Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
538 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015
for 12z aviation.
Short term...today through Sunday night.
The cold front has pushed through central Alabama and gusty north
winds will usher in much colder air today. Some Post-frontal low
clouds blanket the area...but the clouds have been eroding during
the past several hours and expect skies will become mostly sunny
by late morning. High clouds from the southwestern states upper
low are already starting to spill eastward towards Alabama...and
the cirrus will thicken later tonight and Saturday across Alabama.
The air mass will remain mostly dry below 700mb through Saturday
night...and this should hold the rain off until Sunday. Rain
should overspread most of the area during the day on Sunday as a
northern stream short wave trough axis approaches the Mississippi
River. The rain will continue into the overnight hours on Sunday
as a cold front pushes quickly eastward across central Alabama.
There may be a brief period across the northwest counties late
Sunday night where the rain mixes with light snow...but surface
temperatures will be above freezing...so no impacts expected.
Long term...Monday through Thursday.
Some light rain may linger early Monday across east Alabama...
but skies will gradually clear. Despite sunshine...strong cold air
advection will keep highs in the 40s across much of the area. A
surface high will build across the area Monday night and
temperatures will drop into the 20s. A gradual warming trend on
Tuesday as surface winds become southeast. The models are still
struggling with the remnants of the southwest upper low. The
remnants of the low will move into the northwest Gulf of Mexico on
Wednesday. The GFS has been trending towards a wetter solution
across central Alabama...but the European model (ecmwf) model is now slowing down
the system and showing the bulk of the rain affecting Alabama on
Thursday. For now will not deviate much from previous forecast and
keep the highest rain chances Wednesday and Wednesday night...
with the rain ending before sunrise Thursday. Surface temperatures
are forecast to remain above freezing during the time of
12z taf discussion.
A few Post frontal clouds between 3000 and 3500 feet this morning.
These will continue to break up through the next few hours with
only cirrus expected late this morning and afternoon. Winds today from
the north around 10kts with occasional gusts of 16 to 20 kts.