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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN ALABAMA. THE 
SPIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS VISIBLE WITH EVERY FORM OF REMOTE 
SENSING DATA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS CREATED 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING BEING 
OBSERVED. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S 
ALL DAY MAINLY IN LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. FURTHER 
SOUTH...THE SUN HAS COME OUT AT TIMES AND MONTGOMERY AND TROY HAVE 
WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO 
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING AND SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF 
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START THE WORK 
WEEK. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS 
EAST ALABAMA ON MONDAY BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND PW VALUES WILL BE DECREASING SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A VERY SIMILAR 
PATTERN TO THE LAST FEW DAYS SETS UP. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED 
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE 
ATMOSPHERE. PW VALUES WILL PICK UP INTO THE 1.7-1.9 INCH 
RANGE...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH 
THE LACK OF ANY STRONG JET OR OTHER UPPER LEVEL INFLUENCES...THE 
CLOSED LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING IN 
THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE GONE 
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT IF 
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS MORE THAN ADVERTISED EXPECT TEMPERATURES 
WOULD STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. 


05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION FORECAST REMAINS QUITE MESSY...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MOST TERMINALS. OFF AND
ON SHRA COULD LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...AND CONFIDENCE IS NOW
HIGH ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW CIGS
WILL LIKELY RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND HAVE GONE WITH IFR
CIGS FOR A MAJORITY OF SITES. LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...VIS COULD
BE IMPACTED AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR KTOI.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THRU THE DAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TO START THE WORK
WEEK BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD VALUES. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  84  68  89  69 /  40  20  10  10   0 
ANNISTON    68  85  68  89  70 /  40  20  10  10   0 
BIRMINGHAM  68  86  70  90  72 /  40  20  10  10   0 
TUSCALOOSA  68  90  70  93  73 /  40  10  10  10   0 
CALERA      69  86  70  90  72 /  40  10  10  10   0 
AUBURN      69  86  71  90  72 /  20  20  10  10  10 
MONTGOMERY  70  91  71  94  73 /  10  10  10  10  10 
TROY        70  90  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  10  10 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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