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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
613 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015

Update...
for 00z aviation.

&&

Discussion...

Clouds clearing out as upper trough pulls out of the area.
Temperatures ranging from the low 40s in the east to 50 in the
west. Cool tonight with lows in the 30 to 35 range.

The next system to affect the area will come on Thursday as
another trough digs across the eastern Continental U.S.. limited moisture
again with this system and 12z trends were a little weaker with this
one than previous runs. Lowered the probability of precipitation to slight chance for
Thursday and Thursday evening.

By the end of the week and especially by middle of the weekend...a
cutoff low will have formed over northwest Mexico/southern Arizona.
Part of the energy with this will break off and merge with another
shortwave that comes down from western Canada. This system will
pick up some moisture and bring a decent chance for wide spread
rain to the deep south. 12z profiles are too warm for snow with
the surface low tracking right through central Alabama. Did raise
the probability of precipitation a little bit over the weekend.

Nothing unusual about the temperatures the next 7 days. Thursday
looks like the warmest day with many locations reach 60 to 65 just
ahead of the cold front. Temperatures generally within a few
degrees of climatology.

88



&&

Aviation...
00z taf discussion.

Some MVFR ceilings expected across the area this period. Central
Alabama was located on the back side of an upper trough and
another few disturbances will rotate around this trough the next
24 hours. Plenty of middle and upper level clouds were indicated on
satellite north of the area...with some MVFR ceilings in there
too. These clouds will rotate across north and east Alabama
overnight. Local area radar even indicate some light snow falling
far northeast. Added mention of the lower ceilings at
bhm/eet/asn/anb. By 15z...much of the cloud cover will exit
eastward and the winds will swing around to a northerly
component...gusting 15-20kts at times.

75

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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 31 49 28 51 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
Anniston 32 51 29 54 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Birmingham 34 53 31 54 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 35 56 33 55 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
Calera 34 54 32 54 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Auburn 34 54 32 53 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 35 59 32 56 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
Troy 35 59 33 55 36 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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