Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
647 PM CDT Friday Sep 19 2014
for 00z aviation.
Earlier update still on track as activity did develop in the
northeast this afternoon. A little bit more in coverage than
expected as The Wedge moves into the northeast this afternoon.
We will continue to see The Wedge slide west before pushing south
during the overnight hours and into the day Saturday. What this
should mean for the area would be increasing high pressure from
north to south. By the peak heating of the day on Saturday the
best moisture should be just south and east of central Alabama.
This should keep most of central Alabama in the dry slot during
the day and evening hours. On Sunday we will begin to see a
conventional cold front slide into the area. This front remains
positively tilted and will dissipate as it works into northern
Alabama Sunday night. Best coverage will be across the northern
counties through midnight Sunday night. As the front continues to
push south Monday morning...there could be an isolated shower or
two in the south until the early afternoon.
Behind the cold front...temperatures will really begin to feel
more like fall and lows will drop into the 50s on Tuesday morning.
A few cooler spots may even flirt with the upper 40s in the far
Easterly flow returns on Thursday and will bring back more
moisture into the area as high pressure builds to our north. Rain
chances return Thursday afternoon across the far south with better
chances on Friday. There are some model discrepancies in the
longer range models for the end of next week as the Euro keeps the
area dry...but with easterly flow this time of the year...isolated
showers/storms are always a good bet.
00z taf discussion.
Easterly flow through the taf period. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are quickly dimishing this afternoon. A reasonable
chance for seeing some MVFR ceilings for the eastern half of the
County Warning Area later tonight...then improving by late morning.
Note: we will begin back with our seasonal issuance of kasn taf
(talladega al) on October 5th at the 00z issuance and it will run
through October 23rd 00z.