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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
853 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Update...
issued at 851 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

A disturbance was moving quickly across the area early this
evening with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving across northestern
Colorado. Most of this activity should be done by midnight.

&&

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 1256 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Weak ridging over eastern Colorado while next upper level trough
moving east over the Great Basin this afternoon. Satellite imagery
showing an increase in middle and high level moisture over western Colorado
and this will be pushing across the rest of the state through this
evening. Isolated showers beginning to develop over the mountains
and this will spread east over the plains later this afternoon and
evening. Overall instability not that great with drying low
levels from Denver southward. Expect mainly gusty outflow winds
with the storms with brief rain. As the showers push east over the
plains...storms may get a bit stronger with better low level
moisture to work with.

There will be a lull in the moisture by later this evening...then
increasing again as qg ascent increases over the northern
mountains by early Sunday morning. There will also be a strong
90kt jet streak which will rotate across northern Colorado during
the day on Sunday. For this will keep some low probability of precipitation over the
mountains all night and into Sunday am. The best ascent will be
over eastern Colorado during the early afternoon so expect an
earlier start time with the storms. Moisture levels are still a
bit on the low side so nothing too strong. Should see rapid
clearing by late afternoon from west to east as the trough sweeps
across northern Colorado and strong subsidence moves in. Also
expect an increase in gusty west-northwest winds over the mountains and
northern foothills. Could see some gusts in the 30-45 miles per hour range.

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 1256 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

The upper trough axis shifts to the east Sunday night with a dry
northwesterly flow aloft in its place. The flow aloft will remain
moderate to strong on Monday with just a few high based showers or
thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. The driest and warmest days
of the week will occur on Tuesday and Wednesday. The flow aloft
will be zonal with a broad ridge to the south pinching off the
flow of subtropical moisture into Colorado...and a trough well to
the northwest over British Columbia. The flow will transition to
more of a southwesterly component by Thursday...with some
subtropical moisture starting to advect back into Colorado by
Thursday afternoon...this trend for cooler and wetter conditions
will continue into the rest of the period. A cold front does slide
into northeast Colorado on Friday with another over the weekend...will
allow for shallow upslope and low level level moisture to increase
over the urban corridor and adjacent plains Friday through Sunday.

&&

Aviation...(for the tafs through 06z Sunday evening)
issued at 851 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Last batch of showers was moving across with another surge of
gusty west-northwest winds. Expect this activity will be done by 04z with
winds decreasing as well. Winds should gradually become drainage
by 06z.

&&

Bou watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Update...rpk
short term...entrekin
long term...Cooper
aviation...rpk

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