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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
1059 am MST Monday Feb 8 2016

issued at 1044 am MST Monday Feb 8 2016

Satellite pictures are showing some middle an upper level cloudiness
moving to the south over the County Warning Area in the northerly flow aloft.
There is no precipitation occurring over the County Warning Area right now
according to radars...observations and cameras. The wind field
across the plains is quite more relaxed than yesterday at this
time. There are some northwesterlies out over the far east and
northern border but speeds are under 30 miles per hour. Will make a few
Picayune gfe grid changes this update.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 256 am MST Monday Feb 8 2016

A 125 knots jet anchored between an upper ridge over the western
states and an upper low over the Great Lakes will push east into
the Great Plains today...decreasing the north-northwesterly flow
aloft over the state. Slight anticyclonic flow at the surface has
kept in some clouds over the Front Range overnight...expect this
to dissipate by sunrise. Just enough moisture in the northwest
flow has brought a few areas of light snow over The Divide...have
kept a slight chance through the day. Accumulations will be
little to none. Warm advection with slight downsloping is expected
today to bring warmer temperatures today across the area with the
warmest areas found over the foothills and metropolitan areas. Confidence
on temperatures around the Denver area are slightly low. Depending
on the wind direction...and if the westerly downsloping winds push
as far east as the could stay cooler. Forecast
soundings show highs for denver's international Airport to remain
in the middle to upper 30s. Have shaved off a couple degrees off the
forecast high...expect low 40s. Northwest winds will again be
gusty especially over the northern state border and across the
northeast well as over the Front Range
mountains...foothills and into South Park. Gusts to 60 miles per hour will
be possible in the higher terrain and into South
Park....especially along and west of Highway 285.

Skies will be clearing tonight...though it will be a warmer night
under the warm advection and breezy northwest wind pattern.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 256 am MST Monday Feb 8 2016

A high amplitude ridge centered over the western U.S. Will bring
dry and warmer weather to the forecast area for the rest of the
week. There is still moderate northwest flow aloft through expect breezy conditions at times mainly over the
far northeastern plains...Wyoming border area...and locations
in/right next to the Front Range mountains and foothills.
Temperatures will continue their warming trend through Wednesday
with further warm advection aloft...downslope flow...and plenty of
sunshine. Only locations that may not see much if any warmup would
be portions of the High Mountain valleys especially in Grand
County which may actually cool a bit with abundant snow cover and
clearing skies. Meanwhile...Denver metropolitan should see highs into the
60s by Wednesday...while even some of the typically colder low
lying areas on the plains reach the upper 40s/lower 50s with the
persistent downslope flow aiding the warmup.

There is potential for a couple backdoor cold fronts by Thursday
and have maintained a slightly more conservative
temperature forecast for those periods into Saturday. The
earliest the next system would arrive may be next Sunday based on
the more progressive European model (ecmwf). Will keep the low probability of precipitation in the
mountains next Sunday but dry and mild conditions holding on the
plains for now.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1044 am MST Monday Feb 8 2016

Weak east-southeasterly winds are over dia right now. Went with
northwesterlies under 10 knots by 20z this afternoon. Not
completely certain...but they may stay southeasterly all
afternoon...will keep monitoring. Normal drainage patterns will
kick in this evening by 02z. There will be no ceiling issues.


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...kriederman
long term...barjenbruch

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