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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
557 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015

Update...
for 12z aviation.

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Discussion...

Looking at a nice day today with highs well into the 50s. The
system approaching Sunday has slowed down just a little bit and
adjusted the timing of the rainfall to more of a late
morning/afternoon arrival. This will lead to a slightly warmer day
and bumped temperatures up just a little bit as well. Raised probability of precipitation
both Sunday and Sunday night as it is pretty much a sure bet at this
point. Rain should exit the forecast area by daybreak Monday with
breezy conditions and highs ranging from the upper 30s north to
near 50 south.

Dry weather on Monday afternoon will continue into Tuesday before
another system quickly moves into the region. A southern branch
shortwave is expected to eject with a push of cold air from
Canada. This should lead to a cold rain on Wednesday/Wednesday
night across our southern counties as a weak surface low skirts
the Gulf Coast. Not nearly as confident in what will happen across
the northern half of the County Warning Area with the surface ridge sliding in
from the north. Still a good bit of spread in the models with the
GFS showing a more prolonged event ending up with some light snow
Thursday evening. Leaned towards the Euro/CMC solutions for now as
they are very much in-line with each other. Looks like the really
frigid air behind this system stays north for now.

88

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Aviation...
12z taf discussion.

VFR forecast for the next 24 hours. A surface high pressure ridge
extends across the eastern United States. Cirrus clouds will
stream into Alabama from the northwest today into tonight.
Moisture will be limited to the middle/upper levels and no
precipitation is expected through the taf forecast period. Lower
ceilings and more extensive moisture...bringing rain showers moves
into the state during the day on Sunday ahead of a cold front.

08/mk

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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 55 34 56 38 40 / 0 0 100 90 10
Anniston 56 37 57 40 42 / 0 0 100 90 10
Birmingham 57 39 58 37 42 / 0 0 100 90 10
Tuscaloosa 58 41 59 38 44 / 0 10 100 90 0
Calera 58 40 58 39 43 / 0 0 100 90 10
Auburn 57 41 59 42 47 / 0 0 90 90 10
Montgomery 61 39 62 44 47 / 0 0 90 90 10
Troy 59 37 63 44 49 / 0 0 90 90 10

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Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

88/08

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