Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
927 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014
A few light showers across The Heart of the County Warning Area this evening. Some
heavier showers in the northeast over Cherokee County. Weak
troughing will remain over the area tonight so a light shower
continue to be possible through the overnight. A slight bump up on
the lows to reflect the latest trend in the observation...lots of clouds
still around. Lows 66 to 72. Updates out shortly.
00z taf discussion.
The air mass is relatively dry and mostly middle to high clouds
prevail across the area. Some light showers over Mississippi have
been tracking eastward into Alabama and dissipating. Do not expect
much precipitation overnight but there will likely be an increase in low
level moisture due to a trough axis extending from a surface low over
Louisiana and northeast into central Alabama. This trough will
provide for some isentropic lift across the I-20 corridor.
Widespread MVFR ceilings will prevail across central Alabama after
10z. The lowest ceilings will likely be across the northern taf sites
which will be closer to trough axis. There is a Big Range of
forecast ceiling heights between the numerical guidance models. The
NAM model shows IFR ceilings across north Alabama by 12z. Climatology
does not favor IFR ceilings with an easterly low level flow...and
will keep ceilings above 1000 feet above ground level this forecast package. Fog
should not be much of an issue due to wind flow and clouds. Ceilings
will rise slowly after 14z with most areas likely experiencing
MVFR ceilings by 18z. Expect more coverage of precipitation Saturday afternoon
and included vcsh/thunderstorms in the vicinity in tafs.