Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
930 am EST Sat Feb 13 2016
the coldest air mass of the winter season is upon US...with
dangerously low wind chills through Sunday. A moderation in
temperatures will begin Monday...with a strong and moisture laden
storm system bringing potential mixed wintry precipitation to the
north country for late Monday night through Tuesday.
Near term /until 10 PM this evening/...
as of 929 am EST Saturday...wind chill warning remains in place.
Going forecast in good shape with cold air advection continuing
today...which will result in falling temperatures. Have tweaked
grids to match current conditions and kept same idea of falling
temperatures through the day. Tweaked cloud cover to go with less
cloud cover and lowered precipitation chances in the mountains of
Vermont due to less cloud cover.
Short term /10 PM this evening through Monday/...
as of 449 am EST Saturday...wind chill warning continues on Sunday
as coldest air mass of the winter season remains over the region.
Core of the cold air aloft will be exiting the area during the
afternoon and modifying a bit as it does so. But after a frigid
start to the day...temperatures will struggle to reach zero. Winds
will still be brisk enough at 10-15 miles per hour with higher gusts to
produce wind chill temperatures of 30 to 35 below during the
morning. Winds will slacken during the afternoon with approach of
surface high pressure...and this will allow for some improvement
in the wind chills. While it will be a bitter cold day...we should
see partly sunny skies. Cold air temperatures and warm waters of
Lake Champlain may result in steam clouds and light snow showers
off the lake in the Champlain Valley of Vermont. Elsewhere...dry
Another cold night Sunday night with subzero readings as high
pressure moves across the region. The high will then slide off the
East Coast during the day on Monday. This will allow for return
southerly flow to develop. Expect highs in the lower to middle 20s with
increasing clouds. There is the chance of some light snow later in
the day...mainly over southern sections of forecast area due warm
air advection and disturbance in flow aloft.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 449 am EST Saturday...chances for precipitation will increase
rapidly Monday night into Tuesday as vigorous shortwave lifts out
of lower Mississippi Valley Monday night and races northeast with
plentiful moisture. Models still differ on track of associated
surface low that develops and the resulting ptype and amounts over
the north country. GFS tracks surface low just to our east...crossing
New Hampshire on Tuesday...while European model (ecmwf) continues to favor a more
western track up through New York state. Have leaned closer to GFS
solution...which is more in line with wpc thinking at this time.
Expect precipitation to overspread forecast area from southwest to
northeast Monday night with strong warm air advection and period of
good isentropic lift. Regardless of model solution...ptype Monday
night will be mainly snow. During Tuesday however...enough warming
expected for a change to mixed precipitation or even rain...depending on
eventual low track. Quantitative precipitation forecast may reach 1 to perhaps even 2 inches...so
potential certainly exists for significant amounts of snow...rain or
System exits to the northeast Tuesday night with precipitation tapering
to snow showers. Continued chance for snow showers Wednesday with
upper trough over region and disturbance in flow aloft moving
through. High pressure brings a return to drier and colder weather
for Thursday with some sunshine and highs in the upper teens and
20s. Next shortwave in fast flow aloft approaches Friday
however...bringing chance snow showers with temperatures rebounding to
Aviation /15z Saturday through Wednesday/...
through 12z Sunday...expect a short-duration (an hour or less)
visibility drop to LIFR/vlifr in snow squalls with a gusty wind
shift from south to northwest at mpv and rut. Rapid clearing
toward VFR from west to east today, though gusty northwest winds
will continue into the afternoon, as high as 25 knots. Some
blowing snow is possible at all sites.
Outlook 12z Sunday through Wednesday...VFR tonight through Monday.
Monday night into Tuesday a coastal storm will spread heavy mixed
wintry precipitation northward into the region with widespread IFR
aviation weather conditions likely for Tuesday and Tuesday night. A
clipper system on Wednesday may bring some MVFR conditions.
coldest low temperature records for February 13th for our climate
btv -25 1967
mpv -29 1967
mss -33 1967
sjbv1 -30 1967
mmnv1 -32 1967
Coldest high temperature records for Valentines day (february
btv -2 1979
mpv -4 1979
mss -3 1987
sjbv1 +2 1987
mmnv1 -19 1979
Coldest low temperature records for Valentines day (february
btv -19 1987
mpv -19 2003
mss -29 2003
sjbv1 -28 2003
mmnv1 -30 1979
Vermont...wind chill warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for vtz001>012-
New York...wind chill warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for nyz026>031-034-