Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1128 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013
Update...
for aviation.
&&
Aviation...
06z taf discussion.
No change from previous package thinking. Drier air will be
moving into the area with the front as high pressure pushes
southward across the central U.S. And Mississippi River valley
toward the Gulf Coast states. No issues are expected. VFR through
the next 24 hours. A few gusty winds during the day today in the
wake of the front.
08
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 918 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013/
Update...
evening update.
Discussion...
A weak cold front is currently moving across the forecast area and
will provide a much needed break from all the heat and humidity.
Forecast is in pretty good shape just made some tweaks to the
hourly temperature and dew point grids. Additionally...increased
cloud cover a bit across the north with clouds behind the front
moving down from the Ohio River valley. Not expecting fog tonight
with drier air advecting in behind the front.
05
Previous discussion... /issued 314 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013/
Short term...tonight through Sunday.
Drier air continues to filter into the area under northwest flow
with surface dew points currently in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A
fairly amplified upper trough will establish itself over the eastern
United States through Saturday. No fog expected tonight as northerly
boundary layer winds stay up around 15 miles per hour. A sunny day on Friday
with low humidity and afternoon temperatures 5-8 degrees below
average. Northerly winds on Friday will bring down a cool enough
air mass that several locations will be near or below record
temperatures Saturday morning. Record low temperatures for
Saturday morning are noted in the climate section below.
Temperatures will rebound over the weekend and afternoon readings
will be back to near average values by Sunday as a weak upper
ridge builds eastward. The GFS and Canadian models are showing a
more zonal flow pattern developing by Sunday and keeping the
convection north of Alabama. The European model (ecmwf) model is keeping a
slightly more northwest flow pattern...and it tries to bring some
convection into extreme north Alabama on Sunday. For now...will
keep a dry forecast.
58/rose
Long term...Monday through Thursday.
A Big Warm-up next week as an upper trough digs southward over the
western United States and an upper ridge builds over the southeast
United States. The ridge will cap any convection and cause afternoon
temperatures to rise into the upper 80s to around 90 each day.
Hello summertime!
58/rose
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 55 73 42 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Anniston 57 74 47 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Birmingham 58 77 48 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 58 80 49 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Calera 59 79 49 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Auburn 60 78 51 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 63 82 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Troy 60 81 48 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
08/05/58
