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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
407 am EDT sun Jul 5 2015

high pressure returns today...and lingers through Monday. Becoming
more humid Tuesday and Wednesday. A series of fronts will bring
a risk for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. A
front will stall south of the area on Thursday and Friday.


Near term /through today/...
high pressure from the plains builds east over New England. As
noted by previous forecaster...model cross sections of relative humidity show
a very shallow layer of moisture near 800 mb. This suggests the
possibility of some diurnal cumulus developing. Plenty of sunshine
today will mean much higher temperatures than what we saw on
Independence day. Weak pressure gradient will lead to the
development of seabreezes...mainly this afternoon.


Short term /tonight through 6 PM Monday/...
fair skies tonight with light winds and radiational cooling. Dew
points rise to around temperatures should not be as low as
they have been the past few days. This may also support patches
of fog developing late at night...especially across western Massachusetts.

High confidence for dry conditions deep high pressure
should be in place near southern New England. Warmer still...with
the higher starting point. Dew points continue to slowly increase
as well. Weak pressure gradient should lead to more seabreezes.


Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...

* showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday
* unsettled weather may continue into late week

Overview and model preferences...gradual transition period is
expected through the long ridging across the NE Continental U.S.
Gives way to near zonal flow thanks to pinwheeling shortwaves
around a centralized vortex in north central Canada. Although southern New
England remains on the southern periphery of the mean jet within this
zonal flow /even 500 mb height anomalies are near to above normal/
this flow makes nailing down timing of weak ridge/trough Couplets
difficult for late in the week. This difficulty is exacerbated by
a stalled frontal boundary not too far to the S...which will
provide a near surface baroclinic zone for these waves to work upon.
Therefore...exactly how unsettled the late week period winds up
being remains in flux...but given fair agreement on at least the
synoptic scale between operational/ensemble guidance a blend will
be a good starting point with this update.


Monday night into Tuesday...high pressure will shift offshore of the
region...allowing for return flow and warm advection in increase.
This will lead to the slow approach of a weakening warm front
during the day on Wednesday. BUFKIT data does show surface instability is
available...mainly in the form of thin-profiled 500-1000 j/kg of
cape and precipitable waters nearly 1.5 Standard deviations above normal. Speed-
shear is minimal but still note typical strong veering of the
profile in the lowest levels ahead of the front. Therefore...
thunder will still be included in the forecast for Tuesday
afternoon...but severe potential will be mainly dependent on
shear...which is better further north...but non-zero here. Temperatures will
be dictated by cloud cover...but will likely see middle-upper 80s
where any sunny breaks are observed.

Wednesday...after a brief period within the warm sector...a cold front
will be slowly crossing the region by day on Wednesday. How much
instability is available will depend upon how deep in the warm
sector we get and how many breaks of sun are allowed before the
front arrives /looks like around middle day/. Surface dewpoint/temperatures promote
a bit more potential for cape values to exceed 1000 j/kg but once
again shear is a limiting factor. Precipitable waters are high...about 2.0
inches or 2 Standard deviations above normal. Therefore...agree with
previous forecasters assessment of heavy rain being the most
likely threat. Will continue to include this in the severe weather potential statement.

Thursday and Friday...uncertainty peaks during this period primarily due
to the stalling frontal boundary off the S coast as zonal steering
flow begins to parallel. This zonal flow will also feature several
weak shortwaves leaving the confines of a strong vortex to the northwest.
Therefore...depending on how close this wave stays...periodic
showery weather is likely for the end of the week. Studies also
suggest this is a good conduit for upstream mesoscale convective system development which
will need to be monitored. Not a true ring-of- fire here...but any
remnants of upstream convection will certainly need to be watched.
In any case...not a washout here as there is likely to be some dry
periods as well. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above 850 mb temperatures are in the +12c to +14c range as an ensemble

Next weekend...there are a couple of different camps to follow.
With the robust vortex elongated and shifting east...ridging is
expected to build ahead....which could provide enough of a block
to yield mainly dry conditions. However...the approach of this
vortex could also signify continuing the unsettled pattern with
cooling upper level temperatures and increased moisture. Feel that low end
probability of precipitation will cover the spread for now...but with ensembles in both
camps have a hard time going with any one solution at this time.


Aviation /08z Sunday through Thursday/...
forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

Short-term /through Monday/...

High confidence VFR most of the time. Weak pressure gradient will
lead to sea breeze development both today and Monday. Patchy IFR
in fog tonight...mainly in the CT River Valley of Massachusetts.

Kbos terminal...high confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal...high confidence in taf.

Outlook /Monday night through Thursday/...

Monday night into Wednesday...moderate confidence. A series of fronts will
cross the water...with the threat for daytime thunderstorms and
nighttime fog. S winds should remain below Small Craft Advisory
should seas.

Thursday...moderate confidence. A front will stall near the South
Coast. While periodic showers and fog are likely...there may be a
building swell reaching near Small Craft Advisory thresholds.
However...this is uncertain at this time.


forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

High confidence through Monday. Latest model wave guidance is too
high compared to latest observations. Wound up subtracting 1 foot
from the forecast guidance. No longer expecting seas to reach 5 feet
through Monday. With weak winds already in place. Canceled the
Small Craft Advisory for the southern outer coastal waters.

Outlook /Monday night through Thursday/...

Monday night through Wednesday...moderate confidence. A series of fronts
will move across the area Tuesday and Wednesday. This will lead to showers
and thunderstorms possible by day...and fog by night. Therefore...
VFR by day with periodic MVFR/IFR in showers/storms. With the
possibility MVFR/IFR in fog at night.

Thursday...moderate confidence. Transitioning to more widespread VFR.
But showers will linger.


Box watches/warnings/advisories...
Rhode Island...none.


near term...Belk
short term...Belk
long term...doody

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