Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
1051 PM EDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure will continue to provide generally dry conditions
to the north country through Friday with temperatures returning to
seasonal normals to end the work week. A weak upper trough and
surface cold front will bring a few rain and snow showers to the
area Friday night into Saturday morning...but high pressure
returns by Saturday afternoon and continues through Sunday for a
nice end to the weekend.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
as of 1042 PM EDT Thursday...forecast remains on track. Only minor
adjustments made with latest update...mainly to input latest
observational data into grids. Based on latest data and
trends...have raised temperatures a couple of degrees...especially in
Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys. Otherwise no changes.

Earlier discussion...
quiet night expected across the north country as high pressure
over the region drifts slowly northeast into the Canadian
Maritimes. Outside of a few cirrus clouds drifting southwest to
northeast across the County Warning Area...conditions will be mainly clear and
dry...and slightly warmer than last night as southerly flow
increases between the departing high and an approaching cold
front. Look for lows generally in the 20s...with a few teens
possible in the colder hollows of the dacks and Northeast Kingdom.

&&

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/...
as of 334 PM EDT Thursday...sunny and dry conditions will start
the day on Friday but clouds and southerly flow will be on the
increase from west to east through the day as low pressure
tracking northeast through southern Ontario/Quebec drags a cold
front towards the area. Ahead of the front...925 temperatures rebound
nicely from below 0c in the morning to +3-5c by the afternoon
supporting highs near normal in the 50s valleys...to middle/upper 40s
elsewhere. Front approaches the St. Lawrence Valley late in the
day with a few rain showers moving in by sunset. Due to the dry
antecedent surface conditions...along with weak lift and a very
thin ribbon of 1000-700mb moisture associated with the front...not
expected more than a tenth of quantitative precipitation forecast area-wide with the frontal
passage. As it does shift across the area Friday night though...mean
bl temperatures do support a transition to some snow showers across the
higher terrain of the dacks and NE Vermont...but should only amount to
a dusting to around an inch.

Front clears the area to the east Saturday morning with lingering
precipitation across NE Vermont ending by mid-day. 850-925mb temperatures crash back
below 0c on cold northwest flow so don't expect highs Saturday to get
out of the 40s...maybe touch 50 in the valleys if we're lucky.
Another clear and cold night will be on tap for Saturday night as
high pressure builds back into the region with lows generally in
the 20s expected.

&&

Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
as of 307 PM EDT Thursday...overall active pattern expected
throughout the long term. Surface high pressure will slide eastward into
the Atlantic on Sunday...shifting winds out of the SW with an
influx of warm air. Upper level energy will approach the north
country Monday...increasing the threat for rain showers. A more
significant trough will move across the Great Lakes region Monday
night...developing a surface low which will bring a greater threat
for rain showers in above normal temperatures ahead of a cold
front. This front will move through the region Tuesday into
Tuesday night...shifting winds out of the northwest and cooling
temperatures slightly to near normal. Drier air will build into
the region with more high pressure for the middle of the week.

&&

Aviation /03z Friday through Tuesday/...
through 00z Saturday...VFR conditions expected through the period...
as a ridge of high pressure will be over the region. Satellite
loop through 2330z Thursday showing mainly high thin cirrus clouds across
the region at this time. Expecting mainly middle and high level
clouds across the region through the period. Expecting some
surface wind gusts to around 20 knots to develop across the region
between 14z-17z Friday and continue through 00z Saturday.

Outlook 00z Saturday through Tuesday...

00z Saturday through 00z Sunday...mainly VFR with scattered MVFR
showers with weak frontal passage.

00z Sunday through 06z Monday...VFR with high pressure.

06z Monday Onward...mainly VFR with scattered MVFR showers as
additional frontal energy affects the area.

&&

Btv watches/warnings/advisories...
Vermont...none.
New York...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...lahiff
near term...rjs/lahiff
short term...lahiff
long term...kgm
aviation...wgh/kgm