Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
354 PM EDT Thursday Oct 8 2015
a high pressure area will move east of the region overnight. A
warm front will move northeast from the Ohio Valley overnight and
will bring rain to the north country after midnight tonight. Rain
will continue into Friday. A cold front will move into the region
Friday afternoon and will be east of the region Friday night. A
high pressure area will build east from the Great Lakes on Saturday
and will remain over the north country through the remainder of
the Columbus day Holiday weekend.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
as of 354 PM EDT Thursday...a high pressure area will move east
of the region overnight. A warm front will move northeast from the
Ohio Valley after midnight. Rain is expected to develop across the
Saint Lawrence valley in northern New York after 06z tonight (2 am
edt) and then move east across the remainder of the region before
daybreak on Friday. Increasing cloud cover and southerly winds
overnight will help to keep temperatures up overnight.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/...
as of 354 PM EDT Thursday...a warm front will lie over the region
Friday morning with steady rain continuing across the region
through early Friday afternoon. A cold front will move east across
the region Friday afternoon. Models show a middle level dry slot to
move into the region by middle to late Friday afternoon...so
expecting rain to taper off to a slight chance of showers late
Friday afternoon and early Friday night. BUFKIT forecast soundings
showing showalter indexes go slightly negative across southern
Vermont on Friday which suggest some elevated convection may be
possible. However...this looks marginal at this time...and Storm Prediction Center has
general thunderstorm threat south of the forecast area on
Friday...so have elected to keep out of the forecast at this time.
High pressure to build east from the Great Lake late Friday night
and Saturday and will remain over the region through Saturday
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
as of 330 PM EDT Thursday...little change from previous couple
days thinking with regards to days 4 through 7. Best chance for
showers will be Tuesday into Tuesday evening...with warmest
temperatures ahead of front on Monday. The northeast United States
will be under fast west to northwest flow aloft during the time
period with building ridge/heights for Sunday into Monday. Prognosticated
850 mb temperatures warm to near 12c by Monday supporting highs in the 60s
mountains to middle 70s warmer valleys. 850h jet of 30 to 40 knots will
help advect low level moisture into our region and keep temperatures much
above normal on Monday night ahead of surface boundary. Lows will
range mainly in the 50s. Both GFS/European model (ecmwf) show 850 to 500mb relative humidity and
digging middle/upper level trough with next surface cold front. This
front combined with the available moisture will support a period
of rain showers Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Rainfall
amounts will be terrain influenced given the low level wind
profiles with highest quantitative precipitation forecast amounts over the high peaks and parts of
the mountains of central/northern Vermont. Temperatures will cool several
degrees below normal for Wednesday into Thursday as prognosticated 850 mb temperatures drop
to near 0c. These profiles will support highs mainly in the 40s
mountains to 50s valleys with lows in the 30s.
Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/...
through 18z Friday...VFR conditions with surface high pressure
will prevail through 06z tonight. Clouds will increase from west
to east across our taf sites tonight with rain arriving after 06z.
Expecting mainly VFR conditions at pbg/btv/rut with periods of
MVFR ceilings and visibility possible at slk/mpv/mss between 09z-16z
Friday. Have noted northeast winds at kmss taf site...which may
result in a period of IFR visible/ceilings toward 12z Friday. Rain should
taper off around 18z across northern New York taf sites.
Outlook 18z Friday through Monday...
winds shift to the northwest by Friday evening with rain quickly
tapering off by sunset at all taf sites. Gradient flow will limit
areal coverage of fog/br on Saturday morning with mainly VFR
conditions expected. Surface high pressure will prevail over the
weekend with VFR...except for IFR/LIFR Saturday night/Sunday
morning at slk/mpv in fog. Breezy southwest winds will develop
late Sunday afternoon and continue into Monday.