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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
1007 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015


A cold front which will sweep the region late tonight into Saturday
behind which will immediately follow a band of light rain showers
and cooler temperatures. High pressure building into New England
will result in dry and chilly weather Sunday and especially
Monday. Low pressure tracking up towards the Great Lakes will
bring rain late Tuesday and Tuesday night which may linger into
Wednesday. Dry and seasonable temperatures are likely by next
Thursday and Friday.


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...

10 PM update ...

Cold front sweeping southeast out of the Great Lakes region extending
from extreme north Vermont southeast towards central Ohio and down into central
Arkansas and East Texas. Accompanying middle level cloud decks lowering
with the gradual approach of the cold front. SW-winds continued
breezy along and ahead with occassional gusts especially for east/southeast
New England and high terrain. In wake of the cold front ... lower
cloud decks and some soupy conditions associated with a band of
light rain. North-winds follow gusting immediately behind the front
and dropping temperatures rather swiftly.

So for the rest of tonight ... remaining mild and breezy out of
the SW prior to the front which is expected to sweep the area
closer towards morning. Middle-level cloud decks lowering will limit
the threat of dense fog as we saw last night. Temperatures holding
around the 50s prior to the cold front behind which they drop
thereafter into the 40s. Overall a dry period but in wake of the
cold front expecting the band of light rain to move into mass by


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/...


Cold front will push through the remainder of our area during Sat
morning...slowing its southward progression for a period of time
just to our south. Colder air will be moving into our area behind
the front. Models also indicate flow becoming NE /onshore/ so low
level moisture lingers across our area...which will likely keep
overcast skies and scattered showers around. The onshore flow may
also bring some reduced visibilities closer to the have
some patchy fog mentioned across portions of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
Temperatures during the day will not get much higher than the previous
night's low temperatures...more probable they will be nearly steady or
slowly falling during the day.

Saturday night...

Front pushes further south away from our area...and models
indicate drier air finally starts moving into southern New
England. Still a slight chance pop along south coastal Massachusetts/Rhode Island with
patchy fog to start. Otherwise decreasing clouds expected during
the night. Seasonable lows.


Long term /Sunday through Friday/...


* dry and chilly sun and especially Monday
* rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night possibly lingering into Wednesday/Wednesday night
* dry and seasonable temperatures likely next Thursday/Friday



Mostly sunny and chilly weather is on tap for Sunday. This a result
of high pressure over eastern Canada resulting in northerly winds.
High temperatures will mainly be in the middle to upper 40s.

Sunday night and Monday...

High pressure will be shifting from eastern Canada and into New
England. This will send a reinforcing shot of shallow cold air into
our region. The one thing will have to watch for are some low clouds
especially late Sun night into Monday across eastern New England as
surface winds turn north northeast. Confidence not too high in how
much of these clouds will develop...but southeast New England coast
has the highest risk.

As for temperatures it will be rather chilly with the shallow cold air. Low
temperatures Sunday night will mainly be in the 20s...but portions of the
southeast coast may end up milder if some lower clouds arrive. High
temperatures on Monday will likely be held in the upper 30s and lower 40s
given the shallow chilly air in place and low sun angle this time of

Tuesday and Wednesday...

As high pressure moves away from New England on Tuesday. A vigorous
closed upper level low will lift towards the Great Lakes along with
its surface reflection. This will put US on the mild side of the
system and we will be dealing with just a rain event. Timing still
tricky and some showers are possible during the day Tuesday especially
across the interior. However...the bulk of the steady rain may hold
off until Tuesday night. Some sort of secondary low pressure system
will try to get going in the vicinity of southern New England.
Depending on where and how soon this secondary low pressure system
develops...will determine if rain lingers into much of Wednesday and even
Wednesday night.

Thursday and Friday...

High pressure building in from the west should result in dry weather
with seasonable temperatures. Probably will be blustery on Thursday as
gusty northwest winds likely develop behind the storm system.


Aviation /03z Saturday through Wednesday/...

Forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Saturday night/ ... high confidence.

Tonight ...

VFR. Middle-high ceilings lowering to low-end VFR prior to the approach
of a cold front by morning. Breezy SW-winds gradually veering west
ahead of the cold front ... backing out of the north with passage.
Behind the front ceilings fall to a mix of MVFR-IFR with -shra.


Mix of MVFR-IFR ceilings with tendencies towards the former across the
interior with the latter along the coast. Band of -shra dissipating
S and offshore. North-winds turning breezy especially to east/se-coastal

Kbos terminal...mostly VFR. MVFR towards morning around and in the
wake of an anticipated cold frontal passage. Thereafter into
Saturday can not rule out some IFR mixing in as NE-flow increases
with gusts around 15 kts.

Kbdl terminal...mostly VFR. MVFR towards morning around and in the
wake of an anticipated cold frontal passage.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday...high confidence in VFR conditions.

Sunday night and Monday...moderate confidence. Biggest uncertainty
is if some MVFR ceilings back off the ocean Sun night/Mon. Highest risk
is across southeast New England.

Tuesday and Wednesday...moderate confidence. Extended period of
MVFR to IFR conditions likely in low clouds...fog patches along with
rain. Worst of the conditions mostly likely Tuesday night into Wednesday.



Forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Saturday night/ ... high confidence.

Small-craft advisories continue for the outer waters. Wave heights
of 4 to 6 feet continuing beneath brisk SW-winds which continue to
gust around 25 kts. Will see this trend continue into Saturday
morning prior to a cold frontal passage and a band of light rain
showers behind which winds will back out of the north/NE and increase
with gusts around 15-20 kts. Swell out of the S/SW meeting up with
NE-winds during this timeframe could lead to some choppy seas.
Small-craft advisories conclude as of Saturday evening ... but may
need to extend on the account of 5 foot seas lingering.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday and Monday...moderate to high confidence. A period of
marginal northeast small craft wind gusts and seas are expected over
the open waters Sunday night into Monday. This a result of a secondary
cold front with and a period of decent mixing the cold air advection

Monday night and Tuesday...high confidence. High pressure nearby
will keep winds/seas below small craft thresholds.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...moderate confidence. Low pressure
initially tracking to our west will likely allow marginal southeast
Small Craft Advisory wind gusts and seas to develop Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Wind
direction and seas become uncertain during the day Wednesday depending on
where and if secondary low pressure develops. Small craft
conditions are certainly a good bet though.



Record highs today...

Bos...72 in 1896
pvd...66 in 1946
bdl...67 this afternoon breaks the old record of 64 in 1976
orh...66 in 1896


Box watches/warnings/advisories...

Rhode Island...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Saturday for anz235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for anz250-



near term...Frank/sipprell/nmb
short term...nmb
long term...Frank
marine...Frank/nmb/sipprell forecast office box staff

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