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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
326 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014

Discussion...

Shower and thunderstorm development has remained somewhat limited
this afternoon...but will need to continue to monitor for isolated
severe microbursts with the stronger storms. This diurnally-driven
activity should diminish through the evening.

By tomorrow afternoon the much anticipated upper-level ridge will
have strengthened substantially with anticyclonic flow and
subsidence squelching convection. Have left a silent 10 pop in
across the eastern County Warning Area in case low-level moisture is sufficient
enough for very isolated shower or storm. Conditions are expected
to remain rain-free for Friday and Saturday.

The heat is the main concern for Thursday through Sunday as highs
climb into the middle to upper 90s. Decided to go with dewpoints on
the lower end of the guidance (mid to upper 60s) for the afternoon
hours on each day as boundary layer moisture may become more
limited due to northwesterly flow. This would result in heat index
values in the 100-104f range for most areas. If dewpoints end up
slightly higher than forecast...heat advisory criteria (105f or
greater) would be met over a large portion of the County Warning Area.

Models have become rather consistent in showing a back door front
moving westward from Georgia on Sunday as the upper-level ridge
amplifies and retreats to the northwest. Have increased rain
chances across the east for Sunday afternoon with activity
shifting westward across the forecast area on Monday. Temperatures
should drift back closer to normal for Monday and Tuesday in
association with deep easterly flow.

87/Grantham

&&

Aviation...
18z taf discussion.

No change to forecast reasoning/details. VFR conditions are
expected through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon...but confidence is not high enough to include thunderstorms in the vicinity at
any of the terminals at this time. Winds will prevail from the
west to southwest through sunset...then trend light from SW to northwest
overnight. Expect light west to northwest winds tomorrow.

Jd/02

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 70 95 70 96 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
Anniston 71 95 71 96 72 / 20 10 10 10 10
Birmingham 73 97 73 97 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
Tuscaloosa 72 97 72 98 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
Calera 72 96 72 97 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
Auburn 72 96 72 96 73 / 20 10 10 10 10
Montgomery 72 97 73 98 74 / 20 10 10 10 10
Troy 71 96 71 97 72 / 20 10 10 10 10

&&

Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

87/02

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