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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
200 PM MDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 200 PM MDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Upper trough axis is still generally to the west of the County Warning Area at
this hour with qg ascent downstream over our area. The trough is
forecast to slowly push to the northeast overnight with subsidence
following in its wake. The northeast tier of counties will likely
not see the trough axis pass by until Tuesday afternoon. Extensive
cloud cover has held back the convective component of things thus
far so have lowered the going probability of precipitation a bit to cover the overnight

Tuesday will see drying and subsiding air over most of the County Warning Area
excluding the far northeast corner so little in the way of
probability of precipitation/quantitative precipitation forecast for Tuesday afternoon aside from the corner. With more
sunshine high temperatures should exceed those of today by a few
degrees. Also expecting more wind tomorrow...especially in the
high country as moderate west to northwest flow aloft develops
over Colorado.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 1211 PM MDT Monday Aug 3 2015

For Tuesday night into Wednesday the front will have crossed the
region with subsidence behind it. There is still a slight chance
of storms possible over the far NE corner through the evening with
light to moderate rain and winds possible but otherwise conditions
will clear out.

For Wednesday and Thursday the upper level ridge will start to
shift westward cutting off the supply of monsoon moisture into the
region. This will bring flow more zonal from the west and dry out
NE Colorado. Wednesday afternoon could see some isolated storms in
the higher terrain with lingering low level moisture and heating.
With strong boundary layer westerly flow some storms could move over
the plains so kept a slight chance for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitable water
values will be low with the lack of moisture but dcapes are high
with an inverted v sounding so at this point main threats look to
be brief rain and gusty downburst winds. Conditions will continue
to dry out on Thursday with mostly to partly cloudy skies
expected. Temperatures for both Wednesday and Thursday will be
above normal with highs in the lower 90s.

Friday will be a transition day as a deep low pressure system
over California will start to move east-northeast helping to push the ridge back to
the west over Texas by Friday evening. This will allow for the
moisture to return to the state from the south-southwest increasing convection
chances over the mountains and NE plains. Will maintain a slight
chance for now with main threats still being light to moderate
rain and strong winds.

The weekend will see the return of moisture as the upper level
ridge places itself back over Texas re-inviting the typical monsoon
pattern back to the region. Precipitable water values will be back close to an
inch by Saturday afternoon with decent cape and shear values.
Thunderstorms for Saturday will be possible during the afternoon
and evening over NE Colorado with heavy rain...winds and possible
small hail. Highs for Saturday will be hovering around normal with
temperatures in the middle to upper 80s. For Sunday and Monday both models
show some drying out of moisture as it moves to the east but will
keep a slight chance of precipitation in the forecast as conditions may
change over the next few model runs.


Aviation...(for the tafs through 00z Tuesday late afternoon)
issued at 200 PM MDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Scattered convective activity is still expected to threaten the
terminals through about mid-evening. Gusty winds and brief
moderate rains will be the main impacts. Southeasterly winds late
this afternoon and early evening should transition to drainage
overnight with westerlies to northwesterlies in the 10 to 20 knot
range by afternoon Tuesday.


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...none.



long term...Bowen

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