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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
743 PM MDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

issued at 735 PM MDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

Several boundaries are affecting northestern Colorado however no activity has
been occurring with these so thunderstorm threat looks like it has ended.


Short term...(this afternoon through wednesday)
issued at 318 PM MDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

Enough drying behind the trough moving into Kansas and Nebraska to
keep convection weak and shallow. Only place that needs low probability of precipitation
is the northeast corner which has not dried as much yet. There are
some weak showers in the Nebraska Panhandle that may come across
the corner in the early evening. Otherwise the cloud cover should
dissipate fairly quickly this evening. I dropped lows slightly due
to the clearing and drier air.

On Wednesday conditions will not be much different from
today...except about 5 degrees warmer. Maybe warm enough to probability of precipitation
a couple late day showers/storms over the Front Range...but not
much to work with.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 318 PM MDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

For Wednesday night through Thursday the upper level ridge is over
the desert SW region continuing to help cut off the supply of
subtropical moisture. There is zonal flow aloft that will help to
keep a drier and warmer pattern over NE Colorado. A weak shortwave
will be exiting the state late Wednesday so have maintained a
slight chance of late evening storms in the forecast but
conditions will be much drier for Thursday. Temperatures will be
warmer than normal on Thursday with highs reaching into the lower
90s for the plains.

Friday will see the transition back into a more moist pattern with
the shifting of the upper level ridge back to the southeast. This will
allow a steady stream of subtropical moisture to flow around the
ridge and into Colorado. Friday will still be fairly stable
through most of the day but there is a slight chance of storms
over the higher terrain as well as NE Colorado with a weak
shortwave embedded in the southeast flow. Main threats will be gusty
winds with an inverted v sounding all the way to 500 mb along with
lightning and rain.

For the weekend moisture will continue to increase with a slight
chance of afternoon storms...mainly over the higher terrain on
Saturday and Sunday. Conditions will become unstable enough on the
plains for some storms to move east by Saturday evening so have
maintained a slight chance into Sunday. Temperatures for Friday
will be the warmest of the week with highs reaching into the middle
90s but after the cold front cooling will take place that will
help to bring temperatures down into the middle to upper 80s for
Saturday and Sunday.

The beginning of next week will see the moist pattern dominate
with a slight chance of convection for Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs in the middle to
upper 80s to start your week.


Aviation...(for the tafs through 06z Wednesday evening)
issued at 735 PM MDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

Another boundary is approaching dia from the northeast so should see a
switch to a more east-northeast component by 830 PM. Latest data keeps winds
more Ely from 03z through 06z and then southerly by 09z. Some stratus will
develop over the plains late tonight and may get close to dia by 12z
so this will be something to watch overnight


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...gimmestad
long term...Bowen

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