Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1103 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Temperatures are warming rapidly this morning with clear skies and
dry air at the surface over central Alabama. Some locations today
will have a diurnal range of almost 40 degrees comparing lows at
daybreak this morning and highs this afternoon. Another weak
shortwave embedded within the northwest flow aloft will pass
through the state today...but will only spread a few scattered
clouds across the area. The upper ridge will continue to build
eastward this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the middle 70s
east to the lower 80s west. The forecast is currently on track
with no changes needed at this time. Updates are already out.
12z taf discussion.
VFR conds expected through the period. Surface high centered near the
Mississippi River will produce north winds across central Alabama.
/issued 346 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/
Clear skies and strong radiational cooling has caused temperatures
to fall into the lower 40s in many locations this morning. By the
afternoon...widespread middle to upper 70s are expected with a few
spots possibly reaching 80f as a strong 500mb ridge moves eastward
from Texas. Temperatures will continue a warming trend into Sunday
and Monday with lower to middle 80s area-wide as the ridge axis shifts
eastward across the region.
The ridge should shift far enough east by Tuesday to cause an
increase in low-level moisture with southwesterly flow. A trough
over the Great Lakes region will have an associated trailing cold
front that will make slow progress southward. The highest moisture
content is expected to be limited to a narrow zone near the front
with precipitation remaining to the north of the County Warning Area for Tuesday
as upper-level support exits into the New England states. By
Wednesday the front may continue to move slowly southward and
should be located somewhere in the County Warning Area with 30-40 probability of precipitation. Will keep
20 probability of precipitation in for Wednesday night and Thursday as a the front pauses
ahead of an upstream shortwave. Models are in better agreement for
Thursday night into Friday...indicating the front will be shunted
southward as the shortwave trough axis swings through. Perhaps the
coldest air of the season could be on the way behind this system.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 77 49 82 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Anniston 77 49 82 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Birmingham 78 53 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 80 53 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Calera 77 54 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Auburn 77 53 81 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 79 53 84 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Troy 78 51 83 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 0