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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
259 PM MST Sat Nov 28 2015

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 1244 PM MST Sat Nov 28 2015

The snow has mostly ended over the County Warning Area at this time. Can't find
one observations reported snow. Radar shows very little as well.
Wind directions are all over the place and speeds are very light.
Models keep strong southwesterly flow aloft tonight and Sunday.
There is qg upward vertical velocity for the County Warning Area overnight and
Sunday...getting fairly strong by Sunday afternoon. The boundary
layer winds are weak and variable tonight and Sunday....but by
afternoon they go east-northeasterly but stay below 10 knots. Fro
moisture...there is some around...especially the lower level
over the east and foothills. Overnight. Moisture increases
somewhat in the mountains. Moisture increases in earnest through
the afternoon Sunday. For probability of precipitation will keep them below 10%s for the
plains and foothills overnight into Sunday morning. Will
increase them through afternoon Sunday. Will keep "chance"s going
in the mountains overnight and Sunday...with an afternoon
increase again. For temperatures...sunday's highs are 1-3 c
warmer than this afternoon's.

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 145 PM MST Sat Nov 28 2015

Although there are rather significant discrepancies amongst the
models beginning Sunday evening regarding the position of the
upper low they all have decent qg ascent over our area at that
time and overnight. This justifies the high probability of precipitation that we have in
the going forecast. Snow should be underway at least in the
mountains by 00z...spreading onto the plains by then or shortly
thereafter. Not anticipating a huge amount of snow in any location
at this point but we may need an advisory for the mountains
before all is said and done as there may be a brief time Sunday
evening where snowfall rates get pretty high due to the forecast
instability. This timing may not be ideal for Holiday travel

Strong qg subsidence spreads over the area during the day Monday
which will shut down the precipitation except in locales in the
mountains favored in northwest flow.

The upper low will gradually pull away from Colorado on Tuesday.
As it does...the flow pattern evolves into one that may support
an amplified mountain wave for a time late Monday night and early
Tuesday. The grids have some decent winds in the normally windy
areas to account for this. Aside from that Tuesday through Friday
look to be dry with more seasonal temperatures.

Models are hinting at another trough pushing into the central
rockies by Saturday and we have increasing probability of precipitation in the grids to
account for this.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1244 PM MST Sat Nov 28 2015

Winds will be weak overnight and Sunday...but perhaps there may be
some drainage at some Point. May need to keep some ceilings in at
or below broken-ovc025 into Sunday.


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...none.



Short term...rjk

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