Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
945 PM EST Tuesday Mar 3 2015
light snow will be over the north country overnight before
tapering off quickly before sunrise. Generally looking at 1 to 4
inches of snow with slightly higher amounts in the mountains.
There may be some light freezing drizzle around sunrise...but no
ice accumulations are expected. Above normal temperatures are
expected on Wednesday before a turn back to below normal
temperatures and drier weather.
Near term /until 7 am Wednesday morning/...
as of 945 PM EST Tuesday...surface observations showing light
snow over the region at this time. Surface observations and
composite radar loop showing most of the precipitation has come to
an end across most of central and western New York state at this
time...as models show a middle level dry slot moving into western and
central New York state at this time. Our current Winter Weather
Advisory is up through 7 am EST Wednesday. However...if current
trends continue than this advisory may likely be cancelled earlier
than 7 am EST Wednesday. However...will keep the Winter Weather
Advisory up for now.
Short term /7 am Wednesday morning through Thursday night/...
as of 314 PM EST Tuesday...strong southwest flow over the area on
Wednesday will be dry and thus precipitation should end quickly in
the morning. Mixing should allow for gusty winds across northern
New York and downsloping into the Champlain Valley will result in
above normal temperatures with highs in the lower 40s. Elsewhere
high temperatures will be in the middle 30s to around 40. Dry weather
continues Wednesday night through Thursday night as flow pattern
gradually becomes northwest with time. This will allow for a
return to below normal temperatures Thursday with highs in the
teens to lower 20s.
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 314 PM EST Tuesday...overall quiet period with a few
chances for snow showers and slight warming trend.
A broad ridge of high pressure will be firmly in place towards the
weekend. By late in the day Friday the dome of high pressure should
shift just enough offshore that warmer southwest return flow will
set in...beginning the warming trend. Temperatures on Friday will be in
the middle teens to low 20s across the area but into the weekend will
warm to the low 30's across the area.
On Saturday an upper level disturbance will bring increasing clouds
with a chance for snow showers through Saturday evening. The rest of
the weekend should be high and dry with temperatures warming into the low
30s and overnight lows in the lower teens to single digits across
the area. The rest the extended currently looks mostly dry with
some orographic snow showers possible early next week and highs in
the lower 30's with lows in the middle teens to upper single digits.
Aviation /03z Wednesday through Sunday/...
through 00z Thursday...widespread MVFR/IFR conditions this evening
and tonight will gradually improve to VFR at most taf sites on
Wednesday. Snow and gusty south winds with gusts up to 20-30 knots
(especially at btv) will bring IFR/MVFR or lower to all sites
through 04-06z. Snow will then taper off with only scattered snow
showers and/or areas of light freezing drizzle or light sleet
possibily persisting through 12z...especially slk. On
Wednesday...winds become westerly and gust up to 20-27 knots once
again...strongest at mss/slk. Ceilings lift or scatter out to VFR
at most taf sites...exception being slk where some terrain
enhancement may lead to continued broken MVFR stratus.
Outlook 00z Thursday through Sunday...
00z Thursday through 00z Friday...mainly VFR although some
periods of MVFR/IFR are possible in light snow showers as system
slides to the south.
00z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR under ridge of high
12z Saturday Onward...MVFR/IFR possible in snow showers with
Vermont...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 am EST Wednesday for vtz003-
New York...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 am EST Wednesday for nyz026-