Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
328 am MDT Sat Aug 1 2015
Short term...today through Sunday...convection hasn/T been
strong enough to cause thunderstorms over our region for now.
Only seeing thunderstorms over The Four Corners region and off the
Oregon coast. For today...will see a minor warming from yesterday
as the high increases slightly in strength...but will drop a few
degrees Sunday as monsoon moisture and cloud coverage increase.
Expecting a chance of thunderstorms over most high elevation areas
by Sunday afternoon through evening. Gusty winds associated with
thunderstorms are also expected.
Long term...Sunday night through Saturday...expect a slowly
decaying upper level ridge over southeast Oregon and SW Idaho with an
impulse lifting NE over SW Idaho Sunday night. It is followed by
slowly lowering heights as an upper low center over Southeast Alaska today
wobbles across SW Canada finally late on Thursday. Friday and
Saturday look unsettled with split flow over the west. Moisture
and cloudiness Sunday night will keep lows up and the ridge is
slower to exit so high temperatures Monday were increased as well.
Moisture and late day instability keep a threat of thunderstorms
over the area especially Monday and Tuesday as the upper ridge
breaks down and impulses provide lift in the west-southwest flow aloft.
Somewhat drier air and lower threat of storms moves in middle week in
both GFS/ec models. GFS/ec do split the upper flow over the
western U.S./B.C. Canada next weekend. Temperatures average about
10 degrees above normal through Monday...and around 5 degrees
above normal Tuesday through Saturday.
Aviation...VFR mostly clear over Idaho until 18z then VFR scattered-broken
bases at or above 12-15k feet mean sea level this afternoon and evening. Variable
winds 10kt or less up through 10k feet mean sea level.
After 06z Sunday outlook...VFR. Partly cloudy in the morning and
mostly cloudy after 18z Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms 18z Sunday
through 06z Monday.