Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
300 am MDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014
Short term...today through Thursday...a period of dry weather is
underway. The upper level trough over Idaho and the intermountain
region is on its way east...leaving dry subsiding air in its wake.
Our County Warning Area will be under cool northwest flow aloft today through
Thursday...but we can expect gradual warming to near normal by
Thursday afternoon as a warm upper level ridge builds over the coast
and edges inland. Skies will be mostly clear...except for areas of
middle level clouds over the central Idaho mountains today.
Long term...Thursday night through Tuesday...not much has changed
in the newest model runs. The models continue to show that an upper
level ridge will build into the western U.S. /Including southeast Oregon
and SW Idaho/ through early next week. This pattern will support dry
weather along with a slow warming trend through the end of the
week...with above normal temperatures persisting through Tuesday.
Aviation...VFR with scattered middle clouds today. Locally broken low VFR
clouds in the Idaho west central mountains until 18z. Isolated MVFR
fog possible in the northern valleys until 18z. Surface winds...
generally light northwest...except northwest 10-15 knots with gusts
to 20 knots from kmuo to ktwf/kjer. Winds aloft...north 10-20 knots
up through 10k feet mean sea level.
Boi watches/warnings/advisories... Idaho...none. Or...none.
long term and aviation....bw