Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
1156 PM CDT sun may 19 2013 


Update... 
for 06z aviation. 


&& 


Discussion... 


Outflow boundary moving from northeast to southwest across the 
eastern half of central Alabama helped continue some showers and 
thunderstorms. Since about 6 PM...the coverage and intensity of 
the storms have been decreasing. No more heavy rain is expected 
in the areas that experienced the flooding earlier in the 
weekend...and the Flash Flood Watch was allowed to expire at 7 PM. 
There's 3 or 4 active cells remaining...all near the US-280 
corridor. Expect that the decreasing trend will continue through 
the midnight hour. After that time...conditions will be mostly 
cloudy and perhaps foggy here and there...but the rain should be 
done. Will have updated forecasts out soon. 


/61/ 


&& 


Aviation... 
06z taf discussion. 


Mainly VFR conditions expected through 09z before low ceilings may 
begin to form. Confidence is low in such development but ceilings and 
visible dipping to IFR levels are possible as weak and moist southerly 
flow continues. Improving conditions are expected during the 
daylight hours Monday but there is some potential for ceilings to 
linger longer than indicated. 


87/Grantham 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Gadsden 67 90 64 88 68 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Anniston 66 88 66 89 66 / 20 10 10 10 10 
Birmingham 67 90 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Tuscaloosa 67 92 65 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Calera 67 89 67 90 68 / 20 10 10 10 10 
Auburn 66 88 66 88 65 / 50 10 10 10 10 
Montgomery 67 91 66 92 68 / 30 10 10 10 10 
Troy 67 89 64 91 67 / 30 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


61/87