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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
1103 am MDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

Update...
issued at 1037 am MDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

Radars are showing a few light showers over the County Warning Area right
now...with very minimal coverage. There area few more showers
upstream in western Colorado right now. The latest models do show
some cape around the County Warning Area this a afternoon and evening...but
nothing significant. There are downsloping northwesterly winds
over most of the plains right with dew points in the middle 40s to
lower 50s f. May lower probability of precipitation a bit over the plains...as latest
cross sections show a pretty decent middle level cap in place.
$$

Short term...(today through tonight )
issued at 324 am MDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

Radar shows an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms pushing
northeast across central and western Colorado early this morning.
They area moving east/northeast and will continue to spread across
the forecast area this morning. Still some question as to whether
or not these spill onto the plains but there is at least weak synoptic
scale lift ahead of the trough axis to aid that cause. The bulk
of this forcing will shift east of the forecast area for the
afternoon hours...so redevelopment of convection will have to rely
on daytime heating and middle level cooling associated with upper
trough. As a result...highest coverage of showers/storms this
afternoon should occur where cap will be weakest in/near the
higher terrain and in areas that see more sunshine. Storm
intensity will be limited by convective available potential energy less than 500 j/kg so no
severe storms anticipated today.

Temperatures will 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday with the
cooling aloft and increase of clouds/convection.

For tonight...convection is expected to decrease rather quickly
with the loss of daytime heating and building subsidence.
Clearing skies should allow for decent radiational cooling and low
temperatures in the 50s on the plains and 30s/40s mountains.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 324 am MDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

The ridge will be over Arizona/new mx on Friday with a weak northerly
flow aloft over Colorado. Not much in the way of quantitative precipitation forecast generated in
the models...but will keep a slight chance over the mountains in the
aftn/evng. Over the weekend...the ridge will build with the axis
shifting more to the east of the state with a weak
south/southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will climb back into
the lower 90s for the weekend. The models try to push some
subtropical moisture into the state by early next week. Will go with
chance probability of precipitation in the mountains with slight chance of late day thunderstorms
over the northeast plains. With a little more cloud cover over the
state...temperatures may get offset by a degree or two next
week.

&&

Aviation...(for the tafs through 18z Friday morning)
issued at 1037 am MDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

Weak north to northwesterly winds are expected at dia this
afternoon...then drainage patterns tonight. May drop tempo group
in taf because convection by to quite limited. No ceiling issues

&&

Bou watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Update...rjk
short term...barjenbruch
long term...Cooper
aviation...rjk

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