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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
1050 PM EDT sun may 3 2015

Synopsis...
southwest winds between high pressure off the middle Atlantic coast
and low pressure north of New England will lead to a warm and dry
Monday. A cold front sweeps south across the region Tuesday. High
pressure rebuilds with dry and warming weather the remainder of
the work week.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
10 PM update...
as expected with the loss of sunshine the -shra across the west have
pretty much all diminished. Rest of the overnight remains dry.
Temperatures a bit milder tonight thanks to an increase in overall
moisture through the column and in the lowest levels...some leftover
cloud cover and an increasing pressure gradient. Adjusted mins toward
latest met guidance which is handling current diurnal curve best.

430 PM update...
scattered showers were still occurring across western and north
central Massachusetts late this afternoon...to the north and west of a
pronounced sea breeze front that extended all the way into
Worcester County. These showers should completely diminish by
this evening with sunset. Skies will gradually clear overnight.
Minimum temperatures are forecast mainly from 45 to 50.

&&

Short term /6 am Monday morning through Monday night/...
sunny skies and probably the warmest day we have experienced this
year. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to rise to +11-12c with 925 mb
temperatures of +16-18c which should translate to many interior spots
reaching the lower 80s. Southwest flow will keep it cooler on the
South Coast...but still could reach the upper 60s to middle 70s
there. There could be a sea breeze briefly along the East Coast
before southwest winds increase during the afternoon...then it
should warm up even on east coastal areas.

Good mixing means that drier dewpoints from aloft will come down
and minimum relative humidities will drop to 15 to 30 percent
across much of the area. That combined with the potential for wind
gusts to 25+ miles per hour late in the day has led to the issuance of a Fire
Weather Watch...see fire weather section below for concerns.

Winds at 925 mb are forecast to increase to 35 knots between 4 PM
and 8 PM in eastern CT...RI...and eastern Massachusetts. Sustained winds at
that time are forecast to be 10 to 15 miles per hour. The NAM shows an
inversion at 1000 feet which prevents gusts greater than 20 miles per hour from
reaching the surface but the GFS has a short window from 3 PM to
6 PM in which there could be gusts to 20-30 miles per hour.

Clouds will increase late Monday night ahead of an advancing cold
front and there is a chance of showers in northern and western Massachusetts
toward daybreak. There will be a strong low level jet of 40 knots at
925 mb but convective indices are not that unstable...so have
removed thunder potential for the Monday night time frame.

&&

Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
* above normal temperatures expected throughout the week
* cold front moves through Tuesday with showers possible
* potential for a back door cold front Saturday

A decent blocking system is setting up across the United States this
week with a trough across the western states and a strong ridge over
much of the eastern half of the country. Models are in agreement
through much of the long term on this block persisting. However...
towards the end of the week...the GFS is quick to break down The
Block...while the European model (ecmwf) sustains it through the weekend. This
results in a couple of differences...largely with the introduction
of a back door cold front in the ecwmf for Saturday.

Looks picture perfect for much of the long term. The two potential
exceptions to this are a cold front moving through Tuesday and a
possible back door cold front moving into the region Saturday.
Otherwise...temperatures look to be well above normal with highs
mostly in the 70s away from shore with a possibility of near 80 on
Friday.

The cold front Tuesday will likely bring some showers. Instability
looks fairly marginal at this point but cannot completely rule out
thunder so have kept the slight chance of thunder carried by the
previous forecast.

The back door cold front Saturday is confined to the European model (ecmwf) solution
with no sign of it in the GFS. So Saturday is a somewhat low
confidence forecast. If the European model (ecmwf) is right...cooler and cloudier
weather with some rain possible. If the GFS verifies...one more
beautiful Spring day...before a potential cold front. All that
said...typically the European model (ecmwf) handles these blocking scenarios a bit
better than the GFS so will lean towards the European model (ecmwf) at this time.

&&

Aviation /02z Monday through Friday/...
forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

Tonight and Monday...high confidence. VFR. Winds become SW
overnight and continue Monday. Gusts of 20-25 knots are possible late
Monday afternoon and evening.

Monday night...high confidence. VFR. Chance of showers in northwest Massachusetts
late.

Kbos taf...high confidence in taf.

Kbdl taf...high confidence in taf.

Outlook...Tuesday through Friday...

High confidence. Mainly VFR. Low probability of brief MVFR/IFR
conditions in scattered -shra/isolated -tsra Tuesday.

&&

Marine...
forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

Short-term /through Monday/...

Through tonight...high confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather expected with high pressure sliding southeast
of the waters. Any onshore sea breezes near the coast will give
way to prevailing S to SW flow overnight.

Monday...moderate confidence.
SW flow may approach 25 knots near the southeast coast of Massachusetts...but remain 20
knots or less on the open ocean.

Monday night...moderate confidence. Could have seas building to
5 feet over the outer waters. SW winds gusting to near 20 knots at
times.

Outlook...Tuesday through Friday...high confidence.

Tuesday...winds and seas diminish as high pressure builds in behind
the cold front crossing the waters early.

Wednesday through Friday...quiet boating weather with high pressure
over the waters.

&&

Fire weather...
a Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 2 PM to 8 PM Monday for
much of our forecast area. This was based on coordination with
state fire weather managers. Temperatures in the lower 80s with
minimum relative humidities in the 25-30 percent range will be
the rule over much of the interior away from the coast. However...
models show that in portions of Franklin and northern Worcester
counties...the humidity could drop as low as 15-20 percent Monday
afternoon. The parameter most in question though is the winds.
Ideally...wind gusts to 25 miles per hour would be required but in
Massachusetts...gusts to 15 to 20 miles per hour could raise some concern on
Monday. We are expecting sustained winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour but a
small window mainly between 3 PM and 6 PM in which wind gusts
could gust to between 20 and 30 miles per hour.

&&

Box watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for ctz002>004.
Massachusetts...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for maz002>021-026.
Rhode Island...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for riz001>005.
Marine...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...doody/gaf
near term...rlg/gaf
short term...gaf
long term...rlg
aviation...rlg/gaf
marine...rlg/gaf
fire weather...

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