Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
254 PM CDT Monday may 20 2013
Discussion...
Not much of a change in the overall forecast from the overnight
issuance as models are fairly persistent with the overall pattern.
High pressure will be in place through Tuesday. There are a few
showers developing in the far southeast as of 2 PM and will continue
in this area for the rest of the afternoon. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible generally south of I-85/US 80 through
9 PM. Overnight...clouds clear and patchy fog will likely develop.
Confidence is growing as afternoon mixing is minimal and lows are
forecast to be at or below afternoon mixed dewpoints. Another
concern overnight will be a deck of stratus that may develop in
southern Mississippi...southern Alabama and slide northward in
southwestern sections of the area. For now went with patchy fog and
increased clouds from south to north after 4 am.
By Tuesday night the slow moving cold front will begin to approach
the area. Think that most of the thunderstorms will hold off until
Wednesday...but did continue with the slight chance across the
northwest. The cold front will then enter the area Wednesday. Went
ahead and increased to likely across the north and west as the best
chances will be there. Issue will be that the front is expected to
be diminishing as it moves into the area. Good news in regard to
severe potential as it will be limited...but bad news in regards to
increased complexity with the forecast. Tried to stick with a more
conceptual aspect with the forecast and tried to pick the opportune
time frame for the areas with the front. Cold front slowly works
through and scattered thunderstorms remain in the forecast through
Thursday night.
High pressure builds back into the area on Friday and will likely
remain through Sunday...with the next front expected by early next
week. Overall temperatures above normal for the next two days then
near normal for the rest of the period.
16
&&
Aviation...
18z taf discussion.
Low level moisture was slow to lift this morning but everyone
should be VFR very shortly. With upper ridge building overhead
tonight and light winds...the possibility for lower visibilities
will exist before sunrise. Surface dewpoints are very slowly
beginning to lower as some drier air mixes down but still holding
in the upper 60s. Introduced some MVFR/IFR visible for most locations
late tonight. VFR conditions by late morning Tuesday.
88
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 64 89 66 82 66 / 10 10 10 60 40
Anniston 66 88 67 84 65 / 10 10 10 60 50
Birmingham 68 90 68 83 66 / 10 10 10 60 40
Tuscaloosa 65 91 67 83 65 / 10 10 20 60 30
Calera 67 90 66 84 66 / 10 10 10 60 40
Auburn 66 89 67 85 65 / 10 10 10 40 40
Montgomery 66 92 67 88 67 / 10 10 10 40 50
Troy 64 91 67 89 67 / 30 10 10 30 40
&&
Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
