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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
256 am MDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Short term...(today through tonight )
issued at 253 am MDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Dry west-northwest flow aloft will conver most of the area through tonight. Some
weak influx on monsoon moisture may affect the higher terrain south
of I-70 where an isolated thunderstorm or two may occur late this afternoon.
Otherwise will keep a dry forecast in place. 850-700 mb temperatures will
continue to rise with afternoon readings in the middle to upper 80s over
northestern Colorado.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 253 am MDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Models have the upper ridge axis over Colorado and it moves
slowly eastward through the periods. The ridge axis is over the
County Warning Area by Thursday. The flow aloft is northwesterly Wednesday into
Thursday before becoming zonal by Thursday afternoon. The flow
aloft is west-southwesterly by Friday morning at 12z. The synoptic
scale energy is weak downward in nature Wednesday well into
Thursday...before becoming weak upward Thursday night. The low
level winds are fairly normal on Wednesday. On Thursday...fairly
strong southerlies are prognosticated for all the County Warning Area. For moisture...all
the models show it to be relatively dry Wednesday through Thursday
night. Boundary layer dew points are mainly in the 40s f...with
some higher values over the eastern plains through the period. The
precipitable water values are in the 0.50 to 0.90 inch range west
to east through the four periods. There is some cape over the County Warning Area
late day Wednesday...pretty low values however except the far
eastern border...where the GFS has some higher numbers. There is
very little cape anywhere over the County Warning Area late day Thursday. There is
a tad of measurable rainfall prognosticated for Wednesday afternoon...
mainly over the southwestern County Warning Area...otherwise things are dry
through the periods. Will go with very limited probability of precipitation and then only
over the high County for late day Wednesday and late day Thursday.
For temperatures...readings will be 1-3 c warmer on Wednesday
compared to this afternoon's temperatures. Thursday's highs may be
0-1 c warmer than wednesday's. For the later days...Friday through
Monday...a weak upper level low...the remains of Odile is prognosticated
to be over southeastern Colorado at 00z Friday afternoon. There is
a weak upper trough to push across Colorado Friday night with a
cold front and upslope for the plains and foothills Saturday
morning into the evening. After that there is more upper ridging
and weak westerly flow aloft through Monday. Moisture is better
for the four days of the extended period.


Aviation...(for the tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 253 am MDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

VFR for today through tonight. Drainage winds will continue early this
morning and then become light northerly by 17z and then more east-northeast by 20z.
Winds will become drainage again by middle to late evening.


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...rpk
long term...rjk

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