Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
215 am MST Sat Feb 6 2016

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 215 am MST Sat Feb 6 2016

A short wave upper ridge will pass over the state during the day
today bringing warmer temperatures and mostly clear skies. With
the remaining snow the warming even though 700 mb
temperatures increase by almost 10 degrees c over yesterday.
Plains should still see readings in the 40s if not 50s near the
foothills. A deepening surface trough over the eastern plains
will increase winds over the high terrain...with gusts to 50 miles per hour
over the northern mountains and foothills. A small amount of
moisture in the northwest flow aloft may bring isolated areas of
light snow to the northern mountains as well in the
afternoon...with little to now accumulation.

The next trough pushes down over the northern Great Plains with a
130 knots jet dropping on the backside along the northern rockies.
This jet will push over northeastern Colorado tonight increasing
winds over the high terrain with gusts of 65 to 70 miles per hour
possible...especially near the Wyoming border. Any light snowfall
over the northern mountains will be decreasing...with again little
to no accumulation expected. Minimum temperatures will be
moderated overnight due to the winds. Readings should be all above
zero in the mountains...and in the 20s to near 30 over the plains.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 215 am MST Sat Feb 6 2016

Brisk northwest flow aloft will be over northern Colorado on sun into Sun night.
Cross-sections show rather minimal moisture however there still
could be a slight chance of light snow over the mountains winds will be
strong at times as component along speeds are in the 45-50 knots range Sun
morning. Appears lack of mountain wave will keep the highest winds
mainly above 9000 feet. At lower elevations gusty winds will also
occur over portions of the plains especially near the Wyoming-NE border
area. Wind gusts up to 50 miles per hour will certainly be possible from late
morning through the afternoon hours. As for highs readings will be
mainly in the middle 30s to around 40 over northestern Colorado.

On Monday northwest flow aloft will begin to weaken as a strong trough
develops over the eastern US. Cross-sections show very little moisture
in the flow so will maintain a dry forecast. Winds will still be gusty
at times over the higher terrain and across portions of the plains
near the Wyoming-NE border area however speeds will not be as strong as
Sunday. As for highs 850-700 mb temperatures rise from 5 to 6 degrees c on
Monday however lingering snow cover may keep readings in the upper 30s
to lower 40s in most places over northestern Colorado except closer to the
foothills where highs could reach the middle to upper 40s.

By Tuesday the flow aloft will still be northwesterly and then become more west-northwest on
Wednesday. Once again outside of some higher level moisture affecting the
area it looks dry both days. 850-700 mb temperatures rise another 4-5
degrees c on Tuesday and then a few more degrees on Wednesday. Lingering snow
cover over the plains will have some affect on highs both days but
will raise them into the lower to middle 50s by Wednesday with near 60
possible around Denver.

For Thursday and Friday west-northwest flow aloft will remain over the area with only
some higher level moisture moving across. Thus outside of some
clouds it will be dry both days. A weak cool fnt may affect northestern Colorado
on Thursday with highs slighly lower in the upper 40s to middle 50s.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 215 am MST Sat Feb 6 2016

VFR through the period...south/southwesterly winds will turn more
westerly this afternoon before returning to S/SW. Expect gusty
westerly winds to 20 kts at kbjc.


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...kriederman
long term...rpk

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations