Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
1042 am EDT Monday Aug 31 2015
an unseasonably warm and dry weather pattern will persist across
the north country through the next 7 days...associated with the
continued presence of a mean upper level ridge across the central
and eastern United States. High temperatures through the period
will average 10 to 15 degrees above normal. No significant
rainfall is expected...but an upper level disturbance may bring a
few showers to the region late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Near term /until 8 PM this evening/...
as of 1037 am EDT Monday...have updated the forecast to increase
cloud cover next few hours. Increasing middle-level subsidence appears
to be trapping low-level moist/cloud layer 3-4kft above ground level...and this
is reflected in rap/NAM forecast soundings through early afternoon.
Increased mixing with daytime heating should allow skies to trend
partly to mostly sunny this afternoon and evening. No other
significant changes needed to the forecast. Increasing 700-500mb
heights and subsidence will otherwise reinforce dry weather across
the region. Surface winds will increase from the SW-west at 10-15 miles per hour
this afternoon...with gusts 20-25 miles per hour possible. Warming temperatures
will reach the middle 80s in the valleys and upper 70s to low 80s
most other areas.
Short term /8 PM this evening through Wednesday/...
as of 408 am EDT Monday...quiet tonight with skies clearing and
winds subside overnight. Some areas may see fog development in the
favorable valley locations. Min temperatures will be mild in the middle 50s
to low 60s.
Rising 700-500mb heights continue as strong upper ridge builds
across New York and New England for Tuesday. Mostly clear skies
will contribute to highs in the middle-upper 80s for Tuesday and
Wednesday. 500mb heights begin to decrease Wednesday as another
shortwave approaches from the northwest. Clouds will increase over
the northern tier of zones but expect much of the day to remain
mostly clear. Otherwise a mainly dry forecast is expected.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
as of 413 am EDT Monday...unseasonably warm and mainly dry
weather expected as a ridge of high pressure at the surface and
aloft will be over the region through the period. The best chance
for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be on Thursday
as a weak backdoor cold front drops south across the area.
Temperatures will be well above seasonal normals through the
period with valley highs mainly in the 80s. 850 mb temperatures cool a
few degrees behind backdoor front and dewpoints also a bit lower
for Friday into Saturday. Temperature profiles warmer once again for
later next weekend when valley highs may approach 90. Nighttime
lows will be mostly in the lower to middle 60s...with 50s in the
normally cooler higher terrain zones.
Aviation /15z Monday through Friday/...
through 12z Tuesday...mainly VFR conditions expected through the
period with the exception being at kslk/kmpv through 13z today with
MVFR/IFR in fog. More fog expected again after 06z Tuesday at
kslk/kmpv with IFR/LIFR conditions possible. There will be
scattered to broken stratocumulus clouds today with ceilings
around 4000 feet. Clouds will dissipate tonight.
Winds will become southwest 10-15 knots this morning and west 10-20
knots this afternoon. Winds diminish to light and variable tonight.
Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...
12z Tuesday-00z Sat...mainly VFR. Periods early morning vlifr/IFR mainly
at kmpv and kslk. Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday night and Thursday.