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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
555 am CST Monday Nov 30 2015

for 12z aviation.



Currently this morning we have a stationary surface front draped
across the northwest portions of central Alabama. It is expected
to meander some today as an upper wave moves through and keep the
main precipitation axis across the far northern part of the state.
Rain chances and maximum temperatures today will be somewhat similar
to Sunday with a 10-13 degree range in highs from northwest to
southeast as the southeast half of the forecast area will receive
little rain and occasional breaks in the cloud cover.

Also this morning across New Mexico...another low pressure system
along the Lee of The Rockies is intensifying with a front
developing. It will get swept up in the upper flow as an upper low
circles from the upper rockies into the upper plains. The surface
low will Circle to the northeast and north through tonight toward
the upper plains by Tuesday morning in response. As it does is expected to swing a front across the Central Plains and
western Gulf Coast states into Alabama. As it moves closer tonight
into Tuesday...our rain band will be allowed to shift further to
the south to encompass more of central Alabama.

By the surface low moves across the Great Lakes
toward New England...this front will finally get the push it needs
to push our rain to the east/southeast and out of the area for
the most part by Wednesday evening. Will continue to leave low
probability of precipitation in the far southeast for one more day through Thursday with a
bit of lingering moisture. Starting Wednesday...look for cooler
temperatures (back to more normal readings for this time of
year...maybe even a degree or two cooler) to return to central
Alabama. A large high pressure ridge will push across much of
Continental U.S. Wednesday into Thursday and overtaking eastern Continental U.S. By
Friday and Saturday. This will allow for drier and cooler air
across the area for the latter half of the week and into the

In the far next Monday...guidance is trying to push
another front across the south to break up the ridging to give US
another shot for showers. There are large disagreements in timing
for this next system. So with low confidence...I will only
mention low probability of precipitation at this time as it could end up getting pushed
back a day as models resolve the timing.



12z taf discussion.

Clouds have become a bit more problematic in the central Alabama
over the last 24 hours. Despite the rain largely
retreating...there were some pockets of lower ceilings (below 2000
ft). Would be easier if they were larger than "pockets" of lower
clouds. But unfortunately that is not the case...and we will have
to deal with (at least the possibility of) tempo MVFR conditions
at tcl and bhm for several hours this morning. In the far
south (namely at toi)...where thinner higher clouds have allowed
temperatures to drop to the dewpoint...some radiational fog and stratus
has formed. This should be pretty short-lived. In fact...the
models suggest that conditions should improve everywhere...and by
17z or 18z all locations should be back at VFR. The patchy showers
just north of tcl/bhm/anb are expected to stay north for the time



Fire weather...

Increased rain chances continue across the northwest part of
central Alabama...expanding slowly to near the Interstate 20
corridor through tonight. More persistent rains will spread south
of Interstate 20 on Tuesday into Wednesday. A front will then move
through bringing drier conditions by early Thursday. There are no
fire weather concerns.



Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...



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