20 to 30 knots developing
between 10z-14z Saturday and continuing through 00z Sunday.
Outlook 00z Saturday through Wednesday...
00z Sunday through 00z Wednesday...VFR-MVFR ceilings develop
Saturday night with rain moving in...especially on Sunday.
Looking at MVFR ceilings and visibilities with the rain moving in
with precipitation coming to an end late Sunday night...but MVFR
ceilings persist. Eventually looking at a return to VFR ceilings
and visibilities Monday through Wednesday as high pressure builds
into the region.
strong south to southwest winds will develop after midnight tonight and
continue right into Sunday morning. Speeds will increase into the
20 to 30 knot range during this time period with gusts as high as
35 knots Saturday night and Sunday morning. Waves will build into
the 2 to 5 foot range making for rough boating conditions for a
good part of the weekend. As a result...a lake Wind Advisory is in
effect from midnight tonight right through Sunday morning.