Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
755 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
a ridge of high pressure will be over the region through Friday.
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Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
as of 713 PM EDT Wednesday...ridge of high pressure will crest
overhead tonight...allowing for clear skies...light winds...and
low dew points. This combination will create ideal radiational
cooling conditions across the north country. Should see low
temperatures bottom out a couple degrees cooler than last night
with widespread low to middle 40s and even some 30s likely in the
normally cooler locations of the north country. Our local cold
spot of Saranac Lake is currently forecast to drop as low as 30
degrees...thus there is the potential for some patchy frost in the
coldest areas of the Adirondacks. However given the expected
isolated nature...will not issue any frost advisories at this
time. Some record lows may be approached...see climate section
below. Otherwise...will likely also see some patchy fog
development overnight in the climatologically favored areas.
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Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday night/...
as of 414 PM EDT Wednesday...a ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region through Friday. Expecting temperatures to slowly
warm through the period...with highs in the 70s on Thursday and
around 80 on Friday. Min temperatures Thursday night and Friday
night will also gradually be warmer each night.
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Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
as of 414 PM EDT Wednesday...overall active pattern anticipated
with temperatures returning to above normal by early next week...along
with increased relative humidity values. Very difficult to time
individual pieces short wave energy in fast west to northwest follow
aloft...and position of best relative humidity in days 4 through 7. In
addition...still some uncertainty to regards of surface warm front
position Sat/Sunday time period...with several runs of the GFS
showing the boundary well north of our County Warning Area and very warm 85/925mb
temperatures...while ecwmf/Gem shows the boundary draped across our County Warning Area
through Sunday...before lifting north by Monday. Will trend toward the
slightly cooler European model (ecmwf) thermal profiles...which show 925mb temperatures
between 16-18c on Sat/sun...instead of the GFS which indicates temperatures
between 22-24c...these cooler temperatures will result in highs l/M 70s mountains
to u70s to l80s warmer valleys. The combination of surface
boundary...short wave energy aloft...and increasing amounts of
instability will produce the chances for showers/storms. Highest chance
probability of precipitation at this time looks to be late Sat into early Sunday. Another surface warm
front lifts north late Sunday into Monday...with additional chances
for showers/storms expected. Given the warm air advection signature in the
thickness fields and short wave energy sliding over developing
ridge...would not be surprised if a mesoscale convective system develops across the northern
lakes and slides along the periphery of ridge late Sunday into
Monday. For Monday...typical airmass type thunderstorms are
possible...from surface heating/instability and weak short wave energy riding
along periphery of ridge. Will keep low chance probability of precipitation in forecast to coverage
potential for afternoon/evening showers/storms. Tuesday into Wednesday...weak
ridge breaks Downs...as short wave trough develops across the central Great
Lakes. The combination of height falls...cold front approaching
and interacting with instability will produce more chances for
showers/storms. Overall active time period anticipated with daily
chances for mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms. Both GFS/European model (ecmwf) agree
Monday/Tuesday will be the warmest with highs well into the 80s...and
maybe a few l90s in the warmer valleys.
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Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
through 00z Friday...surface high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes
region will crest over the north country overnight bringing light
winds and clear skies. Patchy fog is possible at mpv/slk
06-12z...though boundary layer is drier than yesterday and it will
be more difficult to reach crossover temperatures tonight. Terrain
driven winds southeast 7-10kts at krut overnight. Winds become light
south/southwest during the day Thursday as high pressure area
shifts east of New England and light S-SW return flow develops.
Clear skies will continue.
Outlook 00z Friday through Monday...
VFR conditions continue for Thursday into Friday...with clouds
increasing...along with the chances for showers by late Friday
associated with a surface warm front. The chances for showers/storms will
continue over the weekend...with mainly VFR conditions
anticipated...but MVFR will be possible in the stronger storms. The
greatest potential for storms will be during the afternoon/evening hours
between 17z-23z each day. If a storm impacts a taf site and some rain
occurs...patchy fog would be possible during the late
evening/early morning hours on Saturday and Sunday.
&&
Climate...
a few record lows for June 20th may be approached or reached tonight.
Kmpv (montpelier)- 40f (1956,1948)
kmss (massena)- 40f (1967)
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Btv watches/warnings/advisories...
Vermont...none.
New York...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...wgh
near term...muccilli
short term...wgh
long term...Taber
aviation...banacos/Taber
climate...
