Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
440 am EDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

Synopsis...
a large area of high pressure exists over northern New England
this morning and will be slowly moving northeast through Friday.
As a result...expect plenty of sunshine and a gradual warming
trend. High temperatures should return to seasonal normals by
Friday. An upper level trough of low pressure will move into the
region late Friday night and Saturday. This will bring an increase
in clouds and showers to the area.

&&

Near term /until 8 PM this evening/...
as of 440 am EDT Thursday...another morning of below normal
temperatures exists across the area with readings in the teens to
lower 20s. Looks like Montpelier set another record with a current
temperature of 16...the old record was 17 set back in 2003.
Southwest flow aloft today will allow for a warming trend to take
place and with just some high clouds moving across the
area...temperatures should rebound from yesterday and get close to
seasonal normals.

&&

Short term /8 PM this evening through Saturday/...
as of 440 am EDT Thursday...the high slowly moves northeast
tonight and Friday and with southwest flow aloft...the warming
trend will continue with high temperatures on Friday right around
seasonal normals. Still looking at a good deal of sunshine along
with dry weather Friday. Clouds will begin to increase Friday
night and especially on Saturday as an upper level trough of low
pressure moves into the region. Still looking at a chance of
showers for most of the area during this time period. Despite the
clouds and showers on Saturday...high temperatures will only be a
few degrees below normal.

&&

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 305 am EDT Thursday...surface high pressure will ridge into
the north country Saturday night...though some lingering clouds
will help to keep temperatures from dropping off too drastically.
Surface high will be main weather feature on Sunday as well but
slowly sliding eastward. Dry weather is expected through the
overnight. A warm front will cross just north of the region
Monday bringing a chance for showers to our northern
zones...though low center and best chance for precipitation will pass
north of the region. Weak surface high will then be over the area
through early Tuesday. From Tuesday through Wednesday will
continue with chance for showers as a weak low pressure system
crosses the area from northwest to southeast. Generally a couple
of insignificant chances for some rain showers with an otherwise
quiet extended portion of the forecast.

&&

Aviation /08z Thursday through Monday/...
through 06z Friday...VFR expected with mainly clear skies through
the period. Light and variable winds tonight...except rut where
valley induced southeast flow of 5-10 kts expected. Winds then
trend south to southeast 8-13 kts Thursday with gusts around 20
kts during the afternoon. Exception will be mss where winds will
be east/northeast.

Outlook 06z Friday through Monday...

06z Friday through 00z Saturday...VFR with high pressure.

00z Saturday through 00z Sunday...mainly VFR with scattered MVFR
showers with weak frontal passage.

00z Sunday through 00z Monday...VFR with high pressure.

00z Monday Onward...mainly VFR with scattered MVFR showers as
additional frontal energy affects the area.

&&

Climate...
below is a short list of record low temperatures for Thursday...
April 17. Please note the period of record for kmpv and kmss
(1948) are considerably shorter than at kbtv (1884).

Siterecord date

Kbtv 13f 1971
kmpv 17f 2003
kmss 20f 2003

&&

Btv watches/warnings/advisories...
Vermont...none.
New York...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...evenson
near term...evenson
short term...evenson
long term...neiles
aviation...rjs/neiles
climate...jmg