Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
537 PM CST Friday Feb 5 2016

Update...
for 00z aviation.

&&

Discussion...

Surface high pressure...weak middle level ridging...and low level
cold advection keeping skies clear and temperatures slightly
below normal today. Low level winds diminish tonight as surface
high pressure shifts across the region. With clear skies and
dewpoints in the teens and 20s...expect overnight lows to fall
into the middle 20s to lower 30s.

Ridging quickly shifts downstream as a trough digs southward
through the plains...becoming a closed low as it moves eastward
across the southeastern Continental U.S. Tomorrow. Despite the trough...a
significant lack of moisture will keep the area dry with only an
increase in cloud cover. Brief middle level ridging on Sunday and
clearing skies allow temperatures to warm several degrees...with
most locations in the middle to upper 50s Sunday afternoon. A second
closed low will dive out of central Canada Sunday and into the
Midwest...amplifying the trough over the southeastern Continental U.S.. a
series of impulses within the longwave trough will squeeze out
some moisture beginning early Monday morning through Tuesday
across portions of north central Alabama. A warm surface layer
will prevent any frozen precipitation Monday. As cold advection
continues into Tuesday...profiles cool in the lowest 1kft and light
snow will be possible across the far northeast Monday night and
Tuesday. Do not expect any accumulations as moisture is not deep
enough and a drier layer near the surface will cause some moisture
to evaporate. Models continue to have a difficult time resolving
just how cold this airmass will be. Will continue to lean toward
raw model output...with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on
Tuesday. Overnight lows both Monday night and Tuesday night will
be in the 25-30 degree range.

The closed low and main forcing within the trough pull to the east
Wednesday. Although we stay on the back of the trough and
northwesterly flow...warm advection returns Wednesday allowing
temperatures to quickly moderate. Highs will be back in the 50s
for the second half of the work week with lows in the 30s and
lower 40s...with dry conditions.

14



&&

Aviation...
00z taf discussion.

VFR conditions continue. High pressure will slowly drift west to
east over central Alabama. Winds go generally light tonight and
become light northerly to variable tomorrow. High clouds will move
over the area late tonight and into Saturday.

75

&&

Fire weather...

No fire weather concerns are expected at this time. Slightly more
humid conditions expected over the weekend...with afternoon relative humidity
values remaining above 30 percent. No rain expected through
Sunday. Light rain chances return late Sunday night across the far
north.

14

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 25 50 28 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 20
Anniston 27 52 29 54 36 / 0 0 0 0 10
Birmingham 29 51 31 55 37 / 0 0 0 0 10
Tuscaloosa 27 52 30 57 36 / 0 0 0 0 10
Calera 30 52 32 55 36 / 0 0 0 0 10
Auburn 29 51 32 54 37 / 0 0 0 0 10
Montgomery 28 56 31 56 37 / 0 0 0 0 10
Troy 28 55 31 56 37 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations