Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
1258 am EST Sat Feb 6 2016
low pressure will pass south of Nova Scotia this evening with
snow ending across eastern New England. Other than a few snow
showers across the north country Saturday into Sunday...mainly dry
weather is expected this weekend along with seasonably cold
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1248 am EST Saturday...deepening surface low centered south of
Nova Scotia will continue to make its way northeast across the
Canadian Maritimes and Newfoundland overnight. Mostly clear skies
across Vermont will give way to thicker clouds as ridge axis
shifts east and boundary layer flow backs to light west-
southwest. The west-southwest flow will allow for Great Lakes
moisture and lake generated stratus clouds to advect back into
northern New York and eventually into Vermont toward daybreak. A
few flurries or light snow showers will be possible across the
Adirondacks and St Lawrence Valley beginning during the pre-dawn
hours. Otherwise dry weather is expected through the overnight
hours. Temperatures will be a bit colder than last night until the
overcast clouds build in...but still above normal for early
February. Expect lows to range from the middle teens to lower 20s.
West-southwest flow persists on Saturday allowing for Great Lakes
moisture to continue to filter into northern New York and northern
Vermont. This coupled with some weak shortwave energy and modest
surface-based instability with daytime heating will result in a
continued chance of snow showers...especially across northern New
York. Any snow accumulations will be on the light side with just a
dusting to maybe 2 inches...mainly over the northern Adirondacks
and southern portion of the St Lawrence Valley. Low level temperatures
mild enough so that a mix of snow/rain possible in the valleys for
the afternoon hours. Expect high temperatures mainly in the 30s for your
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
as of 350 PM EST Friday...low pressure system and upper level
trough passes north of our forecast area Saturday night and will
have some scattered snow showers across the area...especially the
higher elevations and most northern zones. Best vorticity
advection and dynamics remains north of the international border
with this system. Btv4 and btv12 both show potential for some snow
showers during the first part of the overnight...but fading away
quickly. Drier and colder weather will then return for Sunday and
Sunday night ahead of next approaching system. Surface cold front
never makes it quite across our forecast area on
Sunday...therefore not too cold of a day.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
as of 355 PM EST Friday...interesting weather pattern set up for
the Monday through Friday timeframe. We are a bit stuck between
two systems. A large scale upper level trough will be the main
feature. As the upper level low moves from the western Great Lakes
on Monday...slowly eastward through Wednesday. Some scattered snow
showers are expected...though not too significant for
accumulations as moisture is weak and no organized systems to help
with forcing. Snow showers will be enhanced as several shortwaves
move through upper level trough base. From Wednesday night into the
end of the week a cold trough drops south out of Canada bringing US
some colder temperatures for the end of the week. The coastal
storm that we have talked about previously now looks like it will
stay well out to sea and not impact our region.
Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/...
through 06z Sunday...increasing VFR cloud cover will continue
through the overnight hours as a stratus deck from the Great Lakes
moves eastward into our area. Observation upstream point to a ceiling
around 6000-7500 feet and expect that to be what happens as the
clouds build in across the terminals. As low level flow remains
generally westerly over the Great Lakes there will be some
isolated to scattered flurries/light snow developing over northern
New York through the rest of the over night hours and if a band
moves over either slk or mss reduced visibilities are possible.
Slk is the best case to see MVFR ceilings through the morning. VFR
ceilings elsewhere. Light variable winds overnight changing to
south by morning with gusts to 20kts at kmss/kbtv.
Outlook 06z Sunday through Wednesday...
06z sun-18z sun...areas of MVFR/IFR in scattered snow showers
with weak frontal passage.
18z sun-18z Monday...VFR/high pressure.
18z Monday Onward...VFR with areas of MVFR/IFR in scattered to