Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
713 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015
for 00z aviation.
Easterly flow beginning to set up with winds in east Alabama
already there. This will allow US to gradually moisten up the next
couple of days. An isolated shower possible tomorrow in southeastern
Alabama but still relatively dry.
Saturday...weak upper low sets up over the deep south as a
shortwave passes through the Midwest. This elongated troughing
will allow for better coverage of showers/storms during the day
Saturday. Bumped up the probability of precipitation with highest coverage from east to
west which is in line with the most favorable area of lift along
the eastern side of the upper low feature and coinciding with The
Wedge front-like affects from the easterly surface flow. Brought
down temperatures a little bit to account for the better coverage
and easterly affects.
By Sunday...the Saturday features begin to diminish with the upper
lift pulling off to the northeast and the surface flow becoming
more southerly with time. Coverage should be a little less and
temperatures just a little warmer.
Monday through Thursday...not much to really to initiate
convection this time period. Will have to wait and see what Erika
will do but for now will carry very low probability of precipitation and temperatures near
00z taf discussion.
Generally a VFR forecast for central Alabama. A weak easterly
wave/inverted trough will shift westward over central Alabama
through tonight. This will aide in the easterly moisture increase.
Some cumulus clouds were the result this afternoon. Model output
differs on the isentropic lift and moisture levels overnight. At
this time...did not include any ceilings but will be monitoring
for development this evening. At least...a few cumulus will
continue to hang around the state. Fog has been very sporadic the
past few nights and has not impacted any terminal. Left the brief
mention around sunrise at anb. Friday will see east to southeast
winds around 9 kts with the cumulus developing once again. Some
ceilings may develop particularly east but will be VFR.
Dry conditions will continue through Friday but relative humidity
values will stay above critical thresholds. Rain chances return
beginning Saturday with isolated to scattered showers/storms
possible each day through early next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 65 87 69 85 69 / 0 10 10 50 40
Anniston 67 88 70 86 69 / 0 10 10 50 40
Birmingham 68 89 71 85 70 / 0 10 10 40 40
Tuscaloosa 67 91 70 88 70 / 0 0 0 40 30
Calera 68 89 70 86 70 / 0 10 10 50 40
Auburn 69 88 70 85 70 / 0 20 10 50 40
Montgomery 68 92 71 89 71 / 0 10 10 50 30
Troy 67 90 70 86 69 / 0 20 10 50 30