Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1146 am CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015
A few boundaries were across central Alabama late this morning.
The convective temperature was just above 90 degrees and several
areas of cumulus were already developing. Expect shower and
thunderstorm development within the next 2 hours generally from
I-59 southward. Downdraft convective available potential energy are rather large and the
microburst composite is also large...even with the high
precipitable water values. Therefore...a few strong storms are
possible this afternoon and early evening with wind gusts up to 50
miles per hour the primary threat. A general north to south progression of
the storms is expected with the highest coverage south by sunset.
No major changes to the remaining components of the forecast.
18z taf discussion.
A few surface boundaries across central Alabama this afternoon and
an upper level impulse will lead to shower and thunderstorm
development from I-59 southward. This includes all of the terminal
locations. Included thunderstorms in the vicinity and tempo mention for all terminals this
afternoon with the tempo groups ranging from 19 to 24z. This was
based on a convective temperature just above 90 degrees and the
features. Some adjustments may become necessary. Also added some
variable wind gusts due to the potential of downdrafts even with
moisture values rather high. Otherwise...the forecasts were
Above normal temperatures and high humidity values will continue
today. A weak cold front will bring less humid air into central
Alabama on Friday...along with decreasing chances of rain through
/issued 329 am CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015/
So...another Summer night across central Alabama with lows in the
middle 70s...will give way to another day of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the area. Unfortunately before
the rain relief can work into the area...the south may reach or
exceed heat advisory criteria...so issued for the southwestern
counties for this afternoon. Once showers and thunderstorms get
going they will likely cluster at times. It is when they cluster
that the stronger storms will be possible. Unfortunately to give
any exact location or even time frame would be difficult at this
time. All of this will be ahead of a feature that is moving into
the northern counties this morning.
That feature would be a cold front. No really its a cold front.
Of course it is late July so really all a cold front will do this
time of the year is provide the area with a few degrees of relief.
At least with this it looks like our middle 70s Summer night dreams
may be a thing of the past as dewpoints will drop into the lower
60s and maybe even upper 50s by Friday morning. What is even more
impressing is a secondary front will bring a re-enforcing shot of
dry air in on Saturday night. This will help keep the area fairly
dry through at least Tuesday. With that said there will be an area
of interest in the eastern Gulf that could keep some isolated
showers/storms across the southeast through Tuesday. Really
depends on the track of the system. Models have had almost zero
agreement on this system over the past 4 nights.
As we move into midweek...another system will try to sweep
southward through the area. With the system in the Gulf...moisture
may remain limited with this next system so will just go with more
of the typical Summer time pattern from Wednesday through the end
of next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 95 68 90 66 91 / 40 20 10 10 10
Anniston 95 70 91 67 91 / 50 20 10 10 10
Birmingham 96 69 92 70 92 / 40 20 10 0 10
Tuscaloosa 98 69 93 69 93 / 50 20 10 0 0
Calera 95 70 92 68 91 / 60 20 10 10 10
Auburn 95 72 91 71 90 / 60 40 30 30 30
Montgomery 98 73 93 72 94 / 70 40 20 10 20
Troy 97 73 93 72 92 / 60 50 30 20 40
heat advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Autauga-Dallas-