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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
306 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PAC NW THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OVERNIGHT IN SE OREGON...AND BY NOON IN
SW IDAHO. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS....WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM MDT...
5 PM PDT...FOR MALHEUR AND HARNEY COUNTIES IN SE OREGON. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY GUSTED TO 50 MPH AT THE AUTOMATED OBSERVING SITE NEAR
ROME OREGON. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY 10 TO 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN
HIGHS TODAY. THE LARGEST CHANGE WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WHERE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS OF 2 PM MDT. SUNDAY NIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. MONDAY...THE ONLY REMAINING MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS.
TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN HARNEY
COUNTY WHERE A NEW WARM UP WILL BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WARMING TREND IS 
EXPECTED TO END ON FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER AIR FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA 
ENTERS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS IS SUPPORTED 
BY ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT...A RELATIVELY HIGH MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY...AND A RUN TO RUN TREND TOWARD LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS
ON SATURDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CENTER OVER OUR
AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY...LEAVING SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO UNDER A
SOUTHWEST FLOW 0F WARM AIR ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OFFSHORE...PREPARING TO SWING
INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 15 DEGREES AND
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 
SURFACE WINDS 25-35 KTS LOCALLY GUSTING TO 50 KTS WILL DECREASE TO 
10-20 KTS AFTER 00Z. ELSEWHERE EAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10-20 KTS WILL 
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO 
MOUNTAINS WHERE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY 06Z WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN WITH  
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS INCLUDING KMYL. SNOW LEVELS WILL 
LOWER TO AROUND 5K FT MSL BY 12Z SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL 
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM THE WEST AFTER 12Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/DD
AVIATION.....JT

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