Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1159 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Update...
aviation discussion.
&&
Discussion...
Most of central Alabama is now under fair skies...as most shower
and thunderstorm activity has either dissipated or moved south of
the County Warning Area. The old cold front is becoming less and less
pronounced based on surface observation...as winds have become calm for
many locations and dewpoints near 70 degrees have returned.
However...the kbmx 00z radiosonde observation does indicate that the overall
moisture profile has decreased from the 12z radiosonde observation this morning with
precipitable water of 1.17 as opposed to 1.62 this morning. The cloud cover
associated with the front will continue to push southward toward the
Gulf Coast later on tonight. The drier air will help temperatures
cool a few degrees lower than they were last night...but persistent
moisture at the surface due to the rainfall over the past couple of
days may mitigate the cooling somewhat. The increased moisture could
also bring the chance of patchy fog as temperatures approach the
dewpoint after midnight tonight. The best chance of any patchy fog
will still be across the southeastern counties just behind the cold
front...and have left mention of fog in the forecast for those
locations. I have overall adjusted dewpoints higher based on
observation trends and raised lows by a degree or two for most
locations. Some of the cooler valley locations could still drop to
the middle 60s...but most locations will likely observe upper 60s to
near 70 degrees for lows tonight. Updates are out.
56/gdg
&&
Aviation...
06z taf discussion.
Winds have diminished across much of the area tonight...with surface
moisture remaining elevated. Patchy fog is possible...especially
across the southern half of the area. Very isolated areas of 3-4kft
cloud decks have developed across the south. There is weak lift
noted in forecast models...which weakens after 09z. Will include scattered
clouds at mgm and toi above 3kft for several hours...before light
fog develops.
Lower visible and ceilings will lift with sunrise Thursday morning. Front
should be shifting south of the area during the morning hours. This
will lower any rain chances across the south...and will only include
scattered 3kft ceilings at mgm and toi for tomorrow.
14
&&
Previous discussion...
/issued 305 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013/
Looking at ongoing conditions across central Alabama...a middle level
shortwave has helped spark a line of showers and thunderstorms just
south of the slow moving cold front across the far southeastern
counties. Not expecting any severe weather with this activity...just
brief heavy rain and lightning. Elsewhere...dry air continues to
slowly filter in behind the boundary. It's not a significant drying
as dew points have fallen into the middle/upper 60s as compared to the
low 70s...but nonetheless it does make it feel just a little more
bearable outside.
For tonight...could still see an isolated shower or two linger into the
evening hours mainly south of I-85. With some residual moisture
still in place just behind the front...patchy fog and/or some low
clouds could redevelop across the southeast after midnight.
Overnight temperatures should generally be a couple degrees cooler than
last night with lows in the middle 60s north to around 70 south. Weak
troughing will remain over the eastern Continental U.S. On Thursday and there
could be just enough moisture in place for some isolated afternoon convection.
Therefore will keep slight chance probability of precipitation area wide for Thursday.
Overall pattern remains largely unchanged through the remainder of the
forecast period. Models still indicate a weak area of low pressure
in the upper levels over the central Gulf Coast by Friday. This
weakness...between the ridge in Texas and the western Atlantic
ridge...is prognosticated to reside over the area through at least the
weekend. This combined with southeasterly surface flow will mean
increased rain chances in the Friday-sun timeframe. As we move into
early next week...rain chances will continue as surface flow becomes
more southerly. Rain/cloud cover will keep temperatures at or just below
normal.
19
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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 65 89 65 87 65 / 10 20 20 20 20
Anniston 68 89 68 87 67 / 10 20 20 20 20
Birmingham 70 89 69 88 69 / 10 20 20 20 20
Tuscaloosa 69 92 69 90 71 / 10 20 20 20 20
Calera 68 89 69 87 70 / 10 20 20 30 20
Auburn 69 87 68 87 68 / 20 30 20 40 20
Montgomery 70 91 71 90 72 / 20 30 20 40 20
Troy 68 90 70 89 71 / 20 40 20 40 20
&&
Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
