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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
223 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2015

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 147 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2015

Stable layer currently helping to keep storms at Bay this
afternoon. Some development over the higher terrain and areas
south of I-70 is still possible into the early evening hours.
Areal coverage will be isolated with main threats being moderate
to heavy rain and gusty winds. Included a slight chance of
precipitation over the lower foothills and east into Denver due
to model soundings showing the cap dissipating throughout the
afternoon and early evening. This could lead to some light rain showers
developing into the evening hours but once again coverage will be
isolated with some brief rain and gusty winds. Skies will become
partly cloudy overnight with lows in the 60s for the plains and
40s for the mountains.

Sunday will see the upper level ridge still in place over the
southern Continental U.S. With a disturbance moving into Utah. This will
allow for some additional subtropical moisture to move into Arizona and
Colorado. Thunderstorm coverage will increase over the mountains by
tomorrow afternoon with a slight chance over the plains closest to
the foothills. There is less of a cap tomorrow with weak
subsidence transitioning out as well as increased moisture. This
will help to extend the coverage tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures
will still be around normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s over the plains and 60s to 70s for the mountains.

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 147 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2015

Sunday night...the upper level trough will make its way into
western Colorado. The models continue to show an increase in subtropical
moisture over the high country...enough to go with likely probability of precipitation
overnight. The highest probability of precipitation will be in this area. Middle level
subsidence associated with the upper level ridge should keep the
northeast plains of Colorado...with just isolated probability of precipitation in and near the
foothills and Palmer Divide. Monday into Monday night...the upper
trough will shift the ridge axis eastward as it slowly makes its
way eastward along the northern border. This will allow for the
chance of thunderstorms to encompass the entire County Warning Area in the afternoon
and overnight...with the highest probability of precipitation over the northern half of
the forecast area. More cloud cover will allow for cooler
temperatures as well Monday afternoon. Tuesday and Tuesday
night...the trough will shift to the northeast and east with the
ridge reestablishing itself over the Desert Southwest. A drier
northwesterly flow aloft will be over Colorado. The coverage of
thunderstorms will be isolated to widely scattered...with the best
coverage in the mountains and far northeast plains. The ridge will
flatten a bit in the middle of the week as another system passes
across Wyoming on Thursday. Not much moisture with this system so
if storms develop overall coverage will be low. A broad but flat
upper ridge is prognosticated for late in the week. Some moisture...but
overall probability of precipitation will be temperatures slightly above seasonal normals.
There may be a bit more moisture to work with by the weekend as
the flow aloft becomes southwesterly and the ridge axis shifts to
the east of Colorado.

Aviation...(for the tafs through 00z Sunday late afternoon)
issued at 147 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2015

Conditions will remain VFR through the next 24 hours at apa...den
and bjc. There is a slight chance of some developing showers to
the south and east of the terminal so included vcsh with light
gusting later this afternoon into the early evening. Do not expect
restrictions to ceilings or visibility with the showers. Winds
will light and variable then transition around to drainage by 04z
before going north by tomorrow morning.


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Bowen
long term...Cooper

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