Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
900 am MDT Friday Jul 25 2014
Discussion...the brief cool period will end today with rapid
warming through the weekend as high pressure aloft builds nwwd from
the southern rockies. Clear skies through Saturday night. Monsoon
moisture will spread high clouds in from the south Sunday leading to
first chance of thunderstorm Sunday night or Monday. Latest GFS and
ecm hold the upper ridge axis stationary along the Continental
Divide all next week with our area under southwesterly flow aloft. Monsoon
moisture will remain within this flow for a slight chance of
thunderstorms each day and only slight day to day temperature
changes. No updates.
Aviation...VFR. Clear...except for smoke in vicinity of wildfires.
Westerly surface winds 5 to 15 knots. Winds aloft will be westerly
10 to 15 knots up through 10k feet mean sea level.
short term...today through Saturday...dry...stable...and
virtually cloud free. Lighter winds than Thursday. Warming
trend...as the ridge over the southwest U.S. Starts to expand
northward. Highs on Friday about 5-10 degrees warmer than
Thursday...and then another 5-10 degrees warmer on Saturday...
bringing almost all areas back above normal.
Long term...Saturday night through Thursday...upper level ridge of
high pressure over the western U.S. Will be the dominant weather
feature through the extended period. With the ridge over the region
monsoon moisture will move northward for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Thursday. High
temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
previous short term...tb
previous long term....ja