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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas
1147 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.


Aviation...pretty much perfect aviation weather with prevail over
deep south Texas over the next 24 hours as a very dry airmass
builds over the region. The 12z bro sounding today showed a very
low precipitable water of around 0.26 inches with fairly light southerly winds
prevail below the 5 kft level. A pretty light and variable surface
wind regime will prevail throughout the next 24 hours with a light
southerly wind remaining in place across the rgv throughout the
rest of this afternoon. Then expect light and variable winds to
prevail throughout the overnight hours with the flow becoming more
easterly later in the day tomorrow as the surface high over the
central states slides further eastwards. VFR conditions to
dominate over the next 24 hours for all three rgv airports.


Previous discussion... /issued 529 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014/

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...quiet weather will prevail today...yielding VFR
conditions. Clouds will be few and far between with light south
winds as high pressure covers the area.

Previous discussion... /issued 308 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014/

Short term /today through Thursday/...the next couple of days look
like they will result in seasonal autumn weather. Middle level ridging
upstream will support dry air over the area while light surface winds
will delay any significant return of moisture. Thus...skies will
remain mostly clear to clear with near normal temperatures. That would be
middle 70s for high temperatures today and Thursday with overnight lows in the
middle 40s inland to the middle 50s near the coast.

By Thursday the Main Ridge over the West Coast will translate east
to over The Rockies...with slight pressure falls over the Central
High plains and high pressure extending south over the Mississippi
Valley and into East Texas. Winds will stabilize at light to MDT
east before shifting to southeast on Friday.

Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
relatively tranquil weather is forecast much of the long term
period. High pressure moves off the northwestern Gulf Coast into
the western and central Gulf of Mexico...which shifts our winds from
northeasterly Thursday to a more easterly and eventually southeastern
direction. This shift occurs on Saturday morning and the increase in
moisture associated with the southeasterly winds may spark a few
showers over the Gulf or the immediate coast. Significant
convection/precipitation appears unlikely however with very dry air
just above the boundary layer.

Temperatures will warm up gradually amid the southeasterly flow but
little change in the air mass is forecast with a zonal large scale
upper air pattern. This should result in highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s through the weekend into early next week. Dew points in the
low to middle 60s will keep a little humidity in the air...but not
enough to be oppressive by any stretch. Monday night into Tuesday
the 00z European model (ecmwf) sends a fast moving cold front through the area but it
does not fit particularly well into the models synoptic picture and
has poor run to run continuity within the European model (ecmwf). The GFS holds any
frontal passage until Thursday and that solution has good GFS
ensemble agreement. Considering that went with the GFS themed
solution for the forecast with warm temperatures and modest
southeast winds through midweek with no significant precipitation chances.

today through Thursday...middle level ridging upstream will remain
dominant with broad high pressure over the northwest Gulf...leading
to low to moderate wave heights and light south winds. Plains high
pressure moving south into the northwest Gulf Thursday will create a
light to moderate east wind then.

Thursday night through Monday...
favorable marine conditions are forecast through the day on Friday
with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas. Southeasterly
wind speeds will increase Saturday through Monday amid moderate
seas. For now small craft exercise caution conditions are forecast
for most of this time period with Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible late Saturday into Sunday morning.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Bayview/Port Isabel 72 54 73 60 / 10 10 10 0
Brownsville 73 53 74 58 / 10 10 10 0
Harlingen 73 50 74 57 / 10 10 10 0
McAllen 75 50 75 55 / 10 10 10 0
Rio Grande City 75 48 74 53 / 10 10 10 0
South Padre Island 71 60 73 64 / 10 10 10 0


Bro watches/warnings/advisories...


This product is also available on the web at:

Short term...60
long term...55
graphicast/upper air...Martinez

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