Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
240 PM MDT Sat Mar 15 2014
Short term...warmer Sunday then much colder Monday after strong
cold front passes through in the pre-dawn hours Monday. Sunday
will be the warmest day so far this year with high pressure
aloft and falling pressure at the surface. Maximum temperatures will touch
70f in the warmest southern valleys Sunday but most valleys will
be in the middle to upper 60s...with 50s in the mountains. The cold
front will bring brief strong winds after midnight Sunday night...
then lighter winds for a few hours...then advisory speeds Monday
due to tight Post-frontal surface pressure gradient and strong
northwest winds aloft. Associated upper trough looks certainly
enegetic enough to support an advisory event. A high wind event
is unlikely but not impossible...especially in the Magic Valley.
Rain and snow showers will accompany frontal passage in northern zones but
only a chance of rain showers in southern zones. Early morning
frontal passage timing will be unfavorable for thunderstorms. Monday
afternoon will be cold enough for wet snow showers as low as the
snake basin even with temperatures above 40f.
Long term...Monday night through Saturday...cooler air and lowering
snow levels expected in wake of the strong cold front early Monday.
Mainly dry conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday as the region
remains under cool and dry northwesterly flow. Thursday a strong
cold front arrives from the Gulf of Alaska...expect windy conditions
and showers mainly over the northern terrain. Snow levels will
remain between 4-5k feet mean sea level through the extended. Temperatures will
be 5-10 degrees below normal under the cool northwesterly flow
Aviation...VFR. Mostly clear skies. Surface winds 10kt or less...
except Magic Valley where westerly winds 15-20kt this afternoon
becoming light after sunset. Winds aloft west-northwest 15-25kt becoming west-southwest
20-30kt by 12z sun.
Idaho...Wind Advisory from noon to 6 PM MDT Monday
Or...Wind Advisory from 6 am MDT /5 am PDT/ to 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/