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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas
332 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Short term /now through Tuesday/...latest water vapor imagery shows
broad ridging across the Desert Southwest while shortwave trough
over the eastern plains lifts northeast. Deep south Texas weather
will be influence by this ridge through the short term period with
limited rain...breeze southeast winds and warm temperatures.

Latest kbro 00z sounding shows precipitable water values lower to
1.5 inches with much more dry airmass through the layer. Southerly
flow through 500 mb with 25 to 30 knots is shown as low level jet
extends south along the S Texas coast. Model guidance shows an increase
in southeast flow this afternoon hours once again with breeze conditions
with daytime mixing. High temperatures will warm up into the lower
90s near the coast to the triple digits out west. Shallow low level
moisture around 950 mb will allow for a few to scattered cumulus this
afternoon but no precipitation is expected. Tonight into
Tuesday...the weather pattern remains almost identical with low
chance of rain as high pressure remains in control of the region.
Southeast winds will decouple overnight. During the day as gradient
begins to strengthen...southeast winds will be breeze to windy once again
afternoon. Low temperatures remain in the middle 70s and near 80s along
the coast. High's Tuesday will reach the upper 90s.

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...500 mb high pressure
centered over the Baja California peninsula...and extended over deep south
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley...will rapidly dissipate as a
closed 500 mb low pressure system moves into California. However
..a separate 500 mb high pressure system centered over Bermuda
will rapidly build west and become re-centered over The Four
Corners area of the United States. With these high pressure ridges
in control while precipitable water values simultaneously fall to
near 1.5 inches or less...dry weather is forecast throughout the
entire long term forecast period for deep south Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley. Near normal daytime high and overnight low
temperatures are also anticipated.
&& through Tuesday...high pressure over the Gulf will
remain in control through the short term period keeping the
southeast flow across the Gulf waters. Very limited moisture in the
area will keep precipitation chances very low with mainly a few
streamer showers developing and producing a brief shower. Seas will
remain between 3 to 5 feet as southeast winds increase. Scec conditions
will be possible this afternoon and into Tuesday afternoon over the
Laguna and Gulf waters.

Tuesday night through Sunday...the interaction between high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and low pressure over northern
Mexico will produce breezy winds with rougher seas Tuesday night
through Thursday...such that small craft exercise caution or Small
Craft Advisory will likely be needed during this time period. As
the interaction weakens...lighter winds and lower seas will
prevail Thursday night and through the weekend.

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Bayview/Port Isabel 90 78 90 78 / 10 0 0 0
Brownsville 92 78 91 78 / 10 0 10 0
Harlingen 93 78 93 77 / 10 0 0 0
McAllen 96 78 96 78 / 10 0 0 0
Rio Grande City 98 77 98 77 / 10 0 0 0
South Padre Island 87 79 87 79 / 10 10 10 0

Bro watches/warnings/advisories...none.


This product is also available on the web at:

Short term...Torres-67
long term...tomaselli-66

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