Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
227 PM MST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
Short term...tonight through Friday...
the upper low continues to move across northern Nevada this
afternoon. This is putting a deformation snow band across
southeast Oregon through Boise towards the Boise Mountains.
Models continue the trend of taking that band to the southeast
bringing more emphasis to the Magic Valley and southern Twin Falls
County this evening. Current forecast has about 4 to 6 inches
across that region...and lesser amounts towards Mountain Home. We
will continue the winter weather products through the overnight
hours across the Idaho zones. Snow should be tapering off across
the Oregon zones before nightfall. So will allow the Oregon
advisories/warnings expire on time. Winds of 25 to 35 miles per hour will
continue to be a problem through the evening hours then slowly
Light lingering snow showers will continue mainly across the Twin
Falls area Thursday as the upper low lingers in NE Nevada...but
the band pushes further south and east. Temperatures will be
about 10 to 15 degrees below normal across most location through
the weekend. Brisk north to northeast wind is expected across the
region bringing chilly wind chills to the region. A blocking high
in western Canada keeps the upper low stalled across Nevada into
Long term...Friday night through Wednesday...
cutoff low to the south of the area is expected to slowly drift
east over the weekend. Little to no impact is anticipated...but
cloud cover is likely and will be a factor for temperatures. For
Monday and beyond...models diverge quite remarkably...so
confidence is low in any major pattern changes. Temperatures will
remain below normal through the period.
snow with IFR/MVFR conditions continuing through the
period...mainly southeast of a line kbno-ksnt. Mountains obscured. Surface winds
increasing this afternoon...to northwest gusting to 30 kts...then
tapering down after 26/07z. Winds aloft near 10kft mean sea level...east-northeast 25-40
Idaho...Winter Storm Warning until 11 am MST Thursday idz016-030.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 am MST Thursday idz014-015-029.
Or...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon orz061.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/ this afternoon