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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
301 PM MST sun Feb 14 2016

Short term...tonight through Tuesday...moisture continues to move
across the region this afternoon...but showers have become less
numerous over the past few hours. Showers are still possible this
afternoon and evening north and east of a line from Burns to Rome
Oregon. By morning...the activity will be confined to the
mountains of Baker County and southwest Idaho...north of the Snake
River Valley. Northwest flow aloft will continue through Monday
night before a flattening ridge transitions US to zonal flow. This
will keep temperatures above normal Monday and Tuesday. With so much low
level moisture brought on by the precipitation...patchy fog is
possible tomorrow morning in most valley locations. However...
cloud cover will act to limit fog formation...and no dense fog is
forecast. By Tuesday morning...the best chance for fog will be in the
mountain-valleys of the west-central and Boise Mountains clouds will
decrease from southwest to northeast Monday through Monday
night...leaving a mostly sunny Tuesday for most areas. Winds Monday
afternoon in the upper Treasure valley from Mountain Home
eastward...and into the western Magic Valley...will blow 10-20 miles per hour
with gusts near 30 miles per hour.

Long term...Tuesday night through Sunday...a ridge of high
pressure will give way to increasing clouds Wednesday ahead of the
next system /temperatures are forecast to be 10-15 degrees above
normal Wed/...could see precipitation in southeast Oregon and the
west central and Boise Mountains as early as Wednesday afternoon.
Precipitation will quickly spread across the region Thursday with snow
levels dropping from about 7k feet mean sea level to about 5k feet mean sea level. Winds are
expected to increase as the trough axis passes through the region
Thursday afternoon through evening. Temperatures will drop to
about 5 degrees above normal Thursday and Friday. Not expecting
too long of a break between systems as models are aligned in
bringing another system through Friday/Saturday...though there are
still a few discrepancies in timing and coverage. The region will
dry out as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region
Sunday...with temperatures slowly creeping upwards.


Aviation...scattered MVFR/IFR rain..snow..and terrain
obscuration across Baker County Oregon and the central Idaho
mountains through Mon/12z...tapering off in the west central
mountains towards the late afternoon. South of those areas...low
VFR/MVFR ceilings and areas of mountain obscuration...improving
through the afternoon as precipitation coverage decreases. Cloud
cover should inhibit widespread fog formation tonight. Snow levels
are slowly rising to around 6.5-7k feet mean sea level tonight...closer to 8k
feet mean sea level south of the Snake River Plain. Surface winds...west to northwest
5-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts in the Magic Valley...and south
of the Snake River Plain /incl southeast Oregon/...gusts will persist in
the Magic Valley and south to the Nevada border through Monday. Winds
aloft through 10k feet mean sea level...northwest 40-50 kts...decreasing to
25-40 kts before Mon/06z.


Boi watches/warnings/advisories...




Short term...snow pellets
long term....ab/dd

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