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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
938 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2015

high pressure moving off the coast will bring dry conditions with a
warming trend this weekend. Very warm to hot temperatures with dry
weather expected for much of next week. The hottest days look to
be Wednesday and possibly Thursday. A backdoor front will bring
briefly cooler temperatures along the coast Tuesday and perhaps
again late in the week.


Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
935 PM update...
area of middle/high clouds starting to spill into north Massachusetts from the north
and west. Expect increasing clouds overnight...especially north zones
as a shortwave passes to the north...but some cloud cover will spill
into southern areas as well. Otherwise...expect patchy fog to
develop again late tonight in the usual spots as temperatures cool down
to the dewpoints. Low temperatures should reach the middle/upper 50s
in the normally cooler outlying the middle 60s in
the urban heat islands of downtown Boston and Providence as well
as the cape/islands.


Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night/...
Sunday...a weak surface trough develops over southern New England.
Models are a little more robust increasing the amount of moisture
over the region. While there is still some dry air and we expect
most of the day to be dry across southern New England...there is a
slight chance of a few hit or miss showers developing across the
area. Temperatures will warm into the middle 80s for most locations.

Sunday night...showers and diurnal clouds will dissipate leaving
another night of mostly clear skies over the area. Low pressure
over Quebec will bring what appears to be a weak front through
southern New England overnight. But the only evidence of this will
be a slight wind shift from the southwest to the west. Overnight
temperatures will be warmer than the previous few nights with lows in
the 60s to around 70.


Long term /Monday through Saturday/...

* high confidence in well above normal temperatures most of next week
* brief cool down mainly eastern sections Tuesday and again late in week
* mainly dry weather expected with upper level ridge in control


All models from the latest operational runs to their ensembles are
in excellent agreement in an upper level ridge of high pressure
dominating our weather right through the upcoming week.
Therefore...confidence is unusually high in above to well above
normal temperatures with mainly dry weather. Outside of any
backdoor fronts which will discuss below...high temperatures should mainly
be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Hottest days look to be Wednesday and
possibly Thursday if a backdoor cold front holds off a bit. Its possible
some locations see highs in the middle 90s with west to northwest
flow on one or both of these days. This type of flow tends keep
dewpoints below 70...but can sometimes allow for high temperatures to over
achieve a bit so something we will need to watch.

The only two concerns revolve around backdoor cold fronts and their
affects...especially across eastern New England. Most guidance in
good agreement in showing a high across eastern Canada...sending a
backdoor front across eastern New England Tuesday. Main affects will be
found across eastern New England...where portions of the coast may
not break 80. While guidance differs on the timing later next week
week...appears we may be dealing with another backdoor front and
brief cool down especially across eastern sections.

As for precipitation chances...given upper level ridge overhead
expect mainly dry weather. We can never rule out a spot
shower/storm during peak afternoon heating with perhaps a little
better chance late in the week depending on potential/position of
backdoor front Thursday or Friday. But again...upper level ridging tends to
limit convection so not sold on anything yet.


Aviation /02z Sunday through Thursday/...
forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Sunday night/...

Tonight...high confidence in VFR other then very localized MVFR-IFR
fog developing again in the typically prone locations late.

Sunday...high confidence. Mainly VFR. Low confidence in a few hit
or miss showers developing Sunday afternoon.

Sunday night...high confidence. VFR. Localized MVFR fog developing
again in the typically prone locations.

Kbos terminal...high confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal...high confidence in taf.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...high confidence.

VFR conditions other then perhaps some very late night/early morning
patchy ground in the typically prone locations.


forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

High confidence. High pressure over the waters will keep winds
and waves low. Quiet boating weather is expected.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...high confidence.

Upper level ridge of high pressure will keep winds/seas below Small
Craft Advisory thresholds through the period. Visibility should be
good as nice boating weather expected much of next week.


Box watches/warnings/advisories...
Rhode Island...none.


near term...kjc/Frank/rlg
short term...rlg
long term...Frank

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