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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
334 am EDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015

high pressure will bring dry weather to southern New England through
Thursday. Warmer than normal temperatures today followed by cooler
conditions Thursday behind a dry cold front tonight. A more robust
cold front will bring widespread showers to the region Friday...
followed by dry and more seasonable weather for the weekend.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...

Almost a Carbon copy of yesterday...chilly morning temperatures followed by
a rapid warmup this afternoon. Thus another Gem of a day coming up
with plenty of sunshine and light winds. Even a few degrees warmer
today than yesterday courtsey of weak warm air advection ahead of an
approaching low amplitude short wave trough in the dry northwest flow
aloft. 925 mb temperatures climbing from +11c Tuesday to +13c this afternoon.
So expect highs mainly 70 to 75...with 60s along the coast as
afternoon seabreezes develop.


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Thursday/...


A weak cold front and associated low amplitude short wave move
across southern New England tonight. Moisture is lacking with the will maintain a dry forecast. Low temperatures will
mainly be in the 40s...with some lower 50s in the city of Boston and
portions of the cape/Nantucket.


Behind the cold front/short wave trough very dry airmass overspreads
New England Thursday with dew points falling into the 30s. This combined
with weak short wave ridging and associated anticyclonic middle level
flow plenty of sunshine should materialize. 925 temperatures cool down from
+13c today to about +9c Thursday. In addition subsidence inversion from
1021 mb surface high will limit blyr mixing Thursday. Thus noticeably
cooler with highs about 10 degrees cooler than today. However it will
be quite pleasant with plenty of sunshine and surface high overhead
providing light winds.


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...


* cold front moving through Friday will bring showers
* more seasonable temperatures expected through the long term
* dry weather and a warming trend for the weekend

Models are in good agreement through the long term on the synoptic
scale pattern. Overall...high pressure over southern New England
Thursday night shifts offshore Friday. Low pressure moves through
New England...bringing a cold front and accompanying showers through
southern New England on Friday. Dry weather returns for the weekend
before another cold front moves through the region early next week.
Temperatures will be largely seasonable through the period with some
variations ahead of and behind the two fronts.

Thursday night...high pressure moves offshore allowing for an
increase in clouds from the west. Light winds and seasonable
temperatures expected.

Friday...strong shortwave combines with cold front pushing through
southern New England to result in showers across the region.
Instability is not anticipating any thunder at this
point. There are some discrepancies amongst the models when it
comes to the strength of the low level jet. While gusty winds are expected
with the front...will need to resolve these differences to determine
just how gusty the winds will be. At this point...expect winds to
fall below Wind Advisory criteria.

Saturday through Sunday...northwesterly winds Saturday will bring
cooler air into the region with temperatures about 10 degrees below
normal. Then a warming trend as winds turn back to the southwest.
Dry weather is expected during this time.

Monday and Tuesday...a shortwave moves through southern New England
Tuesday as low pressure moves through Quebec into the Maritimes.
This will bring another cold front through the region. At this
point...models are indicating a lack of expect this
front to move through dry. However...this could change between now
and next week. Temperatures are expected to be several degrees
above normal.


Aviation /08z Wednesday through Sunday/...
forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Thu/...high confidence

High confidence in VFR conditions right through Thursday. The exception
will be a few hours of patchy ground fog in the typically prone
locations early this morning.

Kbos terminal...high confidence in taf but lower confidence in
seabreeze coming onshore.

Kbdl terminal...high confidence in taf.

Outlook...Thursday night through Sunday.....

Thursday night...high confidence. VFR.

Friday...high confidence. Mainly VFR. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions
in any shra/fg.

Sat and sun...high confidence. VFR.


forecaster confidence levels...

Low...less than 30 percent.
Moderate...30 to 60 percent.
High...greater than 60 percent.

Today...east-southeast swells slowly erode on the ocean waters.
Otherwise light winds and good visibility prevail.

Tonight...a weak cold front crosses the waters tonight. Winds remain
fairly light but switch from west to northwest to eventually north toward Thursday

Thursday...north winds briefly increase to 20 knots during the morning
behind departing cold front. Thus winds diminish in the afternoon.

Outlook...Friday through sun...

High pressure builds over the waters Thursday night. This will lead
to diminishing winds and seas.

A cold front will cross the waters Friday increasing winds and seas.
In addition...showers are likely with the front...limiting
visibilities. Small craft advisories will likely be necessary for
seas...if not winds.

Small craft advisories will likely need to continue into Saturday.
Winds and seas will slowly diminish Saturday and Sunday as high
pressure builds back in.


Box watches/warnings/advisories...
Rhode Island...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Thursday for anz250.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for anz251.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for


near term...nocera
short term...nocera
long term...rlg

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