Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
332 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2015
high pressure over the region will move east of New England by
Sunday. This will allow for a return southwest flow of air into the
north country. The result will be continued dry conditions along
with markedly warmer temperatures. Highs on Sunday will be in the
60s...then reach into the 70s on Columbus day. The next chance for
precipitation comes Monday night into Tuesday with the passage of a
Near term /until 8 am Sunday morning/...
as of 328 PM EDT Saturday...high pressure over the north country
will remain the dominant weather feature for tonight. Clear skies
and light winds this evening will allow for temperatures to fall
off quickly into the 40s and upper 30s. As the high drifts slowly
eastward off the New England coast overnight we will see some middle
and high clouds stream across the area...associated with onset of
warm advection. These clouds will keep temperatures from falling below
freezing in many locations...though some areas of frost are
possible across the Adirondacks and central/eastern Vermont. Most
of these areas have already seen a killing frost however...
effectively ending the growing season. Some areas that have not
seen a freeze or killing frost may see a little frost tonight as
well...and this includes lamollle and Windsor counties in Vermont.
Not getting enough coverage however to warrant any headline at
this time. The clouds and a developing southerly wind late tonight
will prevent any frost issues in St Lawrence and Champlain
valleys...where growing season has not officially ended.
Increasing wind in boundary layer should preclude fog development.
Best chance for seeing some patchy fog would be south...especially
the lower Connecticut valley. Min temperatures tonight in the 30s to
lower 40s...with rising temperatures late in the Champlain and St
Lawrence valleys as southerly winds kick in.
Short term /8 am Sunday morning through Monday night/...
as of 328 PM EDT Saturday...high pressure will continue to influence
weather across the forecast area for Sunday through Monday...as
it resides off the East Coast. We'll see dry conditions with a
trend towards above normal temperatures.
We'll see varying amounts of cloud cover through the period...but
we'll also see a nice warming trend to well above normal levels as
south to southwest flow increases between high pressure off the
Atlantic Seaboard and an approaching trough from the west. Highs
Sunday will climb to just above normal in the 60s...but then warm
well into the 70s for Monday. This is a good 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for middle October. Lows Sunday night will be above
normal as well...ranging from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
Cold front entering the eastern Great Lakes region Monday evening
will make its way into the north country later Monday night. This
will bring an increase in clouds along with a chance of showers
after midnight. It will remain mild with lows in the upper 40s
to the middle 50s.
Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
as of 322 PM EDT Saturday...unsettled pattern dominates the
extended period starting with a cold front that will move through
the region Tuesday producing rain showers. An influx of cooler air
behind the front in northwest flow will persist as 500mb trough
remains over the area, bringing several shortwaves across the
north country throughout the period. This will result in a chance
of showers across portions of the north country
everyday...especially over the higher terrain with affects of
Temperatures on Tuesday will reach the low 50s to low 60s and
cool behind the front to the middle 40s to middle 50s during the day for
the rest of the work week. At night, min temperatures will follow
a cooling trend, dipping into the 30s to low 40s Wednesday and
Thursday nights and possibly cooler Friday night.
Aviation /20z Saturday through Thursday/...
through 18z Sunday...VFR conditions will persist with sct6-broken
middle to high level clouds and few-scattered VFR low clouds this
afternoon. Winds vrb at 5-8kts shifting south late this afternoon
and overnight. Increasing middle level clouds moving in from the northwest
should preclude fog development over most of the area tonight.
Possible exception in southern CT valley...where it will take
longer for clouds to reach, allowing for possible fog development.
Low level wind shear expected at kmss and kslk around 08z-12z as 850mb jet of
35-40kts moves into the region Sunday morning. After sunrise,
winds will begin to mix down and expect southerly flow 8-14kts
with gusts 18-25kts to develop in the late morning.
Outlook 18z Sunday through Thursday...
18z Sunday through 06z Tuesday...VFR with high pressure.
06z Tuesday through 12z Wednesday...mix of MVFR/IFR in showers
with cold frontal passage.
12z Wednesday Onward...bkn/ovc VFR/MVFR ceilings. Brief light