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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
1023 am EDT Sat may 30 2015

dry weather will continue for today thanks to an area of high
pressure. A cold front will slowly move across the region
Sunday...then stall south of New England early next week. This
will bring a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms
Sunday...and a period of rain early next week. High pressure
brings dry weather for the latter part of next week.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
1015 am update...
fog has mostly lifted with exception of the S coastal waters and
portions of Rhode Island coast...while stratus is slowly eroding across
NE CT and Rhode Island. Stratus and patchy fog will lift by
midday...otherwise expect pt-mosunny skies.

The main forecast question is extent of any convection this
afternoon. Middle level ridge remains just off the coast which will
slow cold front as it moves through the Great Lakes and stabilize east
half new eng. Main focus for convection will be across upstate New York
and Vermont in higher Theta-E axis and better instability. Models do
generate marginal instability in west new eng with convective available potential energy 500-1000
j/kg but 0-6km shear is quite weak. Hrrr shows a few isolated showers
developing in the west this afternoon and will keep slight chance
probability of precipitation west Massachusetts for a brief shower/thunderstorm this afternoon...but most of the
area will remain dry.

High temperatures will reach the low to middle 80s across much of the
region away from the S coast with warmest temperatures in the upper 80s
likely across interior NE Massachusetts. Otherwise 70s near the S coast due
to gusty SW flow. In fact...soundings support wind gusts to 25-30
miles per hour today.


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Sunday/...

Noticed guidance continues to slow down the frontal
have adjusted the forecast to account for this trend.

The cold front will begin to approach the region
tonight...bringing some much need rainfall to the region. As the
front approaches guidance indicates that showalters will be below
0 with k values above 30c. Therefore cannot rule out some
embedded thunder overnight. Area that will see the higher rainfall
amounts will be north of the Pike...especially north of Route 2.

Since the front will still be northwest of the region...anticipate
another round of fog to develop along the South Coast/cape and
islands as moisture pools along the front. Low confidence if it will
be dense or not.


Timing of the cold front is still in question as latest guidance
trend is to slow down the front. Regardless believe that the front
will cross southern New England on Sunday bringing some much needed
rain. Guidance still shows elevated thunder will
continue to mention thunder in the forecast...but strong to severe
storms are not expected.

Both the NAM and GFS indicate good boundary layer moisture along the
front as is begins to stall over the region. With precipitable water values around
1.6 inches and the front becoming aligned with the upper flow
aloft...could see the potential for heavy rain and flooding due to a
slow storm motion. Because of the uncertainty on where the front
will stall...held off on issuing any sort of Flood Watch at this
time. Right now believe that locations along and north of the Mass
Pike will see the higher precipitation amounts on Sunday. Perhaps it will
push Worcester out of the top 5 driest Mays on record.


Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
overview and model preferences...

Quite a change in the solutions of the 30/00z guidance from those
just 24 hours ago. The trend has been for a significant slow-down
of a cold frontal passage Sunday night into Monday. Some minor
differences remain...but it was noteworthy that just about all of
the guidance latched on to this slower timing. Models have also
come into better agreement with their handling of a middle level
trough early next week. More ridging returns for late next week.

Favored a model consensus solution for this forecast update to
smooth over the minor differences...where possible.

The dailies...

Sunday night through Tuesday...differences among the models on
timing a frontal passage...but all move it to the South Coast of
New England by Sunday evening. This front then should align with
the upper flow and stall. A shortwave moving through the Great
Lakes is forecast to generate a wave along this front...which
crosses the Appalachians Monday and passes south of New England
Tuesday. This low pressure...along with high pressure over eastern
Canada...should bring a cool northeast flow to the region Monday
and Tuesday. Meanwhile a southwest flow continues aloft...
providing both lift and moisture. We will maintain likely probability of precipitation
Monday...diminishing to chance probability of precipitation by late Tuesday as this low
moves east.

Wednesday through Friday...high pressure builds at the surface
and aloft...bringing dry weather to southern New England. Light
winds will favor local seabreezes during the daylight hours.
However...the increased sunshine will favor a gradual warm-up
across the interior each day.


Aviation /14z Saturday through Wednesday/...
forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

Today...moderate confidence. Patchy IFR stratus and fog near the
S coast eroding by midday...otherwise VFR. Dry weather
expected...although there is a low risk of a spot shower/
thunderstorm across western Massachusetts this afternoon/early evening.

Tonight into Sunday...moderate confidence. VFR to start with
conditions deteriorating by late tonight into Sunday due to
widespread -shra/-tsra. Fog and stratus may fill back in along the
South Coast overnight tonight. Otherwise could see some low level wind shear
across the southern sites on Sunday.

Kbos terminal...high confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal...moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook...Sunday night through Wednesday...moderate confidence.

Monday through Tuesday...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities...most likely
over the coastal plain and along the eastern slopes of the
Worcester Hills. Showers possible through both days.

Wednesday...VFR with a light north-northwest wind. Local
seabreezes possible.


forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

Short term /today through Sunday/...

Today...moderate to high confidence. Excellent mixing over the
land will generate near shore small craft wind gusts of 25 to 30
knots this afternoon. In addition...southeast swell will generate
5 foot seas across the outer-waters. Therefore...small craft
headlines posted for all waters. Areas of fog should improve
somewhat by afternoon.

Tonight...moderate to high confidence. Near shore small craft
wind gusts should diminish by the evening. However...5 foot swell
will continue across the outer-waters. Areas of dense fog
possible tonight.

Sunday...moderate confidence. May need to extend Small Craft Advisory for cold air advection
behind a passing cold front from the north. Otherwise expect
showers with embedded thunder could occur ahead of the front during
the afternoon hours.

Outlook...Sunday night through Wednesday...moderate confidence.

Monday-Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory may be needed...especially
on the eastern coastal waters. Northeast winds gusting up to 20
knots...and perhaps a few gusts to 25 knots...each day. Seas 5 to 8
feet on the eastern Massachusetts waters...and 3 to 5 feet on the southern

Wednesday...a Small Craft Advisory may be needed...mainly on the
eastern waters. Diminishing northeast to north winds. Seas of 5 feet
may linger on the eastern waters.


Box watches/warnings/advisories...
Rhode Island...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 PM EDT
Sunday for anz250-254>256.


near term...kjc/dunten
short term...dunten
long term...Belk

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