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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
942 am EST sun Feb 14 2016

Synopsis...
the coldest air of the season remains over the north country
today and with gusty northwest winds...dangerously cold wind
chills are expected. Cold temperatures persist tonight...but winds
will become lighter. A warming trend takes place Monday into
Tuesday. A storm will impact the area Monday night into Tuesday
bringing a mix of snow and rain.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 942 am EST Sunday...just some minor tweaks to match current
conditions as temperatures still very cold. In addition...little
in the way of any cloud cover currently exists other than a bit of
clouds coming off Lake Champlain. Have adjusted sky cover to
indicate more sun today as building high should provide sufficient
subsidence to limit cloud development. Lastly threat for any
mountain snow showers is limited as well and have removed from the
forecast.

&&

Short term /700 am Monday through Tuesday/...
as of 423 am EST Sunday...a clear and cold start to the day on
Monday with high pressure still over the region. Temperatures will
be well below zero in most areas to begin the day. But as the high
slides off the East Coast during the day on Monday...a return
southerly flow of air will develop. This will allow for temperatures to
rebound into the 20s during the afternoon. The southerly flow will
also result in an an increase in moisture. Expect increasing
clouds along with the chance of some light snow later in the day
due warm air advection and disturbance in flow aloft. The best
chance for seeing the light snow will be over southern and western
portions of forecast area.

Chances for precipitation will increase rapidly Monday night into
Tuesday as vigorous shortwave lifts out of lower Mississippi
Valley Monday night and races northeast with plentiful moisture
along an upper level trough. There is still some inconsistency
between models on track and intensity of the surface low...but
they are all indicating that the low will track north-northeast
through some part of our forecast area during the day on Tuesday.
The result will be a significant system with anomalously high
precipitable water...with an assortment of precipitation types
expected. Regardless of model solution...ptype Monday night will
be mainly snow. During the day on Tuesday...strong southerly middle
level jet will allow for enough warming for a change to mostly
rain...with a period of sleet and freezing rain as the snow
changes to mostly rain. Quantitative precipitation forecast may reach 1 to perhaps even 2
inches...so there is potential for significant amounts of
snow...rain or mixed precipitation. The more quantitative precipitation forecast that falls however...the
more likely it falls as rain. Preliminary estimates suggest
snowfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches before changeover...with some
light icing as well. Icing problems may continue even after
temperatures climb above freezing...due the present Arctic air
massin place and cold ground temperatures. Maximum temperatures by later Tuesday
expected to range from the middle 30s to the lower 40s.

&&

Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
as of 423 am EST Sunday...low pressure departs to the northeast
Tuesday night with rain or mixed precipitation tapering off...then trending
towards a chance of some light snow showers. There is the
continued chance for snow showers Wednesday with upper trough over
region and disturbance in flow aloft moving through. Temperatures
a little above normal despite cooler air moving in aloft. Expect
highs in the 30s...so there may be a little snow/rain mix in the
valleys. High pressure brings a return to drier and colder weather
for Thursday with some sunshine and highs in the upper teens and
20s. The high moves off the East Coast on Friday...while a series
of shortwaves in fast flow aloft approach from the Great Lakes
region. This will bring a chance of snow showers Friday and snow
or rain showers Saturday as temperatures rebound to seasonable levels on
Friday and above normal Saturday.

&&

Aviation /15z Sunday through Thursday/...
through 12z Monday...generally VFR conditions across the area
with clearing skies today. Some lower ceilings and very light snow
showers this morning at btv and mpv downwind of Lake Champlain. As
the winds weaken this should subside. Winds will be northwest
around 8-11 kts and gusting to 20 kts at times this
morning...weakening this afternoon.

Outlook 12z Monday through Thursday...VFR through Monday. Monday
night into Tuesday a coastal storm will spread heavy mixed wintry
precipitation northward into the region with widespread IFR aviation weather
conditions likely for Tuesday and Tuesday night. A clipper system
on Wednesday and Thursday may bring some MVFR conditions.

&&

Climate...
coldest low temperature records for February 13th for our climate
sites...
btv -25 1967
mpv -29 1967
mss -33 1967
sjbv1 -30 1967
mmnv1 -32 1967

Coldest high temperature records for Valentines day (february
14th)...
btv -2 1979
mpv -4 1979
mss -3 1987
sjbv1 +2 1987
mmnv1 -19 1979

Coldest low temperature records for Valentines day (february
14th)...
btv -19 1987
mpv -19 2003
mss -29 2003
sjbv1 -28 2003
mmnv1 -30 1979

&&

Btv watches/warnings/advisories...
Vermont...wind chill warning until 7 PM EST this evening for vtz001>012-
016>019.
New York...wind chill warning until 7 PM EST this evening for nyz026>031-
034-035-087.

&&

$$
Synopsis...neiles
near term...evenson
short term...rjs
long term...rjs
aviation...neiles
climate...loconto

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