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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
246 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SOME WEAK SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ONLY ONE WITH
LIGHTNING SO FAR. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED COVERAGE OF WEAK
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE ELSE. STILL
SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE UPSTREAM OVER
WYOMING...VISIBILITIES MOSTLY AROUND 8-10 MILES BUT SOME SPOTS AS
LOW AS 5. NOT QUITE AS BAD AS LAST SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY
GET A BIT WORSE IN OUR AREA TONIGHT BEFORE HOPEFULLY IMPROVING
LATER ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST. 

I DROPPED TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SLIGHTLY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH CLEARING AND DRY AIR...EXPECT ONLY A SMALL EFFECT IF ANY FROM
THE SMOKE.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A NEARLY DRY DAY AS THERE IS BOTH LOW LEVEL
DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT. STILL MIGHT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME
WEAK MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...BUT PROBABLY LESS THAN TODAY AND MAINLY
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
TODAY...MATCH GUIDANCE AND LOOK GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
OVER THE CWA AND PARTS FURTHER SOUTH FOR ALL FIVE PERIODS. LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL COVER THE CWA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY REMAINS BENIGN FOR THE
FIVE PERIODS. MODELS SHOW NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PATTERNS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND
UPSLOPE IS PROGGED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EASTERLIES ARE PROGGED MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NORMAL DRAINAGE ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS PRETTY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE DAY
SUNDAY...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA LATE DAY MONDAY. THERE IS SOME
CAPE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN BETTER
COVERAGE FOR LATE DAY SUNDAY AND LATE DAY MONDAY. THE QPF FIELDS
HAVE A TAD OVER MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS MORE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
LATE DAY SUNDAY...SAME FOR MONDAY AND THERE IS EVEN MINOR AMOUNTS
OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE PLAINS. FOR POPS...A BIT IN THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN 20-50%S LATE DAY SUNDAY AND LATE
DAY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE 10-20% POPS FOR THE PLAINS SUNDAY
EVENING AND LATE DAY MONDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY'S HIGHS
ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN SATURDAY'S. MONDAY'S COOL OFF SOME 1-4 C
FROM SUNDAY'S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT
WARMER THAN USUAL. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SMOKE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING REDUCING
VISIBILITIES INTO THE 5-10 MILE RANGE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES...THOUGH THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY. INSTRUMENT
APPROACHES TO KDEN MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH NO IMPACT EXPECTED AT
THE DENVER AREA TERMINALS. EVEN LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD

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