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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
620 PM EDT sun Aug 30 2015


A few showers this evening across northern CT...will give way to dry
weather with a warming trend through Monday. A backdoor cold front
will bring cooler weather Tuesday but mainly just to eastern New
England... before unseasonably hot weather returns to most of the
region Wednesday and Thursday. Another backdoor cold front should
bring slightly cooler weather Friday into the Holiday weekend...but
temperatures will still be above normal with mainly dry weather


Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...

620 PM update...

Weak frontal boundary with about 500 j/kg of MLCAPE has allowed
scattered hit and miss showers to develop across northern CT
along with isolated thunderstorms. Activity may survive in a
weakened form into Rhode Island early this evening...but then pretty
much fall apart to just sprinkles if it makes it into southeast Massachusetts
with limited instability and poor middle level lapse rates.

Enough moisture remains for middle clouds to stick around through much
of the night. This means a mild night in store with lows in the middle
60s to around 70. Patchy fog may develop again in the usual


Short term /6 am Monday morning through Monday night/...
Monday...low pressure moving from Quebec into the Maritimes will
bring a weak cold front southward through Maine and into southern
New England. Still seeing quite a bit of dry air across the region
so am not expecting any rain and even a few diurnal clouds seem to
struggle. Strong northwesterly flow aloft contributes to the dry
air in the middle and upper levels but also brings warmer 850mb temperatures
into the region. Expect high temperatures in the upper 80s to around
90 for most locations. Onshore winds along the South Coast will
keep the immediate coast a bit cooler with highs in the lower to middle

Monday night...the upper ridge and high pressure at the surface
start to build into southern New England. Expect clear skies and
with drier northwesterly winds...temperatures should radiate out a
bit more. Expect lows in the 60s to around 70.


Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...

* very warm on Tuesday except cooler eastern New England coast
* unseasonably hot Wednesday and Thursday
* a bit cooler Friday into the Holiday weekend but still above normal
* mainly dry other then perhaps a spot shower/storm Thursday


All models and their ensembles continue to show strong upper level
ridging in control of our weather right through next weekend. This
means above to well above normal temperatures and mainly dry
weather. We may see enough forcing to spark a few spot
showers/thunderstorms sometime Thursday into Thursday evening with a backdoor
cold front. However...odds are against any widespread meaningful
rainfall given upper level will keep probability of precipitation in the slight
chance range for now.

The exception from the well above normal temperatures will be Tuesday
across coastal New England...when a backdoor cold front keeps highs
mainly in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. However...the lower CT
River Valley should still see highs in the upper 80s on Tuesday and its
not out of the question that someone touches 90.

The hottest weather look to be Wednesday and possibly into Thursday
with 850 mb temperatures around 18c. This should allow highs in the upper
80s and lower 90s and would not be surprised to see a few locations
hit the middle 90s.

Another backdoor cold front will cool temperatures down a few degrees Friday
into Sat...especially across eastern New England. However...still
expect temperatures to remain above normal right through the Holiday
weekend given upper level ridging in control.


Aviation /22z Sunday through Friday/...
forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

High confidence through Monday night.

VFR today with ceilings at or above 060 and brief sprinkle possible. Local
MVFR/IFR visibilities again later tonight and again Monday night in patchy
valley fog. VFR Monday.

Kbos terminal...high confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal...high confidence in taf.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...high confidence.

VFR conditions through the period other than very late night/early
morning patchy ground fog in the typically prone locations. A spot
shower or thunderstorm or two is possible Thursday/Thursday evening...but
odds are against anything widespread.


forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

High confidence. High pressure over the waters will keep winds
and waves below small craft criteria. Quiet boating weather is
expected. There is a low probability of a brief period of 5 foot
seas on the southern waters late Monday into Monday evening.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...high confidence.

Upper level ridge of high pressure will keep winds/seas below Small
Craft Advisory thresholds through the period. Visibility should be
good as nice boating weather expected through next week.
A backdoor cold front Tuesday and again sometime Thursday into Friday will shift
winds to the east...but gusts should generally remain less than 20


Box watches/warnings/advisories...
Rhode Island...none.


near term...Frank/rlg
short term...rlg
long term...Frank

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