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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1043 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR...BUT SHOWERS FOLLOW AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA MIDWEEK WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE WEEKEND AND MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1043 AM UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. JUST BROUGHT NEAR-TERM
CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SFC PRES GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WHICH ONLY DISSIPATED WITHIN THE LAST FEW
HOURS HAS LED TO A MILDER NIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
MID 40S AND LOW 50S.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY...WHICH WILL YIELD VERY EFFICIENT MIXING
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS ABOUT H75 PER LATEST BUFKIT PROFILES. TEMPS AT
H85 ARE AROUND +10C TO +12C SO USING EXTRAPOLATION...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO APPROACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION /THE S COAST WILL EXPERIENCE COOLER TEMPS UNDER ONSHORE
FLOW/. THE SLIGHT W COMPONENT TO THE OVERALL WIND FIELDS ALLOW FOR
SOME DOWNSLOPING SO SOME OF THE BETTER PERFORMING AREAS SUCH AS
THE CT AND MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEYS MAY COME CLOSE TO THE MID 80S.
THIS W COMPONENT WILL ALSO STAVE OFF THE E COAST SEA BREEZES WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED THE LAST FEW DAYS.

WITH THESE WARM TEMPERATURES AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...AM STILL SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.  SEE THE SECTION BELOW FOR THIS INFORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW.
THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWING AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL STEERING FLOW
ALOFT. THEREFORE...ASIDE FROM INCREASING HIGH-MID CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL 09Z
OR LATER FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE FLUX AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT TO YIELD -SHRA ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS NW MA. THIS BAND WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE S THROUGH THE MORNING...SO A DAMP COMMUTE
IS EXPECTED FOR SOME. LOOKING AT BUFKIT PROFILES...SOUNDINGS ARE
RELATIVELY STABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TIMEFRAME SO WILL
RUN WITH JUST SHOWERS RATHER THAN INCLUDING ANY TSRA. THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LVL MOISTURE SUPPORT EVEN MILDER MINS
THAN SUN NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD.

TUE...
SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING IT/S
WAY FROM N-S ACROSS THE REGION. IT/S TIMING IS SLOW ENOUGH THAT IT
WILL LIKELY BE JUST BARELY AT THE N BORDER OF MA BY 12Z AND ONLY
JUST OFF THE S COAST BY 00Z. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
LIFT IN THE VICINITY PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY AND PWATS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES. THEREFORE...LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF -SHRA
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL
BEGIN FROM N-S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG RIDGING MOVES IN
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SOUNDINGS ARE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE IN A NARROW CORRIDOR MAINLY THROUGH CT/RI
AND SE MA /IN ESSENCE WHERE BETTER EARLY MORNING HEATING IS
EXPECTED/. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
300-500J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5C/KM. THEREFORE...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
MAINLY ACROSS THE S AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR THANKS TO THE HIGHER PWAT
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... SHORTWAVE RACING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA PASSES NORTH 
AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER 
THE EASTERN USA WHILE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA. MODELS 
SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND 
AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO OR THROUGH OUR AREA. OVERALL A DRY 
WARM PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST 
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE DURING NEXT WEEKEND BUT 
AT TIMES FEATURE POPS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO CONFIDENCE IN 
PCPN IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

WE USED OUR USUAL BLEND OF LONG RANGE DATA. ONE DEPARTURE WAS WITH 
TEMPERATURES...FOR WHICH THE MODEL DATA SEEMED 3-5F TOO COOL FOR THE 
EXPECTED THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT.  WE ADJUSTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH 
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAT GUIDANCE TO BE MORE
CONSISTENT WITH OTHER DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT... COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MOVES FARTHER 
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. ANY 
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD MOVE OFF. EXPECT CLEARING 
SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE 
REGION. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH CROSS SECTIONS 
SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY BE THIN CIRRUS. CROSS 
SECTIONS ALSO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY 
NIGHT WHICH MAY BE FOG AND/OR STRATUS. MIXING PROFILES REACH TO 800 
MB WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB FRIDAY. TEMPS 
AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT 70S WEDNESDAY...WARMING TO 80 
OR LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS IN THE 
60S. INLAND MAX TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WARMER DURING THIS PERIOD BASED 
ON EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS 
DRAWS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SATURDAY 
BUT COULD GENERATE A SHOWER IN NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS. BETTER CHANCE 
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 
VFR. WINDS BECOME SW. GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SKY COVER INCREASING.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT BRINGS A RISK OF -SHRA FROM N-S THROUGH THE DAY.
VFR LIKELY DOMINATES...BUT PERIODIC MVFR DUE TO LOWERED CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 
SUNRISE WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. 
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND
20-25 KT NEAR SHORE. SUSPECT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS HOWEVER...GIVEN COOL OCEAN WATERS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE SW FLOW WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO W FLOW AS A COLD FRONT CROSS
THE WATERS DURING THE TUE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE PERSISTENT SW
FLOW TODAY...SOME SUGGESTION WIND DRIVEN SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT
ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON TUE IF THEY REACH CRITERIA AT
ALL...BUT SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSHOWER

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WIND DIRECTIONS BECOME 
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY...BUT SPEEDS REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LOWER THROUGH 
THE PERIOD. LIGHT FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT SEAS WITH HEIGHTS BELOW 
5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING PRIMARILY FOR THE TERRAIN
INFLUENCE IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. SPECIAL STATEMENTS WILL BE
ISSUED ELSEWHERE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. EFFICIENT MIXING WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S...WHICH YIELD MIN RH VALUES AROUND THE
20 PERCENT MARK THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START RELATIVELY LIGHT
OUT OF THE SW...BUT THEN INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH. GUSTS WILL
PEAK MAINLY BETWEEN 3PM AND 7PM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND A
PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IS LIKELY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF

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