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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
955 PM EDT sun Aug 30 2015

mainly dry weather with hot conditions on Monday. A backdoor cold
front will bring cooler weather Tuesday but mainly just to eastern
New England... before unseasonably hot weather returns to most of
the region Wednesday and Thursday. Another backdoor cold front
should bring slightly cooler weather Friday into the Holiday
weekend...but temperatures will still be above normal with mainly
dry weather continuing.


Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
950 PM update...
weakening showers moving along the South Coast will dissipate
next hour or so as they move into the coastal waters and upper
cape/mvy. A few showers also moving east from coastal CT. Low
probability of a brief shower coastal Rhode Island around midnight...otherwise
drier air moving in from the north will keep showers S of the
region overnight.

An abundance of middle level cloudiness this evening should begin to
clear from north to south overnight. However...clouds may hang
tough near the South Coast through daybreak. Low temperatures should
range from around 60 in the normally cooler outlying locations of
northwest mainly the 60s to around 70 elsewhere. Patchy
ground fog will likely develop late in the typically prone


Short term /6 am Monday morning through Monday night/...
Monday...low pressure moving from Quebec into the Maritimes will
bring a weak cold front southward through Maine and into southern
New England. Still seeing quite a bit of dry air across the region
so am not expecting any rain and even a few diurnal clouds seem to
struggle. Strong northwesterly flow aloft contributes to the dry
air in the middle and upper levels but also brings warmer 850mb temperatures
into the region. Expect high temperatures in the upper 80s to around
90 for most locations. Onshore winds along the South Coast will
keep the immediate coast a bit cooler with highs in the lower to middle

Monday night...the upper ridge and high pressure at the surface
start to build into southern New England. Expect clear skies and
with drier northwesterly winds...temperatures should radiate out a
bit more. Expect lows in the 60s to around 70.


Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...

* very warm on Tuesday except cooler eastern New England coast
* unseasonably hot Wednesday and Thursday
* a bit cooler Friday into the Holiday weekend but still above normal
* mainly dry other then perhaps a spot shower/storm Thursday


All models and their ensembles continue to show strong upper level
ridging in control of our weather right through next weekend. This
means above to well above normal temperatures and mainly dry
weather. We may see enough forcing to spark a few spot
showers/thunderstorms sometime Thursday into Thursday evening with a backdoor
cold front. However...odds are against any widespread meaningful
rainfall given upper level will keep probability of precipitation in the slight
chance range for now.

The exception from the well above normal temperatures will be Tuesday
across coastal New England...when a backdoor cold front keeps highs
mainly in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. However...the lower CT
River Valley should still see highs in the upper 80s on Tuesday and its
not out of the question that someone touches 90.

The hottest weather look to be Wednesday and possibly into Thursday
with 850 mb temperatures around 18c. This should allow highs in the upper
80s and lower 90s and would not be surprised to see a few locations
hit the middle 90s.

Another backdoor cold front will cool temperatures down a few degrees Friday
into Sat...especially across eastern New England. However...still
expect temperatures to remain above normal right through the Holiday
weekend given upper level ridging in control.


Aviation /02z Monday through Friday/...
forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

High confidence through Monday night. VFR through Monday night
other than late night/early morning patchy ground fog in the
typically prone locations.

Kbos terminal...high confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal...high confidence in taf.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...high confidence.

VFR conditions through the period other than very late night/early
morning patchy ground fog in the typically prone locations. A spot
shower or thunderstorm or two is possible Thursday/Thursday evening...but
odds are against anything widespread.


forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

High confidence. High pressure over the waters will keep winds
and waves below small craft criteria. Quiet boating weather is
expected. There is a low probability of a brief period of 5 foot
seas on the southern waters late Monday into Monday evening.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...high confidence.

Upper level ridge of high pressure will keep winds/seas below Small
Craft Advisory thresholds through the period. Visibility should be
good as nice boating weather expected through next week.
A backdoor cold front Tuesday and again sometime Thursday into Friday will shift
winds to the east...but gusts should generally remain less than 20


Box watches/warnings/advisories...
Rhode Island...none.


near term...kjc/Frank
short term...rlg
long term...Frank

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