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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
338 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

Discussion...

The synoptic-scale weather pattern over the next week will be
characterized by a persistent trough across the western U.S. And a
ridge over the east. A weak closed low over the lower Mississippi
Valley will become cut off from westerlies at higher latitudes and
will become a factor in our weather.

For today and tomorrow...this feature should remain west of our
area with little rain expected as we remain under the influence
of anticyclonic flow associated with ridge near the Bahamas.
Models are still not in good agreement by Thursday with the
placement of the weak 500mb low over the deep south...but the
European model (ecmwf) has been consistent in moving this feature eastward...and
the GFS is now trending toward that solution. Will side with the
European model (ecmwf) once again and show decreasing temperatures and scattered
showers and storms Thursday and Friday. Similar temperatures and probability of precipitation
should continue into the weekend with continued cyclonic flow at
500mb associated with a trough axis extending from the Carolina
coast westward into Alabama.

87/Grantham

&&

Aviation...
06z taf discussion.

Dewpoints remain high this evening and are only a degree or two
away from the forecast lows...so patchy fog still remains a
possibility. Over the last hour there has been some high clouds
working into the west...so widespread fog may not be as widespread
as it could be. Continued MVFR br for all sites except for bhm and
added in IFR at eet...anb and mgm. Confidence highest at mgm. Toi
may drop as well but confidence not as high here.

16

&&

Fire weather...

Dry conditions expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with a return to
isolated to scattered showers and storms by the end of the week. Relative humidity
values will remain above critical threshold values. No fire
weather concerns are expected at this time.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 89 69 89 68 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
Anniston 88 70 90 70 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
Birmingham 89 72 90 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
Tuscaloosa 92 72 92 73 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
Calera 90 73 89 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
Auburn 89 72 90 72 89 / 10 10 20 10 30
Montgomery 94 73 93 73 91 / 10 10 20 10 30
Troy 92 72 92 73 91 / 10 10 20 10 40

&&

Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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