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Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
331 am MDT sun Aug 2 2015

Short term...today through Monday...middle to high level clouds are
beginning to move in from the south and west as the monsoon
moisture circles around the ridge. Will begin to see isolated
thunderstorms over southern southeast Oregon...along the Nevada
border...and the Boise Mountains in the afternoon through
evening. Monsoon moisture will get a swift kick into our region
Monday as a well forecasted shortwave moves into the region Monday
for a chance of thunderstorms throughout the day over most of the
region. Sunday temperatures will be within a few degrees of record
highs as the ridge remains over the region. As the clouds move in
Sunday night behind a weakening ridge...minimum temperatures will
stay relatively warm. The shortwave will allow temperatures to
drop Monday to just below normal.

Long term...Monday night through Sunday...precipitation Monday
night and early Tuesday is slowest to exit in the GFS and cuts off
too quickly in the NAM...so a GFS/ec blend was preferred as the
shortwave lifts through SW Idaho Monday night. Lowered probability of precipitation Tuesday
across the snake plain as the British Columbia low is farther north.
That position allows a short wave upper ridge with transient
stability to cross the area Tuesday. By Wednesday the b.C. Upper low
looks to absorb energy from another low offshore...with the 00z ec
wetter or slower than the 00z GFS. So trended up on probability of precipitation late Wednesday.
Good agreement in GFS/ec with trough bringing a break in the weekend
heat with temperatures back to near normal through Wednesday. No changes to
the drier forecast with building heights and near normal temperatures
Thursday/Friday but did increase probability of precipitation for this coming weekend as a
cut off low slowly drifts toward the California coast...or maybe
inland...on Saturday.

&&

Aviation...VFR. Increasing clouds with isolated thunderstorms
developing after 18z. Surface winds generally SW-west 5-15 kts. Winds
aloft becoming east 5-15 kts up to 10k feet mean sea level. Gusts up to 40kt near
thunderstorms through 06z.

&&

Boi watches/warnings/advisories...
Idaho...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
idz400-401-423-426.
Or...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
orz636-637-646.

&&

$$

Weather.Gov/Boise

Short term...ab
long term....vm
aviation.....Vm

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