Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
707 PM MDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

issued at 705 PM MDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

Need to up probability of precipitation over the most of plains as per real data. There is
a bit of lightning here and there. Most of the rain is light to
moderate. Fairly decent northeasterly boundary layer winds are
covering most of the plains into the lower foothills right now.
Water vapor pictures are showing the upper trough axis over the
western Colorado border right now. There is some light snow
around The Divide. The back edge of the cloudiness is still over
western Colorado. Will make appropriate adjustments.


Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 347 PM MDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

Upper trough currently moving into central Colorado. Flow aloft
still southwest across eastern Colorado per Platteville profiler.
Middle and high level moisture over much of the mountains at this
time...beginning to spread onto the plains. Scattered showers
continuing across the high country...confined mainly to the higher
elevations. Across plains...winds have been the big headache in
the Denver area. Northerly winds across far eastern plains helped
to push an easterly boundary as far west as Denver. Some showers
had developed along the boundary in Weld and Morgan counties
extending into eastern Adams County just east of dia. A bit
lightning ongoing over northeast Weld and Morgan counties into
eastern Adams County. Some showers developing across the Palmer
Divide into Washington County. The trough will be moving east
across the plains through the evening....exiting the state after
midnight. Flow aloft to become northwest behind the trough with
drier and subsident air spreading into the region by midnight.
Scattered showers across the mountains may become a bit more
widespread early this evening...before decreasing. Overall
coverage still limited. There may be some snow above 10000
feet...but any accumulation will be light. Across the
plains...shower activity to begin pushing to the east and
northeast during the evening as the trough moves over the area.
Will keep a slight chance along the urban corridor early in the
evening in case any convection occurs along outflow boundaries.
Will keep the thunderstorms confined the eastern plains east of
Denver and along the Palmer Divide south of Denver into Lincoln
County as. Latest models indicate boundary layer cape of around
100-200 j/kg in this region with minimal cin. Low levels still
fairly most of the showers and storms to be mainly high
based producing gusty winds but meager rainfall. Some storms along
boundaries could produce brief moderate rainfall and perhaps some
small hail. Winds to be a bit tricky across plains this evening...
but looks like winds will become northerly most locations...before
going northwest around midnight. Overnight...trough will be east
of the area with clearing skies and decreasing winds. Any
lingering showers or storms should be done at that time. On
Thursday...upper ridge builds over the Great Basin with northwest
flow aloft across Colorado. Airmass to be dry and slightly cooler.
Winds to be a bit gusty across the ridges and along the Wyoming
and Nebraska borders during the afternoon. Temperatures look to
warm into the 60s across the plains.


Aviation...(for the tafs through 06z Thursday evening)
issued at 705 PM MDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

Strong northeasterlies have continued at the Airport along with a
broad area of mostly light rain. There will be some lighting
around for a couple of hours anyway. As the rain continues
becoming more stratiform in nature...ceilings will likely lower.
They could get down to 020 broken through 03z. Will amend


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for coz247.



short term...d-l
long term...kriederman