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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
335 am CDT Monday Aug 31 2015

Discussion...

A stagnant and relatively benign weather pattern should continue
for the next few days. An elongated trough will persist over the
Mississippi Valley region with 500mb anticyclonic flow and higher
heights over our area. Rain chances in this pattern will be 20
percent or less each day through Wednesday.

Model solutions begin to diverge by Thursday with the European model (ecmwf) and
Gem bringing the Mississippi Valley trough eastward and stalling
it across the forecast area. The GFS is not on board with this
idea and keeps the County Warning Area on the dry side as the trough remains well
to our west. Will lean on the European model (ecmwf)/Gem for this forecast with
30-40 probability of precipitation areawide for Thursday through Sunday.

87/Grantham

&&

Aviation...
06z taf discussion.

Upper low now beginning to exit central Alabama. Low ceilings will
likely return overnight...and have continued with IFR ceilings for a
majority of sites on the backside of the upper low. Like yesterday
morning...visible could be impacted as well...especially for ktoi.
Improving conditions after 15z with VFR by 18z at most sites.

16

&&

Fire weather...

Only isolated showers and storms are expected over the next
several days. Relative humidity values will remain above critical threshold
values. No fire weather concerns are expected at this time.

87

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 84 68 89 69 90 / 20 10 10 0 20
Anniston 84 69 89 70 91 / 20 10 10 0 20
Birmingham 85 70 90 72 91 / 20 10 10 0 20
Tuscaloosa 89 70 93 73 93 / 10 10 10 0 10
Calera 86 70 90 72 91 / 20 10 10 0 20
Auburn 86 70 90 72 90 / 20 10 10 10 20
Montgomery 91 71 94 73 94 / 20 10 10 10 20
Troy 90 71 93 73 93 / 20 10 10 10 20

&&

Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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