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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
issued by National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
421 PM CDT Thursday Mar 26 2015

Discussion...
watching convection fire in SW portion of County Warning Area ahead of front.
MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 j/kg support storms possibly strong
but with weak vertical wind shear and lack of strong surface
forcing in this area...do not anticipate any storms to exceed severe
thresholds. Primary frontal boundary still to the west and while
isolated showers tried all day to develop along the front...limited
instability inhibiting further development. Front should move out
of County Warning Area after 5am Friday...taking chance for convection with it.

Much cooler temperatures expected behind front. Could see light freeze
event Sat morning. Will be considering freeze watch tonight...for
now have left out.

Other than additional chance for light rain Saturday...next chance for
rain begins Sun night/Monday as another short wave drops down in
northwest flow. GFS/European model (ecmwf) also indicate active southern stream with one
wave for Wednesday and another one Friday. If sufficient instability
develops ahead of either one of these...as 12z GFS hints at...could
see first opportunity for severe storms. Always a concern this time
of year.

Snelson

&&

Aviation...
18z taf discussion.

Ceilings have improved but still linger on the VFR/MVFR line for all
sites. Models continue to show precipitation working into the west
ahead of the front and then showers along the front itself. Went
with thunderstorms in the vicinity after 22z west and then moved that further east. Went
with predominate showers after 00z north and 01z south. Ceilings then
drop to MVFR...and potentially brief IFR after 7z. Clearing
finally by 14 to 16z Friday.

16



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 42 54 33 50 31 / 70 10 10 10 20
Anniston 44 56 33 51 31 / 70 10 10 10 20
Birmingham 42 56 35 52 34 / 70 10 10 10 20
Tuscaloosa 43 59 38 55 37 / 70 10 10 20 20
Calera 44 56 37 53 35 / 70 10 10 10 20
Auburn 48 58 37 54 35 / 70 10 10 10 20
Montgomery 49 61 39 60 38 / 60 10 10 10 20
Troy 49 61 39 59 39 / 60 10 10 10 10

&&

Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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