Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1123 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016
The stationary front located near Montgomery the past few days has
finally started moving southward. This movement was due to a
1040mb high pressure ridge in the northern plains. The pressure
gradient has tightened across central Alabama and winds should
remain 10 to 15 miles per hour overnight...with a few gusts into the 20s
possible. Therefore...not a radiational cooling night. This cold
will advect into the region from the north. This process has been
a bit slower than previously forecast but should ultimately catch
up by morning. Adjusted the temperatures trends but lows should
still bottom out in the 20s north and 30s south. Areas in the
north will just experience lesser time below freezing overnight.
A few stratocumulus clouds will graze northeast areas but will
have little impact elsewhere. Clouds will increase late tonight
and will be middle and high clouds from the northwest. Cool
conditions still anticipated on Saturday with highs from 35 to 50
06z taf discussion.
VFR conditions will remain in place over the forecast period.
Gusty winds will persist and will be the only aviation impact over
the next 24 hours. Northerly surface winds prevailing 10-12 knots
with a few gusts to 20 knots can be expected through much of the
overnight period. Winds may diminish shortly before sunrise
Saturday...then become gusty again by Saturday afternoon.
No fire weather concerns are expected at this time. A colder and
drier airmass will move into the region on Saturday with dew
points in the single digits and brisk northerly winds. Rain starts
to enter the picture late Sunday into Monday.
/issued 322 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016/
No big changes will be made to the ongoing 7 day forecast for
central Alabama. Cold and dry conditions are expected over the
next 24 to 36 hours.
All the "big" action still appears to come in the late Sunday to
early Tuesday time frame. Shortwave energy will round the base of
the eastern states longwave trough during this time frame...
leading to the formation of surface low pressure that subsequently
moves across the southeast states. Rain is forecast to break out
ahead of the surface low...likely moving into Alabama late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. We had previously had some mention of
light sleet in the forecast during this time...as systems such as
this are known to produce some sleet as the rain first moves in.
After looking at various thermal fields and Sample forecast
soundings...i've decided to remove the sleet from the forecast for
now. Any frozen precipitation that does fall should be very
brief...and surface temperatures will remain above freezing
through the duration so that no issues are expected to develop.
Warm advection during the day on Monday should boost temperatures
well into the 50s and 60s -- with the exception of the northeast
and perhaps east central counties...where the cad wedge will be a
bit difficult to overcome. Global models coming to a bit better
agreement on the timing of the rain moving out Monday
night...although there's still a hint of some wraparound moisture
causing some light rain/sprinkles in the far north on Tuesday.
A pattern shift to a less cold weather pattern is still indicated
for the middle to end of next week. It still remains to be seen
how long this moderating trend will last beyond that.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 26 38 22 48 38 / 0 0 0 20 50
Anniston 28 40 24 49 38 / 0 0 0 10 40
Birmingham 27 40 24 51 42 / 0 0 0 10 40
Tuscaloosa 30 44 24 54 43 / 0 0 0 10 50
Calera 30 43 26 52 41 / 0 0 0 10 40
Auburn 32 45 27 51 38 / 0 0 0 0 20
Montgomery 34 49 27 55 40 / 0 0 0 0 30
Troy 35 50 27 56 40 / 0 0 0 0 10