Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
1232 PM EDT Friday Mar 14 2014
low pressure will pass north of the region later today into
Saturday with a chance of snow showers and moderating
temperatures. Behind this system...a return to drier and much
colder weather is expected for Sunday into early next week.
Near term /until 8 PM this evening/...
as of 1229 PM EDT Friday...surface ridge sliding eastward into the Gulf of
Maine is allowing for increasing S-SW winds and a rapid rise in
temperatures from the frigid early am lows (low of -6f at btv).
Increasing low-level warm air advection will allow afternoon temperatures to reach the low to
middle 30s from the Champlain Valley westward despite increasing middle-upper
level clouds. Highs generally in the upper 20s across north-central and
northestern Vermont. Increasing p-gradient contributes to 15-25 miles per hour sustained
winds with gusts 30-35 miles per hour through the remainder of the afternoon.
May see some localized blowing snow for a time this afternoon and evening.
Strongest winds will be in the Champlain Valley with channeled southerly
flow. Not a lot of low level moisture so precipitation chances relatively
low (15-25%) and mostly confined to along the international border for
light shower activity. Conditional precipitation probability highest for
snow showers except across southwestern St. Lawrence County where warmer
planetary boundary layer suggest a mix of rain/snow shower activity.
Short term /8 PM this evening through Sunday/...
as of 430 am EDT Friday...surface low will pass north of the
international border tonight...continued warm south to southwest
winds overnight. Shortwave trough will trail behind the surface
low. Expecting mainly cloudy skies and some scattered rain and
snow showers. Lows will be mild...not much lower than the daytime
high temperatures were. Mainly a light precipitation event expected with
the best chance for precipitation in northern New York and then along
our northern border. Some minor snow accumulations are
possible...especially in the Adirondacks.
Upper trough remains in place across the north country on Saturday
with shortwaves rounding out the base...this will bring continued
chance for rain and snow showers. Should have cold frontal
passage Saturday morning associated with low just north of the
international border. Maximum temperatures will be reached early in the
day...upper 30s to lower 40s...then drop through the afternoon
with cold air advection behind departing cold front and winds
shifting to the northwest. Snow showers may linger along the northwest facing
slopes...mainly higher elevations. Could see 1-3" in the higher
elevations...but expecting just an inch or less in the Champlain
Temperatures will be much colder for Saturday night and Sunday with cold air advection
in place across the north country. Arctic high pressure builds
into the area and maintains north-northwest winds. Overnight min temperatures
Saturday night will be about 10 degrees below normal...then maximum
temperatures Sunday will be about 20 degrees below normal.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
as of 359 am EDT Friday...high pressure over the northern Great
Lakes Sunday evening builds into the forecast area Sunday night.
This high will be the dominant feature in our weather for the
first part of next week as it slides slowly east across southern
Quebec. As ridge builds over the region Monday and Monday
night...it will deflect a coastal low eastward into the
Atlantic...keeping the north country dry. Latest model runs do
track the coastal low a bit further north however...so the
situation will need to be monitored. Temperatures will be some 20 to 25
degrees below seasonal norms Sunday night through Monday night.
Expect lows mostly 5 above to 5 below zero and highs Monday in
the teens to lower 20s.
High pressure expected to remain in control of north country
weather Tuesday into Wednesday as it slides from Quebec into the
Maritimes. Temperatures not quite as cold with highs Tuesday in the 20s
and lows Tuesday night 5 to 15 above. Moderation continues
Wednesday as we get into return southerly flow behind departing
high. Expect highs in the 30s...although there will be an
increase in clouds and chance of snow showers late. This due to
low pressure which will originate in the Lee of The Rockies and
move towards the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. This system
will make its way across the northeast Wednesday night through
Thursday...accompanied by some precipitation and milder
temperatures. Temperatures mild enough by Thursday in fact so that
precipitation type will be in question...especially in the
valleys where highs will be around 40. Expect colder air to
return the following weekend in the wake of the storm.
Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/...
through 12z Saturday...VFR through most of the period...though
brief MVFR possible at mss and slk midday today and again after
midnight tonight with approaching clipper system. Surface ridge
axis moving east of the area early today. Clouds rapidly
overspreading area from west to east early today with lowering
VFR ceilings. Chance for a few snow showers at mss/slk 14z-18z but it
should remain dry at rest of taf sites. Chances for snow/rain
showers increase at all taf sites after midnight tonight with
approach of frontal system.
Primary aviation concern for today will be gusty winds. Expect
south to southwest winds to increase to 12-18 kts with gusts 30
kts by afternoon...especially at btv/mss. These gusty winds will
Outlook 12z Saturday through Tuesday...
12z Saturday through Sunday...scattered rain and snow showers
Saturday...with brief periods of MVFR/IFR. Frontal passage brings
gusty northwest winds Saturday night into Sunday...20-25 kts at times
along with isolated -shsn...mainly for kslk/kmpv.
Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR with high pressure building in
at the surface.