Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
359 am MST Sat Nov 28 2015

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 355 am MST Sat Nov 28 2015

An upper low continues to spin over Utah as its stretched
northeast into Wyoming and South Dakota. This will keep southwesterly
flow aloft over the state through tonight. Upward qg vertical
velocity across northeastern Colorado will weaken and quickly move
northeast into the Dakotas today as subsident downward qg motion
pushes into the state. Snow over the mountains will be decreasing
through the day and evening...with a couple inches of additional
dry snow expected. Light snow over the plains have decreased
overnight to only a few areas reporting it still. The best chance
for snow over the plains today will be over the northeastern
plains...although forecast soundings are showing the airmass
warming. What moisture is left is warming above the favored dendritic
growth region...therefore the plains may start to see some
freezing drizzle mixing back in with the snow. Upslope flow will
decrease today...which may allow for some of the clouds to break
up across the urban corridor later today or tonight. Temperatures
today will continue a slow warming trend...with readings in the
middle 20s. Temperatures tonight will be similar to last night's the single digits to teens which is below normal for
this time of year.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 355 am MST Sat Nov 28 2015

An elongated upper level low will extend from Wyoming into Utah
Sunday morning with the southern portion moving across the area Sun
night. By Monday morning there will be a closed upper level low over
northestern Colorado which will then move eastward into eastern Nebraska by Monday

Qg fields show favorable ascent developing by early Sunday evening
which will continue overnight before moving eastward on Monday. Lapse
rates aren't quite as unstable from what were forecasted 24 hours ago
however cross-sections show decent moisture depth with favorable low
level upslope albeit weak. Overall should see a gradual increase in
snow across the area by early Sunday evening which will continue
over the northestern plains into Monday morning. If everything comes
together right there will be some potential for heavier snow over
northestern Colorado Sunday night with advisory amounts certainly possible in
some places.

On Monday the snow should gradually end across the plains by midday
however activity will linger in the mountains through the afternoon due to
favorable orographics as the middle level flow becomes more west-northwest. As for
temperatures looks like there will be quite a bit of low level cloud cover
through Sun afternoon so highs over the plains will stay in the 25 to 30
degree range. For Monday depending on snow cover highs once again
could stay in the 25 to 30 degree range over the plains as 850-700
mb temperatures change little from sun.

For Monday night the flow aloft will be northwesterly with some lingering
moisture in the mountains so still will see some light snow due to
favorable orographics. Over northestern Colorado it will be dry. By Tuesday the
flow aloft will become more north-northwest with little moisture shown by
cross- sections. Thus will not mention any precipitation. As for highs
850-700 mb temperatures begin to moderate so will have readings in the
lower to middle 40s over northestern Colorado.

For Wednesday into Thursday an upper level ridge will begin to build into the
area with dry conditions expected both days. Highs will be near
seasonal levels. On Friday the upper level ridge will still be over
the area with southwesterly flow aloft. Once again it looks dry with highs
remaining around seasonal levels.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 355 am MST Sat Nov 28 2015

MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected through the morning and possibly early
afternoon before improving and possibly breaking up. Light and
variable winds are expected for most of the day around the main
area airports as southeast winds move into the plains and cyclone
around the Denver area. A few flurries are still possible early
this morning...but no accumulation expected


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...kriederman
long term...rpk

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations