Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
747 PM MDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Update...
issued at 746 PM MDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Thunderstorms had ended over the entire County Warning Area so will drop probability of precipitation in most
areas for the rest of the night.

&&

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 142 PM MDT Friday Jul 31 2015

With increased moisture over the higher foothills storms will
continue to form and produce brief moderate to heavy rain and
lighting into the evening hours. Boundary layer flow is slower so
some storms still have the potential to make it off the
hills...especially south of I-70 but the plains should stay mostly
dry this evening. Lows will be back into the lower 60s under
partly cloudy skies overnight.

For Saturday the upper level ridge will move south and east
increasing moisture over the southern and central portions of the
state. Upper air soundings are showing a capped atmosphere at 500 mb that
will help to keep storms off the plains combined with subsidence
at 700mb. Convection will mainly be over the higher terrain and
south of I-70 by tomorrow afternoon. Highs will return to the
lower 90s for the plains and upper 60s for the mountains.

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 142 PM MDT Friday Jul 31 2015

The next week will feature an upper ridge that will slide eastward
beginning Sunday in response to a trough moving across southern
Canada. At the surface high pressure will be draped across the
state Sunday...and a Lee trough will develop Monday and broaden/
intensify on Wednesday. The surface trough will sweep eastward
with the trough on Thursday and high pressure is expected to build
across the area behind a cold front. The warmest day is expected
to be Wednesday ahead of the cold front. Moisture will be somewhat
limited through the week. The best chance of precipitation looks
to be Monday...the rest of the week only isolated thunderstorms
are expected on the plains...while the mountains have scattered
thunderstorms especially early in the week.

&&

Aviation...(for the tafs through 06z Saturday evening)
issued at 746 PM MDT Friday Jul 31 2015

One weak boundary moved across and switched the winds to southerly.
Overall winds overnight should stay S/south-southwest based on latest data.

&&

Bou watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Update...rpk
short term...Bowen
long term...rtg
aviation...rpk

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations