Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
259 PM CDT Thursday Oct 30 2014
Conditions remain quiet across the region with northerly winds and
high pressure behind a departing shortwave. Temperatures will
fall quickly this evening with dry air and light winds in place.
A series of upstream shortwaves will combine to carve out an
anomalous trough over the Carolinas by Saturday. As this occurs...
a very strong surge of cold air will come southward and begin
affecting the area Friday afternoon. Though moisture will be
limited with precipitable water values around 0.75 inches...low heights with
very cold air aloft should contribute to spotty showers over the
northern part of the County Warning Area on Friday. Precipitable water values will abruptly drop
below 0.25 inches Friday evening as cold air plunges southward.
Strong cold advection will send temperatures into the low to middle
30s Saturday morning with wind chill values well into the 20s.
Since winds of 10-20 miles per hour are expected...frost will not occur
though temperatures may touch the freezing mark in some areas.
Temperatures will only rise into the low to middle 50s for much of
the area for Saturday afternoon. A widespread light freeze is
possible Sunday morning as a surface ridge axis moves much closer
to the County Warning Area...and the normal cold spots could see low of 27-29f.
Light winds should allow for widespread frost for most areas. A
freeze watch will probably be needed by tomorrow for overnight
Saturday night into Sunday morning.
A warming trend will begin on Sunday afternoon as an upper-level
ridge builds into the region. Surface high pressure will become
anchored near the Carolina coast with the surface ridge axis
extending westward into Alabama. Relatively dry air should remain
in place with light winds and sizable diurnal temperature swings
for Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures should rebound into the
70s for Tuesday and Wednesday...and an increase in moisture could
bring the next chance of rain by late Wednesday as a system
approaches from the west.
18z taf discussion.
Other than a few minor gusts this afternoon...no aviation issues
through the next 24 hours. The fog that formed near anb this
morning is not expected to redevelop tonight as the moisture
continues to dry up across the area. Winds will remain northerly.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 39 65 33 52 29 / 0 20 0 0 0
Anniston 40 66 33 52 31 / 0 20 0 0 0
Birmingham 43 66 33 53 31 / 0 20 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 42 68 34 55 31 / 0 10 0 0 0
Calera 44 67 34 53 33 / 0 10 0 0 0
Auburn 44 69 34 52 35 / 0 10 0 0 0
Montgomery 42 71 36 57 34 / 0 10 0 0 0
Troy 40 72 36 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 0