Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
818 PM MDT Monday Oct 20 2014

issued at 734 PM MDT Monday Oct 20 2014

The meager convection is gone as well as nearly all the clouds at
this time. The upstream on the satellite pictures is quite sparse
of middle and upper level cloudiness as well. Will adjust cloud
cover and zero out probability of precipitation and weather. Temperatures and winds are
not looking all that bad so we'll keep them.


Short term...(this afternoon through tuesday)
issued at 309 PM MDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Another warm day as the upper ridge just to our east brings in
warm south-southwesterly flow aloft. A deepening surface trough on
the Lee of The Rockies is increasing southerly surface winds with
gusts in the 20-30 miles per hour range over the eastern plains. Expect the
south winds to continue although at weaker speeds through the
night. Isolated showers over the high country will increase
slightly in coverage this afternoon...and will continue into the
early evening with a slight chance of a thunderstorm or two. Some
of the high res models depict some of these moving northeast onto
the foothills and possibly over the urban corridor. Believe the
airmass down below is too stable and the only effect may be gusty
outflow. Higher dewpoints should move north into the area
overnight to bring areas of fog over the eastern plains...mainly
over Lincoln and southern Washington counties. The WRF simulated
fog product shows this nicely...showing up after midnight.

An upper trough over the Great Basin will move toward the state
Tuesday to spread showers over the mountains during the morning
then over the foothills and possibly over the urban corridor by
late afternoon. Weak cape and upward qg vertical velocities may
allow for a few thunderstorms during the afternoon. Temperatures
over the plains will be close or slightly warmer than
today...while the increase cloud cover and an approaching cold
front will produce near or slightly cooler temperatures over the

Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 309 PM MDT Monday Oct 20 2014

The upper level trough will transition into southern Montana by
Tuesday evening bringing additional moisture into the region. This
trailing moisture will combine with tropical moisture influence
from the south to bring scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms Tuesday evening and showers overnight over much of
the plains and foothills. With the cooler air and increased
moisture over the mountains...snowshowers will fall to 9000ft
where a few inches in accumulation is possible over the high

A cold front will move over NE Colorado early Wednesday bringing
another shot of moisture that will aid in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms for the plains and foothills Wednesday
afternoon. With increased cape and decent qg...chances for
thunderstorms are better on Wednesday but will still be isolated
in nature. With cold frontal passage temperatures on Wednesday
will be cooler than the preceding few days and return to seasonal
normals. The system will transition quickly out of the region with
subsidence and warming behind it as another ridge moves in from
the west.

For Thursday through Sunday an upper level ridge will build back
in with predominant west-northwest flow. This flow combined with a Lee side
trough setup will aid in increasing temperatures into the upper
70s and lower 80s which could bring record breaking temperatures for
both Friday and Saturday.

For Sunday evening and beyond...extended models are bringing down
an upper level trough that will just be entering the northwest region of
the state by Sunday evening. This will be the next opportunity for
precipitation and cooler temperatures.


Aviation...(for the tafs through 06z Tuesday evening)
issued at 734 PM MDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Pretty decent southerly winds are still going strong at dia. They
are expected to decrease somewhat but still stay around 10 knots
overnight. No ceiling issues.


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...kriederman
long term...Bowen

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations