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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
1029 am MDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

Update...
issued at 1023 am MDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

Forecast on track as weak front pushed across the forecast area
this morning. This is acting to keep temperatures down a bit...so most of
the plains should see a couple degrees cooling from the past
couple days. Low level moisture has increased behind the front but
will be hard to break through the cap with slightly cooler mixed
layer temperatures. Best chance would be over the elevated terrain. Cant
rule out an isolated storm/outflow boundary pushing east into the
Palmer Divide and Wyoming border area of the plains toward
evening.

&&

Short term...(today through tonight )
issued at 315 am MDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

Another hot day expected across northeast Colorado with only some
subtle changes expected today. Water vapor imagery showing the
moisture plume getting shunted slowly south over last 6 hours and
this expected to shift a bit more south by afternoon. This will
keep any isolated shower activity confined to higher terrain and
Palmer Divide. Overall precipitable water levels are slightly
lower than yesterday at this time. There is a weak cold front
which will drop down from Wyoming early this morning which will
shift winds to north and northeast and slightly higher low level
moisture. Initial frontal boundary already moving into far
northern Weld County with weak pressure rise noted across south
central Wyoming. However very little cooling with this front and
expect temperatures very similar to yesterday. Models show some
increase in low level moisture later tonight on the plains and
will adjust some cloud cover for this.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 129 am MDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

The upper level high will continue over Colorado on Wednesday and then
get suppressed southward on Thursday. There will be some influx of
monsoon moisture both days with the European model (ecmwf) showing a couple of
weak disturbances embedded in the flow. Overall will keep a chance of
thunderstorms in the mountains both days with a slight chance elsewhere. As for
highs 850-700 mb temperatures change little either day so expect temperatures in
the 90s over northestern Colorado.

By Friday the center of the upper level high will be from southern Colorado
into northern New Mexico with westerly flow over northern Colorado. Once again there
could be some monsoon moisture affecting the area so will keep a
slight chance of thunderstorms. A weak fnt may move into northestern Colorado on Friday but for
now it still looks like highs will reach at least the lower to middle
90s once again over northestern Colorado.

For the weekend the upper level high will may retrograde a bit
further west with the flow aloft becoming more west-northwest. Both the European model (ecmwf)
and GFS show a weak fnt affecting the plains on Sat and then a
somewhat stronger one on sun. The European model (ecmwf) keeps some monsoon moisture
over the area both days while the GFS basically shifts it further
south. In addition the GFS shows drier air spreading across northestern
Colorado in the lower levels both days while the European model (ecmwf) keeps the low level
airmass more moist. At this point will just keep slight chance of
thunderstorms in the forecast both days. As for highs readings still look to
be in the lower to middle 90s on Sat over northestern Colorado but may drop back
to more seasonal levels by sun.

By Monday the flow aloft will be more northwesterly as the upper level high is
supposed to be over Utah and western Colorado. Over northestern Colorado the low level
flow is southeasterly surface high pressure resides over the central US. If this
pans out temperatures actually may be a few degrees below normal on Monday
over northestern Colorado with a chance of thunderstorms.

&&

Aviation...(for the tafs through 18z Wednesday morning)
issued at 1023 am MDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

Northeast winds behind the front will shift more easterly around
10-15 knots 18z-22z...then southeasterly 22z-03z. Airmass is more
stable behind front...so just a very slight risk of a thunderstorm
pushing off the foothills/Palmer Divide 23z-03z. By 10z-12z early
Wednesday morning...some stratus may develop on the plains but
this is expected to stay east and northeast of the Front Range
airports.

&&

Hydrology...
issued at 315 am MDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

Only isolated showers and thunderstorms in the mountains and
higher terrain today with any amounts under a quarter of an inch. There
will be a chance of afternoon thunderstorms in the mountains both Wednesday
and Thursday with a slight chance elsewhere. Overall rainfall amounts
will generally be light although a few spots could receive up to a
half inch.

&&

Bou watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Update...barjenbruch
short term...entrekin
long term...rpk
aviation...barjenbruch
hydrology...entrekin/rpk

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