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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas
641 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.


Aviation...most local airports have cleared out after afternoon
showers dissipated. A couple showers still firing west of
kmfe...but will remain away from the Airport for the rest of the
evening. Skies will remain mostly clear overnight...with light
east to southeast winds. Skies will remain VFR through the day
tomorrow...except for near any showers along the seabreeze
starting around noon.


Previous discussion... /issued 301 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015/

Short term /tonight through Thursday night/...500mb low across the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico will move slowly towards the Lower Texas
coast and the northeast Mexican coast tonight into Thursday. Low to
middle level moisture across the western Gulf of Mexico will likely
move inland across the coastal sections of the County Warning Area Thursday into
Thursday night as a result. Will continue to mention a slight chance to
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the coastal sections
tonight through Thursday night as the combination of moisture and
instability across the coastal waters moves across the Lower Texas

Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...the forecast
period begins with a 500mb inverted trough over the Rio Grande
Valley and deep south Texas on Friday with 500mb ridging over
northern Texas. Abundant low to middle level moisture and increase
instability will support isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms...especially across the coastal counties and
coastal waters...on Friday. Probability of precipitation will then begin to decrease on
Saturday as the middle level ridging builds into the area and the
middle level trough dissipates for the weekend into early next week.
High temperatures will range from the low to middle 90s near the
coast to the upper 90s to around 100 degrees across the Upper
Valley. Overnight low temperatures each night will range from the
middle 70s across the northern ranchlands to the upper 70s to around
80 degrees each night.

tonight through Thursday night...seas were near 2 feet with east-
northeast winds near 8 knots at buoy020 this afternoon. Light to
moderate southeast winds will prevail across the coastal water
tonight into Thursday as weak high pressure prevails across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and a surface trough across the south central
United States. Winds and seas will be higher in and near isolated to
scattered thunderstorms developing across the western Gulf of Mexico
tonight into early Thursday.

Friday through Sunday night...high pressure over the Gulf
will maintain light to moderate southeast winds and low to
moderate seas along the Lower Texas coastal waters through the
period. No scec or Small Craft Advisory anticipated. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible through the weekend.


Bro watches/warnings/advisories...


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