Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
525 PM CST Friday Jan 30 2015
for 00z aviation.
Cool conditions have moved in behind a cold front that passed
through last night. High pressure is moving into the region with
radiational cooling expected to cause temperatures to drop into
the middle to upper 20s for the entire area tonight.
The first part of the weekend should be fairly nice with dry
weather and highs in the middle to upper 50s on Saturday. A quick
transition will take place on Saturday night into Sunday with
increasing southerly low-level flow as a trough approaches from
the west. Have raised probability of precipitation closer to 100 for Sunday as a fairly
strong cold front passes through. Rain should exit the forecast
area by daybreak Monday with breezy conditions and highs ranging
from the upper 30s north to near 50 south.
Dry weather on Monday afternoon will continue into Tuesday before
another system quickly moves into the region. A southern branch
shortwave is expected to eject with a push of cold air from
Canada. This may lead to a cold rain on Wednesday or Thursday as
a weak surface low skirts the Gulf Coast. Confidence in timing and
placement of this system is low. Colder weather may move in
behind the system Thursday night into Friday.
00z taf discussion.
Expect diminishing/light winds overnight veering towards the east
by morning. Increasing high clouds after the 12z time frame will
eventually thicken and lower later in the day tomorrow. Winds
shift to more from the southeast after 18z but will remain at or
below 7 kts.