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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
353 am MDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Short term...(today through tonight )
issued at 353 am MDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Northwest flow aloft will be over the area with a couple of minor
disturbances embedded in the flow. In addition an axis of somewhat
stronger winds at 250 mb will reside over the area as well. Best
moisture will be in the mountains and southern foothills and across the
plamer Divide. Over northestern Colorado precipitable water values will
decrease to around an inch along the Front Range with lower values
over the plains. Will keep the highest probability of precipitation in the mountains and southern
foothills and over the Palmer Divide with just a slight chance
over much of the urban corridor. Over the plains will keep a dry
forecast in place through tonight. Although precipitable water values are
lower today still could see some locally heavy rain in the mountains
along and south of I-70 and over South Park. As for temperatures readings
will be warmer with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 along the
Front Range while temperatures over the far northestern plains rise into the middle
80s where less cloud cover wil exist.

For tonight will continue to see showers and a few thunderstorms linger in
the mountains...southern foothills and across South Park this evening with
activity ending by midnight. Over northestern Colorado it should be dry except
for a slight chance of early evening showers/thunderstorms near the foothills.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 353 am MDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Over the next few days...drier weather will return to the plains
while the afternoon showers continue to develop over the
mountains. The plume of monsoonal moisture is losing its
organization as the upper high settles southward over northwest
Mexico. Some middle- and high level moisture will continue moving
over the state...but quasi-geostrophic diagnostics of the various
models indicate that the northeast quarter of the state will be
under weak subsidence through the end of the week. This should
suppress most shower development on the plains and keep showers
over the higher terrain and adjacent areas. Temperatures will also
continue a gradual return closer to normal values. Winds aloft
will remain light under the northern periphery of the upper the threat of slow moving storms will continue with
locally heavy rainfall possible. This weakly forced and terrain
driven pattern should continue through Sunday.

Early next week will see a shift in the upper air pattern as
models continue showing an upper trough moving across the state
from Monday evening through Wednesday. This will spread shower
activity across the forecast area and drop temperatures back to
about 10-15 degrees cooler than normal.


Aviation...(for the tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 353 am MDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Not sure about how much fog will develop this morning as there is a
cloud deck in the 8000-10000 feet range which has shown no signs of
breaking up at this point. If this could deck persists through middle
morning then prospects of widespread fog with IFR/LIFR conditions
will be rather low. Otherwise for this afternoon there will be a slight
chance of thunderstorms however it appears most of this activity will stay to
the SW of the Airport. As for winds will latest hrrr/rap has them
mainly southerly this morning and then becoming Ely by early afternoon. By
this evening they may become light west-northwest for a few hours and then to
drainage by 06z.


issued at 353 am MDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

The best chance of afternoon thunderstorms will be in the
mountains...southern foothills...Palmer Divide and across South
Park. An isolated storm or two could produce up to an inch of rain
in 45 minutes or less. Over most of northeast Colorado it will be
dry except for a slight chance of thunderstorms along the Front
Range with rainfall amounts up to one half inch possible.


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...rpk
long term...dankers

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