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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
1101 am MDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

issued at 1022 am MDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

Water vapor pictures show a decent Plum of middle an upper level
moisture over the County Warning Area right now. Surface dew points are in the
middle 40s to middle 50s f right now. The convective cloudiness is just
starting to develop over the mountains and foothills. Won't change


Short term...(today through tonight )
issued at 330 am MDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

The broad high pressure aloft over the region will gradually get
suppressed southward a bit over the next 24 hours. This is the
result of a strong upper low over Pacific northwest which will
move across northern rockies. This will shift the flow aloft more
westerly by later today and bring in higher moisture levels across
much of Colorado. Precipitable water values expected to rise to
just under an inch over the Front Range by later this afternoon.
End result will be higher coverage of storms today across the
mountains and plains. The surface trough will shift east over the
plains as stronger west winds mix down. This will lower moisture
in the low levels with inverted v type soundings. Showers will
produce gusty winds and brief rain. Surface based convective available potential energy mainly
less than 1000j/kg over the Front Range but may end up being
higher over the far eastern plains with stronger storms.

Model consensus if for storms to quickly spread east over the
plains this afternoon then diminishing from west to east over the
evening hours. Only some minor changes needed to upcoming forecast

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 330 am MDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

Flow aloft on Friday will turn more westerly as the upper level
ridge elongates over the southern u... closed low currently
over the Pacific northwest moves east through southern
Saskatchewan. As a result...the middle level moisture plume will also
elongate east-west but remain across the forecast area. This will
keep afternoon/evening showers and storms in the forecast...with
the highest coverage over the mountains and lower coverage on the
plains where low level moisture is lacking. Temperatures will
remain very warm with highs pushing into the middle 90s across the

By Saturday...a cold front is still on track to push into the area
resulting in a couple degrees cooling. At the same will
also bring in lower Theta-E air and the airmass will likely
remain capped over the lower elevations due to the slightly cooler
boundary layer. Mountains should still see another round of
afternoon/evening storms...with perhaps a few spilling out toward
the Palmer Divide/southern metropolitan area toward evening where cap
will be weaker.

On Sunday...cooling trend will continue with persistent easterly
flow. This will likely keep most of the plains too stable to
support storms...but continued moistening should help offset
stabilization. With some q-g vertical motion indicated and
northwest flow aloft...cant rule out a few showers/storms
pushing onto the nearby adjacent plains late in the afternoon or

Monday into Tuesday should feature a better chance of showers and
storms across the entire forecast area. Low level flow turns more
southeasterly and Theta-E ridge is suggested to build across the
Front Range and nearby adjacent plains. Meanwhile...we stay in
northwest flow aloft which gives potential for passing stronger
short waves and increasing shear. The combination could lead to
storms with locally heavy rainfall and even a few severe storms.
Temperatures will average a few degrees below normal across the
plains...with near normal readings in the high country.

Wednesday should remain cooler than normal with continued
northwest flow aloft and cool surface high pressure locked in
across the Central Plains states. There will still be a low
chance of showers and storms in this pattern.


Aviation...(for the tafs through 18z Friday morning)
issued at 1022 am MDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

There should be no ceiling issues...even with the possible
convection. Winds will be fairly light except if storms are near.
They may even get northeasterly but likely not above 8 knots.


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...entrekin
long term...barjenbruch

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