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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
143 PM EDT Monday Aug 31 2015


Hot and humid today...then a backdoor cold front will bring
cooler weather Tuesday mainly just to eastern New England.
Unseasonably hot weather returns to most of the region Wednesday
and Thursday. Another backdoor cold front should bring slightly
cooler weather Friday into the Holiday weekend...but temperatures
will still be above normal with mainly dry weather continuing.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...

2 PM update...

Some showers popping up west of our area within the broader cyclonic
flow and along the leading edge of what appears to be a favorable
area of positive vorticity advection in a region of strong daytime
heating. Showers struggling within the overall dry airmass. Could
we see some of this energy into our region? Would not be surprised
though isolated. Greater chance along a thin fine-line observed
via radar along the immedate coast of CT and per local observation. Can
see some localized convergent flow. That line does extend on up
the coastline into Buzzards Bay. Will monitor this closely. Again
any activity localized and isolated. Little impact.

Remainder of the forecast on track. Scattered-broken middle- to
high-level cloud decks. Highs warming into the upper-80s to low-
90s. Breezy W-winds.


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Tuesday/...

weak backdoor front will move S into southern New England late tonight. Main
effect will be a wind shift to light north winds and drying in the
low levels. Noting ki values crashing below zero 06-12z. Dry
conditions and moclear skies expected. Patchy fog possible again
in normally prone locations. Lows will be in the 60s to around 70

the weak front will likely mix out during the day as weak area of
high pressure develops over the region. Very dry air in the middle
levels will result in lots of sunshine. Seabreezes will quickly
develop on both coasts with cooler temperatures especially across east
coastal Massachusetts...but not much cooler CT valley. Temperatures will reach middle
to upper 80s away from the coast and near 90 CT valley...but upper
70s along immediate coast of east Massachusetts.


Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...


* unseasonably hot Wednesday and Thursday
* a bit cooler Friday into the Holiday weekend but still above normal
* mainly dry other then perhaps a spot shower/storm Thursday


00z guidance is in good agreement for this portion of the forecast.
Anomalous upper-level ridge strengthens over the area by the middle to
latter half of the week lasting into Labor Day. Only caveat is a
backdoor cold front on Thursday which could bring a few storms to
the region. This front could also cool temperatures down on Friday.
Otherwise have high confidence that temperatures will generally be
above average through most of the period...with very little
appreciable rain.


Wednesday into Thursday...high confidence.

Summer returns as high pressure will strengthen during this period.
Wednesday and Thursday looks to be the warmest of the week as the
axis of the ridge builds over the region. 850mb temperatures will be well
above normal reaching around 18-20c. Which will lead to high temperatures
in the u80s to l90s...and even a few locations reaching the middle 90s!
This could potential lead to the CT River Valley seeing a 3 to 4
days heat wave...beginning today. Overall precipitation chances will low
during the period thanks to the dome of high pressure. However
potent shortwave moving over the Maritimes will bring a back door
cold front through on Thursday. This could trigger a few showers and
thunderstorms thanks to the soupy airmass ahead of the front.

Friday into the weekend...high confidence.

A cool down is anticipated on Friday behind the stable back door
cold front. In fact highs may stay in the upper 70s to low 80s. This
will be a welcome feel compared to the low to middle 90s possible on

Upper level ridge continues to build into the Holiday weekend. This
will allow for temperatures to moderate through the weekend. Again very
little rain is anticipated within the pattern.


Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...

Forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Tuesday night/...

18z update...

Today through Tuesday night...high confidence.

VFR. Breezy west-winds through evening. Patchy IFR fog in typically
prone locations overnight. Light west-winds with sea- breezes likely
Tuesday. Patchy possibly widespread IFR fog into Wednesday morning.

Kbos terminal...high confidence in taf. Sea breeze likely by
late-morning Tuesday.

Kbdl terminal...high confidence in taf.

Outlook /Tuesday night through Friday/...high confidence.

VFR conditions through the period. Could see very late
night/early morning patchy ground fog in the typically prone
locations.Passing front may trigger a spot shower or thunderstorm
or two...but odds are against anything widespread.



Forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Tuesday/...high confidence.

2 PM major changes.

Increasing low level winds will result in SW gusts around 20 knots
developing this afternoon into the evening. Seas should remain
below Small Craft Advisory thresholds but there is a low probability of seas building to
5 feet over southern waters late today and this evening. Winds
shift to light north late tonight then becoming east/southeast Tuesday afternoon
with subsiding seas.

Outlook /Tuesday night through Friday/...high confidence.

High pressure will build through the period. Near shore waters may
gusts to near 15kts each day. Small Craft Advisory are not anticipated. A back door
cold front will swing through on Thursday switching the westerly
winds to the east. Otherwise tranquil boating weather.


Box watches/warnings/advisories...
Rhode Island...none.


near term...sipprell
short term...kjc
long term...dunten

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