Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
348 am EDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

Synopsis...
scattered snow showers will be coming to an end across Vermont and
northern New York this morning. Temperatures will be well below
normal. High pressure will build into the area tonight and persist
through Friday. This will allow for a warming trend along with
plenty of sunshine. The threat of showers will return for the
weekend as an upper level trough of low pressure moves into the
region.

&&

Near term /until 8 PM this evening/...
as of 348 am EDT Wednesday...bulk of steadier precipitation has
exited the area early this morning...but scattered snow showers
will linger through about mid-morning. Cold air advection will
keep temperatures well below normal today...15 to 20 degrees below
normal...and winds will remain gusty from the northwest. Some
sunshine should develop later in the day.

&&

Short term /8 PM this evening through Friday/...
as of 348 PM EDT Tuesday...high pressure builds into the region
tonight and Thursday...then moves east of the area on Friday. Dry
weather is expected through the period and developing southwest
flow aloft allows for a warming trend with highs on Thursday
getting close to normal and then slightly above normal on Friday.
There should also be plenty of sunshine.

&&

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
as of 348 am EDT Wednesday...an upper level trough of low pressure
will move across the area on Saturday and Sunday and bring a
chance of showers. Despite the clouds and precipitation...
temperatures will remain at or slightly above seasonal normals.
Westerly flow aloft develops early next week with a series of
troughs moving across eastern Canada. Thus cannot rule out the
possibility of a few showers...but temperatures will remain
slightly above seasonal normals.

&&

Aviation /08z Wednesday through Sunday/...
through 06z Thursday...winds northwest gusting 20-30 knots behind
departing cold front along with rapidly falling temperatures.
Snow has ended at most taf sites with exception of mpv and slk.
Both sites should see snow ending in the next hour or two. MVFR
ceilings continue for much of the overnight...but then becoming
VFR towards morning as clouds scatter out. After 13z Wednesday
expect VFR conditions with just some scattered low clouds in the
morning. Winds northwest 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25
knots...diminishing late in the afternoon with skies becoming
clear.

Outlook 06z Thursday through Sunday...high pressure will bring
VFR weather Wednesday night through Friday. Possible MVFR in rain
showers Saturday as trough of low pressure moves across the
region. VFR Sunday as high pressure returns.

&&

Hydrology...
as of 348 am EDT Wednesday...flooding continues across much of the
area early this morning. Colder temperatures will limit any high
elevation snowmelt today and no additional heavy precipitation is
expected. Quite a few locations picked up between one and two
inches of rain yesterday. Nevertheless...many of the larger rivers
are still above flood stage. Some have crested while others still
rise...thus more flooding is expected right through the day today.
The smaller rivers and streams are either cresting or falling...so
gradual improvement is expected today. Because of the continued
flood threat...the Flood Watch remains in effect for all of
northern New York and Vermont.

&&

Btv watches/warnings/advisories...
Vermont...Flood Watch through this evening for vtz001>012-016>019.
New York...Flood Watch through this evening for nyz026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
Synopsis...evenson
near term...evenson
short term...evenson
long term...evenson
aviation...neiles
hydrology...evenson